All Football Tips w/c 19th February

Everton vs Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have an injury crisis right now. Their attack has been extremely reliant on two players, Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise, and both have been ruled out for this match.
The Eagles are also missing Guehi in centre defence.
It looks like they will have a hard time breaking Everton's defense.

Bet 1: Everton @1.72
Bet 2: Everton win to nil @2.73 - 2 beers

Thanks Quill, you read my mind for tonights game so I wont bother with a write up Following you on both bets.

Chris mentioned in his midweek preview betting for the PL about the EFL Cup, if I may, can I just vent a little here. Sunday is the EFL Cup Final between Liverpool and Chelsea (Same weekend as GW26 of PL).

GW 26 was supposed to be Liverpool vs Luton and Chelsea vs Spurs. The Liverpool game gets rescheduled for this midweek, while Chelsea game does not.
So Liverpool play Saturday (17th), Wednesday (21st) and Sunday (25th)
While Chelsea play Saturday (17th) and Sunday (25th).

How is that fair on Liverpool? Chelsea have an extra week to prepare!

Anyway that leads me to my bet for the Liverpool vs Luton game on Wednesday night.

Liverpool are killed with injuries both long and short term, it's no longer about boosting GD, etc, its about surviving each game and somehow trying to get the three points. I think Klopp rotates here with one eye on the final this weekend, all that matters is three points and not a big thrashing. Luton dont get thrashed anyway and they should give Liverpool a competitive game. Taking an alt line bet builder at Sunbet.

Luton 3+ corners, 2+ shots on target & 4+ goal handicap - 12/10

City vs Brentford (Tuesday)

I think we will see a reaction from City tomorrow night after their surprise draw with Chelsea over the weekend. As south mentioned at the weekend, these three teams are pushing for GD now hence more shots and goals. City are behind both Arsenal and Liverpool with GD and should have a good chance to boost theirs Tuesday.

Man City to score 4+ goals - 19/10

Athletic Bilbao vs Girona

Girona got ripped to shreds by Real Madrid last time out (0-4) and they exploited some major weaknesses in the Girona defense that Bilbao can absolutely take advantage of.

The Girona offense is still really good as they are averaging 1.69 xG per 90 minutes, but they’ve been drastically over-performing, scoring 52 goals off of 40.6 expected and regression is starting to hit them. In their last three matches Girona has only scored once and has failed to create over one expected goal in any of those matches.

The defense performances lately against teams like Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad have been good, but what is clear is when Girona face good offenses, especially those that are good in transition and have the pace to play ball in behind their high line, they are in big trouble.

Athletic Bilbao are a team that primarily plays better in transition and have the pace to completely wreck Girona. They are top five in xG and shots.

Athletic Bilbao are also the best defensive team in La Liga, allowing only 0.91 npxG per 90 minutes. They are incredibly difficult to break down once they settle in their 4-4-2 mid-block.
Athletic Bilbao have been very good at home this season.

Bet: Athletic Bilbao @1.85

Everton v Crystal Palace
I am going to miss Hodgson as I really enjoyed his attacking approach. The new Austrian dude Glasner has the same outlook on football and he has nothing to lose this evening. Just has to be an open match and I am taking a full bet on

Over 2.5 match goals @ 5/4

Melbourne Victory vs Western United

Bet 1: Melbourne Victory -1.25 @1.98
Bet 2: Victory wins + Fornaroli scores anytime @2.10

PSV vs Borussia Dortmund

Bet: PSV @2.09

Inter vs Atletico Madrid

Bet 1: Inter @1.72
Bet 2: Over 2.5 goals @2.06

Naidoo wrote: Thanks Quill, you read my mind for tonights game so I wont bother with a write up Following you on both bets.

Chris mentioned in his midweek preview betting for the PL about the EFL Cup, if I may, can I just vent a little here. Sunday is the EFL Cup Final between Liverpool and Chelsea (Same weekend as GW26 of PL).

GW 26 was supposed to be Liverpool vs Luton and Chelsea vs Spurs. The Liverpool game gets rescheduled for this midweek, while Chelsea game does not.
So Liverpool play Saturday (17th), Wednesday (21st) and Sunday (25th)
While Chelsea play Saturday (17th) and Sunday (25th).

How is that fair on Liverpool? Chelsea have an extra week to prepare!

Anyway that leads me to my bet for the Liverpool vs Luton game on Wednesday night.

