Six Nations Rd 4, Super Rugby Rd 3 + other rugby 8-10 March

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1 month 3 weeks ago - 1 month 3 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham
I came out on top of the bookies this week but feel I should of capitalised more having predicted Melbourne would be an overs paradise.
The Crusaders let me down in the Best Bet but the 12/1 newsletter acca arrived to save the day - Subscribe to my weekly rambles here

This week we have 6 Nations and Super Rugby Round 3

Six Nations Handicaps

Italy +11.5 v Scotland
England +11.5 v Ireland
Wales +6.5 v France

Super Rugby my projected handicaps

Moana +6.5 v Rebels (Played at North harbour Stadium) Edit - Turf issues and its been moved to Hamilton - thanks BB
Waratahs -4.5 v Highlanders
Drua +9.5 v Crusaders (in Fiji, 3am kick off)
Brumbies -15.5 v Force
Hurricanes +0.5 v Blues
Reds +8.5 v Chiefs

We will have a Super Rugby show at 9am this week and a Six Nations (with Super Rugby) at 21h00 - both on Thursday

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Last edit: 1 month 3 weeks ago by Brent Graham. Reason: heading correction

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1 month 3 weeks ago #2 by TheAdmiral
Reds opening 15 point underdogs in NZ and force opening 18 point dogs.

Praying those lines stay for the rest of us

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1 month 3 weeks ago #3 by Brent Graham
Pokerbet out with caps and points - there handicaps in brackets

Moana +6.5 (+4.5) v Rebels, Points 61.5
Waratahs -4.5 (-4.5) v Highlanders, Points 58.5
Drua +9.5 (+6.5) v Crusaders, Points 62.5
Brumbies -15.5 (-18.5) v Force, Points 59.5
Hurricanes +0.5 (+2.5) v Blues, Points 56.5
Reds +8.5 (+11.5) v Chiefs, Points 57.5

No massive differences

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1 month 3 weeks ago #4 by southpaw
I like Blues -2.5 or any better if i can find it.

Squad was rotated and still accounted for a competitive Highlanders team. Will have a few back, whereas Canes will definitely lose JB for a few weeks. Big miss.

Also one to factor in - Blues 2 days extra rest and recover vs Canes who played Sunday, taken all way, i think their side looked knackered and don't have the depth Blues have.
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1 month 3 weeks ago #5 by Brad Breath
For awareness the Moana match is being played at FMG Stadium in Hamilton, (the Chiefs home ground).
Turf issues at North Harbour stadium.

No really strong early fancies, but have had a nibble on Landers +4.5
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1 month 3 weeks ago #6 by Pablo
I took u44.5 @1.80 2u in Montpellier-Bordeaux, very bad weather expected.
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1 month 3 weeks ago #7 by Brent Graham
Very little early line movement in Super Rugby although Drua getting closer to my projected +9.5 and gone +8.5 from +6.5

NOTE: This weeks Super Rugby show will be live at 20h30 tonight - link to follow

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1 month 3 weeks ago #8 by Brent Graham
Join us live at 20h30 tonight before The Mossman moves markets

Click here to watch on You Tube


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1 month 3 weeks ago #9 by Jameson
England +12 at Twickers?

As much as I'd like to see the great white Orcs get reamed here, I think they'll be having some of my money on the plus.

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1 month 3 weeks ago #10 by Zambusta
Twickenham is not the fortress it once was.
Ireland is looking very clinical and systems are humming, and they also have the chance to achieve the Super Grand Slam for the first time in the tournament's history.
Add to that the reports of upheaval in the England camp about the new defensive system.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #11 by Pablo
Small interest tonight in Provence +8.5 @1.80 for 1u. Both teams going strong with almost no absences so this may be an arm wrestler.
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1 month 2 weeks ago #12 by WelshWizard
Just wanted to say, Nathan is a great guest on the show.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #13 by Brent Graham
Agree WelshWizard he is top class

Tonights we focus on Six Nations and look forward to chatting to Harry live at 21h00

Set a reminder on You Tube


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1 month 2 weeks ago #14 by Pablo

Pablo wrote: Small interest tonight in Provence +8.5 @1.80 for 1u. Both teams going strong with almost no absences so this may be an arm wrestler.


