Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March

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1 month 2 weeks ago - 1 month 2 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham
It was a weekend of fine margins for me but sadly I was on the wrong side of them. 2 missed kicks cost me big in the Waratahs (Tahs win) and Blues (match overs) games and if only England and Ireland had delivered 2 more points

The newsletter best bet came home smoking (unders in Drua v Crusaders) and if you are not with us in the battle against the bookies Click Here to get my weekly e-mail

The Six Nations concludes this weekend and although others have mathematical chances Ireland should wrap it up

Here are the current handicaps

Wales -9.5 v Italy
Ireland -15.5 v Scotland
France -8.5* v England

*updated as originally estimated as cap was not out

Here are my Super Rugby handicap Projections for round 4

Crusaders +2.5 v Hurricanes
Rebels +8.5 v Reds
Force -3.5 v Moana
Highlanders -4.5 v Brumbies
Chiefs -26.5 v Drua
Waratahs +5.5 v Blues

I look forward to your thoughts - good punting

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Last edit: 1 month 2 weeks ago by Brent Graham. Reason: update

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1 month 2 weeks ago #2 by dholliday
Replied by dholliday on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Highlanders are underdogs at home against a Brumbies side who haven't exactly set the world alight. Have to take the Highlanders on the board at 2.50 and on the +3.5...

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1 month 2 weeks ago #3 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Yeah very surprised at that handicap - below how mine square up against opening lines at WSB - red is a difference of 5 or more and orange 3 -4 points

Crusaders +2.5 (+0.5) v Hurricanes
Rebels +8.5 (+9.5) v Reds
Force -3.5 (-3.5) v Moana
Highlanders -4.5 (+3.5) v Brumbies
Chiefs -26.5 (-18.5) v Drua
Waratahs +5.5 +9.5) v Blues

I expect all of those lines to move in my direction

I have taken a unit at 11/2

Brumbies +3.5 17/20
Chiefs -17.5 17/20
Waratahs +9.5 9/10

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1 month 2 weeks ago #4 by Pablo
Strongly agree with dholliday, I took Highlanders +3.5 @1.91 2u they should be favourites.

Chiefs -18.5 or over points catched my eye as well and, oh God, Crusaders @2 at home I cannot see them losing 4 in a row.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #5 by Quill

Pablo wrote: ....

oh God, Crusaders @2 at home I cannot see them losing 4 in a row.


... until they do.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #6 by TheAdmiral
Replied by TheAdmiral on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Echoing the previous comments, I also took highlanders win @ 2.5. Thought they’d be 7 point favourites.

Also took force -2, Moana not shown enough to nearly be at a pickem in an away game

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1 month 2 weeks ago #7 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Just some caution on Highlanders, it's been suggested by assistant coach will be ringing some changes to give some blokes a rest.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #8 by Kirky
Apologies for going off topic, but I feel I must share with my punting buddies.

The London Mayoral election on 2nd May, where Sadiq Kahn (incumbent) is favourite at 1.05
This election WILL be won by Howard Cox, from Reform UK.

Reform is a fairly new party headed by Richard Tice, and they'll probably (I'm 90% certain) win the British general election thus providing the new UK Government.

People are really fed-up with Kahn and his Muslim mates f#cking everything up in London. I see Cox as a shoo-in winner.

I've put a full 5 units on Howard Cox @ 67.00
Too good for me to pass up.
However, please exercise caution if you follow. :beer

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1 month 2 weeks ago #9 by Pablo
Italy +10 ha @1.80 2u

A couple of points better than other bookies so some value there in the italians, I think they can be up for this.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #10 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
A few line movements

Crusaders range from +1.5 to +3.5 with more bad injury news (Scott Barrett out)
Force -5.5 from -3.5
Highlanders +1.5 from +4.5

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1 month 1 week ago #11 by Jameson

Kirky wrote: Apologies for going off topic, but I feel I must share with my punting buddies.

The London Mayoral election on 2nd May, where Sadiq Kahn (incumbent) is favourite at 1.05
This election WILL be won by Howard Cox, from Reform UK.

