Super Rugby Week 2, URC Week 11 + other rugby 01-03 March
- Brent Graham
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Chased on Highlanders over 5.5 tries but they couldn't score in the last 8 minutes. Followed Mondo on Tahs over 9.5 1st half to stop the bleeding and although the under 52.5 arrived in Dublin I hesitated to get really involved and when I wanted to the line had moved (as Hanrick and TOS predicted).
Came out of my shell to back France over 5.5 tries and that was a disaster
One of those weekends where I chose wrong options despite calling a number of caps.
Given the above it may surprise you that I am looking forward to this weekend and am lining up 1 bet in particular in Super Rugby
On that note here are my Super Rugby projected handicaps - note all games played in Melbourne
Highlanders +10.5 v Blues
Rebels -4.5 v Force
Moana +7.5 v Drua
Crusaders -14.5 v Waratahs
Chiefs -8.5 v Brumbies
Hurricanes -7.5 v Reds
There is also a full house of URC action and here are my cap projections (I expect to be closer with Super Rugby caps, battle with URC during 6 Nations)
Munster -18.5 v Zebre
Edinburgh -8.5 v Ospreys
Lions -3.5 v Sharks
Benetton +5.5 v Glasgow
Bulls -3.5 v Stormers
Connacht -18.5 v Scarlets
Cardiff +16.5 v Leinster
Ulster -22.5 v Dragons
As far as the YOU TUBE channel goes we will have a live Super Rugby show 09h00 Thursday and a live URC show (plus Super Rugby no doubt)
Have a great week
BG
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- R3V3R3NT_
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- Brent Graham
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Highlanders +10.5 (-14.5) v Blues 58.5
Rebels -4.5 (-4.5) v Force 57.5
Moana +7.5 (+9.5) v Drua 62.5
Crusaders -14.5 (-17.5) v Waratahs 57.5
Chiefs -8.5 (-8.5) v Brumbies 57.5
Hurricanes -7.5 (-10.5) v Reds 58.5
Weather looks decent in Melbourne and last years Super Round averaged a massive 69.8 points with only Blues v Brumbies (45) dipping under 63 points
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- hanrick
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Have taken a trebble of Landers +14.5/Force +4.5/Moana +9.5. Will also back all 3 single plusses and all 3 as singles to win the games.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- shaft
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R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Took Moana +10.5. The attitude of teams often emulate that of their head coach. Umaga is a hard-nosed defensive minded rugby player. Byrne is an Aussie rules skills coach. Fiji is just out there playing touch. Force them to play rugby and they will fall apart. Moana isn't playing island ball this year, will take them to win as well.
I agree Rev I like this. I could only get +9.5 but happy with it
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Kirky
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Super Rugby for 5 units, all the favourites to win @ 4.19 at Sunbet, and the same at Pokerbet.
Following Hanrick on the Highlanders +13.5, and Moana +9.5, and the double each for 2 units.
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- Mondo86
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Cheeky double -
Rebels vs Force - 1st Half under 30 points & Blues under 35.5 points @ 3.4
Blues have only scored more than 35.5 against the Landers 2 out of last 10 and Rebels and Force are as good on the attack as a koala bear.
Also,
Moana +4.5 HT looks to be an error by the books - I like this very very much at this stage of the week!
Edinburgh W & Sharks W @ 2.83 - I really like Siya Masuka and Curwin Bosch may as well start learning Japanese. Only a small dabble for now.
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- Brent Graham
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Munster -18.5 (-25.5) v Zebre
Edinburgh -8.5 (-9.5) v Ospreys
Lions -3.5 (-2.5) v Sharks
Benetton +5.5 (+3.5)v Glasgow
Bulls -3.5 (-6.5) v Stormers
Connacht -18.5 (-17.5) v Scarlets
Cardiff +16.5 (+13.5) v Leinster
Ulster -22.5 (-20.5)v Dragons
The big difference is Munster but I will concede to the bookies here rather than steam into the +25.5 Zebre LOL
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- TheAdmiral
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- Pablo
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Line in Pinnacle 3 points better than other bookies so intrinsec value here.
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- Laraxwell
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A list is voted by an expert panel and then the list is exposed to a public vote. Antoine Dupont won this for the last 2 years.
Only 2 rounds left but there are still some decent options.
Can't be having Dan Sheehan or Duhan van der Merwe at 2/1 odds
Though rested for the match v Italy, both Bundee Aki and Tadgh Beirne have had good championships so far.