And Brive -14.5 @1.8 for 1u as well. Big rotation Agen but Brive this year is underperforming so small confidence 1u.
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1 month 2 weeks ago #15 by southpaw
got some free time tonight, decide between football or rugby, going for the u20 six nations -

wales vs france over 51.5 pts @ 5/6

dry, clear, 3g pitch, hoping both defences are loose.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #16 by Brent Graham

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1 month 2 weeks ago #17 by Jameson

southpaw wrote: got some free time tonight, decide between football or rugby, going for the u20 six nations -

wales vs france over 51.5 pts @ 5/6

dry, clear, 3g pitch, hoping both defences are loose.


Took a while to arrive in that 2nd half!

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1 month 2 weeks ago - 1 month 2 weeks ago #18 by southpaw

Jameson wrote:

southpaw wrote: got some free time tonight, decide between football or rugby, going for the u20 six nations -

wales vs france over 51.5 pts @ 5/6

dry, clear, 3g pitch, hoping both defences are loose.


Took a while to arrive in that 2nd half!


Yeh an unnecessary sweat when 33 pts at the break, so many wasted chances but all good in the end, got the juices flowing for a mammoth rugby punting weekend ahead!
Last edit: 1 month 2 weeks ago by southpaw.
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1 month 2 weeks ago #19 by Naidoo
Moana vs Rebels

Trying a Bet Builder at Hollywoodbets.

Moana +15.5
Both teams to score 2+ tries
Over 54.5 match points

@ 21/20

Twitter handle @vinolin_naidoo

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1 month 2 weeks ago #20 by Kirky

Pablo wrote: Small interest tonight in Provence +8.5 @1.80 for 1u. Both teams going strong with almost no absences so this may be an arm wrestler.

Good call mate, I was on Nevers straight 1-12 for a unit.
But I took Nevers W @ 1.45 as 1st leg of 5 multis.

So I'm a cheerful chappie this morning, both of us :woohoo: :beer

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1 month 2 weeks ago #21 by Brent Graham
Firing over 8.5 tries at 8/10 in Rebels game

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1 month 2 weeks ago #22 by Chiefie
Thanks Carter Gordon you absolute clown.

Kid cannot kick.

Bet builder:

Over 0.5 tries in the FH for each team.
Over 1.5 Tries each team
Moana +15.5
Over 52.5

Ends 29-23

Ends on 52 points thanks to about 4 missed kicks, 1 to the right of the upright

Sickening.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #23 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote: Thanks Carter Gordon you absolute clown.

Kid cannot kick.

Bet builder:

Over 0.5 tries in the FH for each team.
Over 1.5 Tries each team
Moana +15.5
Over 52.5

Ends 29-23

Ends on 52 points thanks to about 4 missed kicks, 1 to the right of the upright

Sickening.


'Just' the 6 points missed I think - but still, if he had kicked those then I would have won the in play overs. Grim!

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1 month 2 weeks ago #24 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote: Thanks Carter Gordon you absolute clown.

Kid cannot kick.

Bet builder:

Over 0.5 tries in the FH for each team.
Over 1.5 Tries each team
Moana +15.5
Over 52.5

Ends 29-23

Ends on 52 points thanks to about 4 missed kicks, 1 to the right of the upright

Sickening.


'Just' the 6 points missed I think - but still, if he had kicked those then I would have won the in play overs. Grim!


Yep, 2 missed by Carter and 1 by Tuttle.

Missing a conversion to the right of the goal post 20 out is ridiculous man. Ugh.

Pickerill delivers his final unders in his last game. Had to be.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #25 by Brent Graham
Poor start for me, over 8.5 tries never looked a runner after the 1st 15 min when Pickerell found his unders rhythm - my bad for not checking the ref

Waratahs to get me back on track - win at 17/20

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1 month 2 weeks ago #26 by southpaw
Tournament has seen games that don't look like overs matches turn into free-flowing games. Hoping for similar next -

tahs highlanders over 56.5 @ 5/6

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1 month 2 weeks ago #27 by Brent Graham
Italy v Scotland Preview

Over 48.5 at 9/10

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1 month 2 weeks ago - 1 month 2 weeks ago #28 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote: Thanks Carter Gordon you absolute clown.

Kid cannot kick.

Bet builder:

Over 0.5 tries in the FH for each team.
Over 1.5 Tries each team
Moana +15.5
Over 52.5

Ends 29-23

Ends on 52 points thanks to about 4 missed kicks, 1 to the right of the upright

Sickening.