Reform is a fairly new party headed by Richard Tice, and they'll probably (I'm 90% certain) win the British general election thus providing the new UK Government.

People are really fed-up with Kahn and his Muslim mates f#cking everything up in London. I see Cox as a shoo-in winner.

I've put a full 5 units on Howard Cox @ 67.00
Too good for me to pass up.
However, please exercise caution if you follow. :beer


Have you sobered up yet?? lol Cox is a populist right wing, climate change sceptic, loon - Kahn maybe a snivelling, dislikeable tw@t but Londoners generally vote on the left so he'll get back in easily.
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1 month 1 week ago #12 by Jameson
France v England U20 Friday evening. Strong French side as they have called up a number of Top14 players (No Top14 this weekend). Looks like the bookies have already taken this into account with the -7 ? Still good enough for me.

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1 month 1 week ago #13 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March

Jameson wrote: France v England U20 Friday evening. Strong French side as they have called up a number of Top14 players (No Top14 this weekend). Looks like the bookies have already taken this into account with the -7 ? Still good enough for me.


So this is possibly the game i've been looking forward too most all weekend despite all the other main action. I watched & punted France u20 last week and they could have scored 80. They are now stronger, at home and peaking. I think there will be points in this one, i'm close to punting the -7 but would preference France overs if line not too bad.

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1 month 1 week ago #14 by Pablo
I haven't seen France u20 lineup but looks scary. France u20 -8.5 @1.90 2u and may be for 3u.

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1 month 1 week ago #15 by Jameson

southpaw wrote:

Jameson wrote: France v England U20 Friday evening. Strong French side as they have called up a number of Top14 players (No Top14 this weekend). Looks like the bookies have already taken this into account with the -7 ? Still good enough for me.


So this is possibly the game i've been looking forward too most all weekend despite all the other main action. I watched & punted France u20 last week and they could have scored 80. They are now stronger, at home and peaking. I think there will be points in this one, i'm close to punting the -7 but would preference France overs if line not too bad.


The French U20 passing last time was sublime - so typically French!?
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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #16 by Kirky

Jameson wrote:

Kirky wrote:
However, please exercise caution if you follow. :beer

Have you sobered up yet?? lol Cox is a populist right wing, climate change sceptic, loon - Kahn maybe a snivelling, dislikeable tw@t but Londoners generally vote on the left so he'll get back in easily.

LOL, yes I'm sober now, and all I can say is to reiterate that Kahn is dead in the water, and Howard Cox of Reform UK will be the new Mayor.

At 66/1 I've put 5 units on him.
Watch this space..
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by Kirky.

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1 month 1 week ago #17 by dholliday
Replied by dholliday on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
France U20s vs England -6.5 might be my bet of the year.

Having Posolo Tuilagi and Hugo Reus in your side at that level should be illegal...
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1 month 1 week ago #18 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March

Jameson wrote:

southpaw wrote:

Jameson wrote: France v England U20 Friday evening. Strong French side as they have called up a number of Top14 players (No Top14 this weekend). Looks like the bookies have already taken this into account with the -7 ? Still good enough for me.


So this is possibly the game i've been looking forward too most all weekend despite all the other main action. I watched & punted France u20 last week and they could have scored 80. They are now stronger, at home and peaking. I think there will be points in this one, i'm close to punting the -7 but would preference France overs if line not too bad.


The French U20 passing last time was sublime - so typically French!?


Tolofua off the bench really caught the eye last week. Huge talent.

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1 month 1 week ago #19 by Naidoo
Friday Double
Force & France U20 both to win - 11/10

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1 month 1 week ago #20 by Pablo

dholliday wrote: France U20s vs England -6.5 might be my bet of the year.

Having Posolo Tuilagi and Hugo Reus in your side at that level should be illegal...


Don't forget the back row of Castro Ferreira and Gazzoti peaking in ST and UBB, Massa playing well in Grenoble, Attisogbe in SP, etc.

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1 month 1 week ago #21 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
France for me on both fronts this weekend -

FRA u20 -8 @ 10/11
Will be looking for tries or points over when lines out.