Thought Beirne should have been MotM v France and Aki won MotM last wkend v Wales.
Both have decent shots at making that list. Both are popular too so no harm when it comes to public voting.
2 small plays then for PotT :
Bundee Aki @ 10/1
Tadgh Beirne @ 14/1
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- Brent Graham
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Click here to set a reminder on You Tube
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- Pablo
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BOP in disarray, today president Aldigué said that he wants to sell the club for 1€ to anyone who wants to solve the difficult finantial situation so told the Biarritz Major to find someone as soon as possible or the club may not end the season. I don't think Biarritz players are in the best mental position to receive the leaders.
Not based on lineups or players news, I think there is value based on BOP situation. Vannes should rotate some players but even with that there is lot of firepower in their squad.
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- Laraxwell
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Pablo wrote: Vannes dnb @2 2u
BOP in disarray, today president Aldigué said that he wants to sell the club for 1€ to anyone who wants to solve the difficult finantial situation so told the Biarritz Major to find someone as soon as possible or the club may not end the season. I don't think Biarritz players are in the best mental position to receive the leaders.
Not based on lineups or players news, I think there is value based on BOP situation. Vannes should rotate some players but even with that there is lot of firepower in their squad.
Appreciate the intel, Pablo.
But one could argue that this might galvanise the Biarritz players. They also might be back in the shop window soon so should be anxious to do well
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- Brent Graham
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Focus will be on SA derbies and Super Rugby, will touch on the other URC games
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- southpaw
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Reb force over 55.5
Double @ 5/2
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- Chiefie
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southpaw wrote: High blues over 57.5
Reb force over 55.5
Double @ 5/2
Sorry south, have to oppose on this one. Can see both going under personally, after that second half performance from the blues and the rebels entire performance, can’t see either games going over.
And the refs are both horror shows.
As much as I want to see free flowing games, just can’t.
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- Brent Graham
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- hanrick
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- Chiefie
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southpaw wrote: High blues over 57.5
Reb force over 55.5
Double @ 5/2
First try in 1min. You’re looking good south, I’m toast.
Lol
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
southpaw wrote: High blues over 57.5
Reb force over 55.5
Double @ 5/2
First try in 1min. You’re looking good south, I’m toast.
Lol
Make that 3 tries in 10 min.
Super touch is back!
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- hanrick
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hanrick wrote: Main bet Highlanders +13.5. Aso taken a small bet on them to win the game. Then also Landers over 21.5 points at 17/20. Sam Gilbert kicks really well at posts so the points line feels low.
LOL, Gilbert 0 from 3 attempts at posts
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- Quill
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You must have jinxed him, Hanrick!hanrick wrote:
hanrick wrote: Main bet Highlanders +13.5. Aso taken a small bet on them to win the game. Then also Landers over 21.5 points at 17/20. Sam Gilbert kicks really well at posts so the points line feels low.
LOL, Gilbert 0 from 3 attempts at posts
Anyway, I'm on the same bets as you.
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- Chiefie
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Quill wrote:
You must have jinxed him, Hanrick!hanrick wrote:
hanrick wrote: Main bet Highlanders +13.5. Aso taken a small bet on them to win the game. Then also Landers over 21.5 points at 17/20. Sam Gilbert kicks really well at posts so the points line feels low.
LOL, Gilbert 0 from 3 attempts at posts
Anyway, I'm on the same bets as you.
Well thanks to a 120m try from the blues and 0 kicks from the landers, blues win this by plenty and the under is dead.
Friday curse has finally found me.
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- Jameson
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- Chiefie
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Jameson wrote: How to throw a game away just before HT ffs.
Madness. Honestly madness.
These guys are playing exhibition rugga out there.
Reckon we get to about 80+ points in this game.
It takes maybe 2-3 phases or up the middle and it’s a guaranteed try.
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- Jameson
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Chiefie wrote:
Jameson wrote: How to throw a game away just before HT ffs.
Madness. Honestly madness.
These guys are playing exhibition rugga out there.
Reckon we get to about 80+ points in this game.
It takes maybe 2-3 phases or up the middle and it’s a guaranteed try.
That's 21 points conceded in less than 10 mins. Professionals??
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- Chiefie
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Jameson wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Jameson wrote: How to throw a game away just before HT ffs.
Madness. Honestly madness.
These guys are playing exhibition rugga out there.
Reckon we get to about 80+ points in this game.