'Just' the 6 points missed I think - but still, if he had kicked those then I would have won the in play overs. Grim!


Yep, 2 missed by Carter and 1 by Tuttle.

Missing a conversion to the right of the goal post 20 out is ridiculous man. Ugh.

Pickerill delivers his final unders in his last game. Had to be.


lol - meanwhile, my Waratahs -2 is losing after 3 mins .... :-)

EDIT ffs 0 - 10 after 5 mins ....
Last edit: 1 month 2 weeks ago by Jameson.

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1 month 2 weeks ago - 1 month 2 weeks ago #29 by Pablo

Kirky wrote: Good call mate, I was on Nevers straight 1-12 for a unit.
But I took Nevers W @ 1.45 as 1st leg of 5 multis.

So I'm a cheerful chappie this morning, both of us :woohoo: :beer


Nice on Nevers, today I'm making some combo with Béziers+3, MDM +8 and maybe u45.5 in Angouleme.

MDM +8 ha @1.85 for 1u as well
Last edit: 1 month 2 weeks ago by Pablo.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #30 by Brent Graham
Waratahs blew that one - just couldn't convert which is a feature of Aussie teams - poor start to me and last weekend already a distant memory

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1 month 2 weeks ago #31 by Jameson
Piss poor. Already in a losing rut and its not even Friday lunchtime!!

I need a 2nd job lol

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1 month 2 weeks ago #32 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote: Piss poor. Already in a losing rut and its not even Friday lunchtime!!

I need a 2nd job lol


Well I had:
Over 8.5 FH points each team (ended 16-13)
And over 22.5 points each team

Ends 21-23

Edmund, the ginger goblin misses 3 kicks and sinks any hope of over 22.5

How you only score 5 points in the second half is ridiculous

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1 month 2 weeks ago #33 by Pablo
Everything above 50 points in Clermont is good for an under. I took u53.5, u52.5 and u51.5 for 2u in total due to very bad weather expected.

Oyonnax is a crap in defence but I hope bad weather keeps this score in the unders.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #34 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote: Piss poor. Already in a losing rut and its not even Friday lunchtime!!

I need a 2nd job lol


Well I had:
Over 8.5 FH points each team (ended 16-13)
And over 22.5 points each team

Ends 21-23

Edmund, the ginger goblin misses 3 kicks and sinks any hope of over 22.5

How you only score 5 points in the second half is ridiculous


Yes a missed conversion and penalty in the last 10 mins..... They lost the 2nd half 5 - 10, at home! Very poor.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #35 by Pablo
Stade Français +12.5 ha @1.80 2u again for an upset, like last three away matches. This time face one of the best teams but this line is high IMO after lineups info (SF going strong, even without Barre but with Gabrillagues back. Laloi at 15 not the best news but compo looks strong on paper). SR going strong as well (apart from already known internationals absences plus maybe Thomas injured but with Hastoy back).

Also little interest in Stade Toulousain +4.5 @1.813 1u. Nice compo on paper even without all internationals out, looks like Graou-Mallia will be their half pair so not disastrous Germain. Not Tuilagi for Usap big blow for them.
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1 month 2 weeks ago #36 by southpaw
FRANCE over 25.5 pts @ 5/6.

Under roof, expecting a big bounceback performance this weekend.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #37 by Pablo
Compulsory for me to take ATS Depoortere @3.5 and Barré @4 for just 0.5u each one. Shape is everything in rugby and both are peaking this season. Under the roof we may see some tries so nice odds for both of them.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #38 by Laraxwell
Message to self:
Have more respect for your money and stop throwing Pro2 'Bankers' into weekend multi's

League Leaders and 13 pt favourites,Vannes have just lost at home to Grenoble 10:17
Beziers, the 2nd placed team have had an early red card so are having their bellies tickled by Dax (50:20 with a few minutes to go)
The league may be interesting but there are too many odd results each weekend
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1 month 2 weeks ago #39 by Mossman

Pablo wrote: Stade Français +12.5 ha @1.80 2u again for an upset, like last three away matches. This time face one of the best teams but this line is high IMO after lineups info (SF going strong, even without Barre but with Gabrillagues back. Laloi at 15 not the best news but compo looks strong on paper). SR going strong as well (apart from already known internationals absences plus maybe Thomas injured but with Hastoy back).