Liverpool are killed with injuries both long and short term, it's no longer about boosting GD, etc, its about surviving each game and somehow trying to get the three points. I think Klopp rotates here with one eye on the final this weekend, all that matters is three points and not a big thrashing. Luton dont get thrashed anyway and they should give Liverpool a competitive game. Taking an alt line bet builder at Sunbet.

Luton 3+ corners, 2+ shots on target & 4+ goal handicap - 12/10

Adding Cody Gakpo over 2.5 shots at 9/10 for tonight. With no Jota, Nunez and Salah its up to Gakpo and Diaz to fire Liverpool tonight.

Porto vs Arsenal

Porto has had some very good results in past Champions League competitions, but this team is far less talented and in far worse form than they've been in the past.

If you look at the Portuguese Primeira Liga table right now, Sporting and Benfica are very clearly the first and second best teams, with Porto only having a +0.81 xGD per 90 minutes.

Arsenal have made a pretty big change tactically and it’s made them incredibly difficult for opposing teams to prepare for.

The last few matches they have been playing Trossard as a false nine, but the reality is that the entire Arsenal attacking structure is fluid. We often see Odegaard, Havertz or Trossard drop deep in build up, which allows Arsenal to have numerical superiority as they move the ball through the first and second phases if teams do not choose to go man to man. If opposing defences go man to man, Trossard and Odegaard will pull center backs or defensive midfielders out of position, which allows space for Martinelli and Saka to make runs at or in behind the opposing back line.

This is the third match since Arsenal have made this change and they’ve scored 14 goals in those three matches, so we can say that teams are having a difficult time trying to figure out how to defend the Gunners.

Bet 1: Arsenal @1.66
Bet 2: Arsenal + Liverpool @2.14

Napoli vs Barcelona

Bet: Over 2.5 goals @1.78

Quill wrote: Porto vs Arsenal

Porto has had some very good results in past Champions League competitions, but this team is far less talented and in far worse form than they've been in the past.

If you look at the Portuguese Primeira Liga table right now, Sporting and Benfica are very clearly the first and second best teams, with Porto only having a +0.81 xGD per 90 minutes.

Arsenal have made a pretty big change tactically and it’s made them incredibly difficult for opposing teams to prepare for.

The last few matches they have been playing Trossard as a false nine, but the reality is that the entire Arsenal attacking structure is fluid. We often see Odegaard, Havertz or Trossard drop deep in build up, which allows Arsenal to have numerical superiority as they move the ball through the first and second phases if teams do not choose to go man to man. If opposing defences go man to man, Trossard and Odegaard will pull center backs or defensive midfielders out of position, which allows space for Martinelli and Saka to make runs at or in behind the opposing back line.

This is the third match since Arsenal have made this change and they’ve scored 14 goals in those three matches, so we can say that teams are having a difficult time trying to figure out how to defend the Gunners.

Bet 1: Arsenal @1.66
Bet 2: Arsenal + Liverpool @2.14

Thanks Quill, love this write up and tactical insight into Arsenal playing style. Brilliant work and gives us more confidence for these bets. Goodluck for tonight.

For an evening interest am taking

Luton over 0.5 goals and
over 1.5 goals by Arsenal + Napoli
@ 6/1

Sparta Prague vs Galatasaray

The first leg between these two was very entertaining (2-3).

Galatasaray's matches domestically are averaging 3.22 xG and it's because they play quick transitions and use vertical passes to play balls in behind the opponents back line. They played the same way in the Champions League group stage, creating 9.8 expected goals in their three matches, including two performances where they created over 2.5 expected goals against Manchester United and Bayern Munich.

Sparta Prague showed in the first leg that they have the talent to be really dangerous on the break.

Their matches this year have also been pretty high events, averaging 3.13 expected goals in the Czech first division.
They were very successful during the Europa League group stage, as they led the competition in aerial duels won and will be able to continue to cause problems for Galatasaray, who will be without their best defender Victor Nelsson.

Bet: Over 3.0 goals @1.88

Rennes vs Milan (0-3)

Milan will not be motivated to attack too much, because of the 3 goals cushion they have.
Rennes will have to go all out and they may be able to score.
That's why I expect Milan to go for a goal of their own, which will open up the game.

Bet: Over 2.5 goals @1.85

Sparta Prague vs Galata over 2.5 goals
Rennes vs Milan over 1.5 goals

Double @1.89

Nice job yet again tonight Quill.

mackem wrote: Nice work Quill ....!!!!