It takes maybe 2-3 phases or up the middle and it’s a guaranteed try.
That's 21 points conceded in less than 10 mins. Professionals??
Guys on a holiday here.
Blues to win by 50.
Reckon the pre-season has skewed views on the highlanders here. They’re dog.
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- Brent Graham
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- Chiefie
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Brent Graham wrote: Lads I am all in on Rebels over 31.5 - need my head read I know
Brent please. You’re scaring me.
Is someone forcing you to back the rebels?
Blink twice if you’re in danger.
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Jameson wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Jameson wrote: How to throw a game away just before HT ffs.
Madness. Honestly madness.
These guys are playing exhibition rugga out there.
Reckon we get to about 80+ points in this game.
It takes maybe 2-3 phases or up the middle and it’s a guaranteed try.
That's 21 points conceded in less than 10 mins. Professionals??
Guys on a holiday here.
Blues to win by 50.
Reckon the pre-season has skewed views on the highlanders here. They’re dog.
Finally, a bit of luck.
Nice one Hanrick and all the +12.5 backers.
Overs was always the bet. Madness on my behalf to call unders playing on a cricket pitch.
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- Jameson
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- hanrick
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- Chiefie
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hanrick wrote: Loaded up on Force +4.5 and +5.5 early in the week. Taken more +6.5 and +7.5 now. Wanted to take Force over 23.5, but can't take an overs bet when Nic Berry is the ref.
Heavily invested in under 57.5 and on Force +8.5
God I pray for the most dire, error ridden, scrum heavy, whistle blowing nightmare of a game.
Will be cheering on the worst game in rugby history.
We hope.
(Sorry Brent).
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- Chiefie
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So.... my bet is dead.
Friday suckssss.
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- Flemenstar
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- Chiefie
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Flemenstar wrote: You've said above you are on Force +8.5, that's not dead. You are very negative. I can be bad too
Hard to remain positive when your beat is dead after 53mins.
58 points in 54mins.
Mental.
Will be cheering on the force to soften the blow.
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- Jameson
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- southpaw
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Chiefie wrote:
southpaw wrote: High blues over 57.5
Reb force over 55.5
Double @ 5/2
Sorry south, have to oppose on this one. Can see both going under personally, after that second half performance from the blues and the rebels entire performance, can’t see either games going over.
And the refs are both horror shows.
As much as I want to see free flowing games, just can’t.
easy money in the end. Lovely start to weekend.
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- Chiefie
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M yeah good job man! That was easy!southpaw wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
southpaw wrote: High blues over 57.5
Reb force over 55.5
Double @ 5/2
Sorry south, have to oppose on this one. Can see both going under personally, after that second half performance from the blues and the rebels entire performance, can’t see either games going over.
And the refs are both horror shows.
As much as I want to see free flowing games, just can’t.
easy money in the end. Lovely start to weekend.
Not sure if anyone is watching, but wasn’t Daugunu about a metre in front of the kicker on that try??
Why is this not even being checked?
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- Jameson
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- Chiefie
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Jameson wrote: I dont recall a turnaround quite like that. At one point, I hovered over the cash in button that would have got me 80% of the bet winning profits but I thought Rebels would have to score 3 converted tries and another score without a reply and no way is that ever going to happen!!!!!!
Yeah disasterclass from yours truly.
Think it was 34-15 at 50 mins.
Ended 48-34.
Shambles.
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- Pablo
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I like their lineup and they are very strong at home. Should be more favourites.
In France I took u43.5 2u in Bayonne and Paris due to rain, expect both lines to open in bet365 around 40.5 so some value there.
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- Brad Breath
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Pablo wrote: Benetton dnb @2 2u
I like their lineup and they are very strong at home. Should be more favourites.
Came on to post Bennies also, got +1.5 @ 1.91 with 365
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- TheAdmiral
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Zebre have never scored more than 14 in thomond and with their away form I don’t see that changing
Ospreys been in great form and Edinburgh have struggled without internationals for a while. Maybe some rain about too, hoping for a tight game
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- Laraxwell
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Wet afternoon forecast but looks ok later
Plays:
Niall Scannell ATS @ 10/11
Munster Over 6.5 tries @ Evens
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- Jameson
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EDIT, got over 40.5
EDIT2 Keystone cop shit and a new losing streak is on No 2......
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- Brent Graham
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- Flemenstar
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- Flemenstar
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How haven't Munster covered, gifted them tries. Useless pricks
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