Also little interest in Stade Toulousain +4.5 @1.813 1u. Nice compo on paper even without all internationals out, looks like Graou-Mallia will be their half pair so not disastrous Germain. Not Tuilagi for Usap big blow for them.


Hey Pablo, where are you getting your lineup info from? I notice you were talking about this before the lineups were officially out so I'm interested in where you source this. Cheers

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1 month 2 weeks ago #40 by Pablo

Mossman wrote:
Hey Pablo, where are you getting your lineup info from? I notice you were talking about this before the lineups were officially out so I'm interested in where you source this. Cheers


Hi Mossman, its a mix of info from training sesions (insider), rugbyrama and midol olympique news.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #41 by Pablo
Brive -14 and MDM +8 in to end a nice pro D2 weekend, with little stakes.

Agree with you Laraxwell, Béziers should have won this and Vannes as well. Rouen demolished Aurillac 38-13 when my predictions were a very tight match. Pro D2 is a very "odd" competition sometimes.
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1 month 2 weeks ago #42 by southpaw
These ridiculously early games too early for me to have a punt.

Main bet of super rugby weekend -

Blues win @ 8/11

Will drag my ass out of bed for that one.

Good luck all.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #43 by Quill
I heard Brent talk about the 9 point try and I remember that when Western Force was booted out of Super Rugby a few years ago, the billionaire Andrew Forrest stepped in to save the team and created that South-East Asian competition, forgot what it was called.
One of the innovations in that competition, which he said was going to be put forward to World Rugby for consideration, was the 9-point try, 9 points if it was initiated in your own half.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #44 by Mossman

Pablo wrote:

Mossman wrote:
Hey Pablo, where are you getting your lineup info from? I notice you were talking about this before the lineups were officially out so I'm interested in where you source this. Cheers


Hi Mossman, its a mix of info from training sesions (insider), rugbyrama and midol olympique news.


Nice.... might be an opportunity to partner up and swap info on Pro D2/Top 14.
I'm 37-23 (62%) in Pro D2 and I literally couldn't name a team in the league before this year (i.e. it's all just based on numbers).
Could boost that winning % a bit by predicting the lineups ahead of time and getting in front of the line moves.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #45 by Chiefie
Had Crusaders over 11.5 points in the FH.

Apparently the child missed a penalty in the final minute.

That’s 3/3 bad beats now due to missed kicks.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #46 by Brent Graham

Quill wrote: I heard Brent talk about the 9 point try and I remember that when Western Force was booted out of Super Rugby a few years ago, the billionaire Andrew Forrest stepped in to save the team and created that South-East Asian competition, forgot what it was called.
One of the innovations in that competition, which he said was going to be put forward to World Rugby for consideration, was the 9-point try, 9 points if it was initiated in your own half.


Spot on Quill that is exactly how the Varsity Cup 9 point try works

Phew Crusaders were awful and the newsletter bet arrives to claw some of Fridays losses back

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1 month 2 weeks ago #47 by Kirky

Laraxwell wrote:
League Leaders and 13 pt favourites,Vannes have just lost at home to Grenoble 10:17

The league may be interesting but there are too many odd results each weekend

Yup, first placed team capped at -13.5 looses to 11th placed Grenoble, how ?
The damage to me was hefty :pinch: :S :sick:

Eish, now to try to pick myself up for the rest of the weekend comeback.
Am I going to learn this lesson ?

Not a chance, had that single result been inverted ? I'd be a (virtual) millionaire now :woohoo: :woohoo:
Story of my life :) :beer
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1 month 2 weeks ago #48 by Chiefie
Every unders has hit in super rugby this weekend.

Complete opposite of magic round, this is waking up to Oscar Pistorious round. It’s a a shit show.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #49 by Jameson
I draw some comfort from the fact that I am not alone in hemorrhaging cash like nobodies business! I am so overdue on one of those elusive winning streaks .... Also, bad karma awaits later today shouting for the old enemy England! sob sob

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1 month 2 weeks ago #50 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote: I draw some comfort from the fact that I am not alone in hemorrhaging cash like nobodies business! I am so overdue on one of those elusive winning streaks .... Also, bad karma awaits later today shouting for the old enemy England! sob sob


And I had blues and canes both teams over 8.5 points in the FH

Ends 17-7

Think I’m 0/5

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