Chelsea v Liverpool, EFL Cup Final

goodforthegame.co.za/English-Football/ch...y-25th-february.html

I'm with Chelsea at 22/10

You hurting me here Chris with the Chelsea pick!

No man Chris, dont like that Chelsea pick at all.

EPL + EFL Cup Acca
Villa, United, City, Arsenal, Wolves all to win & Liverpool to lift the cup - 11/1

Nice on the Europa League Quill

Manchester United v Fulham

Not a fan of goals in this match without Hojlund and any left wing back. Two from the exotics and a bet builder. Have M Oliver so not great for cards but he does average over 4 a match and ManU have racked up 61 in their 25 matches to date.

Match Bookings
Man Utd over 1.5 @ 8/10

Total shots
Antony over 2.5 @ 14/10 Presuming he has to start with the injury list.

Bet builder
BTTS - Yes/Cards over 3.5/Corners over 10.5 @ 4/1

The Vann wrote: Nice on the Europa League Quill

Manchester United v Fulham

Not a fan of goals in this match without Hojlund and any left wing back. Two from the exotics and a bet builder. Have M Oliver so not great for cards but he does average over 4 a match and ManU have racked up 61 in their 25 matches to date.

Match Bookings
Man Utd over 1.5 @ 8/10

Total shots
Antony over 2.5 @ 14/10 Presuming he has to start with the injury list.

Bet builder
BTTS - Yes/Cards over 3.5/Corners over 10.5 @ 4/1

Antony on bench. Cashed in the shots and replaced with a few beers

Last goal scorer
Antony @ 8/1

One goal out a monster acca last week. A bit more conservative this time -

Blackburn V Norwich
Ipswich V Birmingham
Middlesbrough V Plymouth
Southampton V Millwall
Aston Villa V Nottingham Forest
Brighton V Everton
Manchester United V Fulham

Over 2.5 goals @ 26/1

Top 3 all chasing goal difference -

Man City over 19.5 shots
Arsenal over 17.5 shots

Double @ 9/4

Man City + Newcastle over 1.5 goals @ 4/1

EPL Sunday
Wolves over 2.5 goals - 17/10

EFL Cup Final
Liverpool to win in 90 mins - 13/10
Enzo & Endo both to be carded - 13/1

Australian A-League

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur

Jets are second last on the ladder and are not going too well.
Their last match was a defeat to the rock bottom team, Western United, a team that also scored the least amount of goals so far.

Macarthur lost their last match too, but to the top team, Wellington Phoenix.

There is a big difference between the two defeats.

Macarthur is sitting 4th-5th and pushes for a higher finish, being only 3 points behind the second spot, and that would bring advantages in the play-off (fewer games and home games).

Three days ago Macarthur played at home in the AFC Cup and lost in extra time to Central Coast Mariners (it was an all-Aussie affair). Now they can focus on the league.

The difference is clear between these two teams, but Macarthur does not get enough respect from the bookies, with the odds given as if they were bottom on the ladder.

Bet: Macarthur or draw @1.95

Melbourne Victory vs CC Mariners

Mariners qualified in the AFC Cup 3 days ago, winning in extra time away to Macarthur (played not far from their own stadium, actually, as both are from NSW).

Victory and Mariners are sitting 2nd and 3rd on the ladder equal on points, and in their two previous meetings this season they drew both times.

Last time out, Victory struggled mightily to win at home against the rock bottom Western United, scoring twice in the 95th and 97th minutes, with seconds left on the clock, after they were led 1-0.

The odds on Mariners are big considering that they are in good form and Victory has a long series of draws and struggle to win, but also to score (only 6 goals in their last 7 matches).

If the Mariners haven't played 3 days ago a fatiguing 120 minutes game in the Asian Cup, I'd have taken X2 on the Mariners and goals.
Melbourne Victory however have been waiting for them at home and watched the Mariners game on tv.

Bet 1: Draw @3.70 - half stake
Bet 2: Total corners over 11.0 (asian) @1.75

Shots line a bit too high for a cup match.

Liverpool over 1.5 goals @ 10/11

Wolves v Sheff Utd

Build - A - Bet
Wolves over 1.5 match goals and over 6.5 corners @ 9/5


Afternoon beers

Chelsea to win cup/Wolves win/Italy over 13.5pts @ 5/1