FRA snr side -
-6 @ 10/11
over 26.5 pts @ 8/11 (may take the over 27.5 @ 10/11 for a better price)

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1 month 1 week ago #22 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
The Oracle is back!

We live at 21h00 with focus on Super Rugby

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1 month 1 week ago #23 by shaft
Saders v Canes.

Rayasi last try scorer @ 20/1

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 month 1 week ago #24 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
The GFTG Super Rugby picks will be posted in this article

So far Canes 1-12 and over 57.5 Rebels v Reds

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1 month 1 week ago #25 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
joined on overs 57.5 in Melbourne

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1 month 1 week ago #26 by Chiefie
So it’s 8.35 in the UK, and on sky sports action, we’re seeing rebels v force women, where they are meant to be showing rebels and reds.

Can someone explain to me wtf I’m spending £27.99 a month to watch women’s super rugby for.

Why is this even being shown?! I’m probably the only person in the UK watching this.

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1 month 1 week ago #27 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Have had to go to my back up dodgy feed until sky wake up and put correct game on.

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1 month 1 week ago #28 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Wales v Italy Preview

Any team by 6 or less Tribet at 2/1

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1 month 1 week ago #29 by Chiefie

southpaw wrote: Have had to go to my back up dodgy feed until sky wake up and put correct game on.


I’ve messaged sky and now tv on Instagram, obviously no reply.

I hate sky.

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1 month 1 week ago #30 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Ireland v Scotland Preview

Taken 5/2 Ireland by 11-20 pts

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1 month 1 week ago #31 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote: So it’s 8.35 in the UK, and on sky sports action, we’re seeing rebels v force women, where they are meant to be showing rebels and reds.

Can someone explain to me wtf I’m spending £27.99 a month to watch women’s super rugby for.

Why is this even being shown?! I’m probably the only person in the UK watching this.


What pisses me off is that in the UK you would need to subscribe to what? 4 companies to watch all the rugby? I'm only interested in rugby (and maybe test cricket) so why cant I pay for what I'm interested in? So in effect I'm subsidising football WHICH I F@@KING HATE!!!

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1 month 1 week ago #32 by Jameson
Hey what's going on here then? I'm going to win a Friday bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-o

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1 month 1 week ago #33 by Laraxwell
Replied by Laraxwell on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March

Chiefie wrote: So it’s 8.35 in the UK, and on sky sports action, we’re seeing rebels v force women, where they are meant to be showing rebels and reds.

Can someone explain to me wtf I’m spending £27.99 a month to watch women’s super rugby for.

Why is this even being shown?! I’m probably the only person in the UK watching this.


Looks like Rebels women are pitching up v Reds

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1 month 1 week ago #34 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #35 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
over 58.5 @ 5/6 in Perth
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by southpaw. Reason: better price at Boyles

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1 month 1 week ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Pressing Force over 4.5 tries at 0.97/1

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1 month 1 week ago #37 by Chiefie

southpaw wrote: over 58.5 @ 5/6 in Perth


Every offload from Moana has gone forward.

My luck had to change at some point.

2 good. 1 shit. Had to be.

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1 month 1 week ago #38 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

southpaw wrote: over 58.5 @ 5/6 in Perth


Every offload from Moana has gone forward.

My luck had to change at some point.

2 good. 1 shit. Had to be.


Force butchering again.

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1 month 1 week ago #39 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

southpaw wrote: over 58.5 @ 5/6 in Perth


Every offload from Moana has gone forward.

My luck had to change at some point.

2 good. 1 shit. Had to be.


Force butchering again.

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1 month 1 week ago #40 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

southpaw wrote: over 58.5 @ 5/6 in Perth


Every offload from Moana has gone forward.

My luck had to change at some point.

2 good. 1 shit. Had to be.


Force butchering again.


Lealifiano couldnt kick his way out of a wet paper bag. Cannot tell you the last time I saw him make a kick for posts. Dead out in front, 35m back, hooks it, every time. F. Sakes.

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1 month 1 week ago #41 by Jameson
Well at least you got another score - I didnt bother with overs on this one but went with Force tries - cant decide if I or you is in the most shite .... :-)

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1 month 1 week ago #42 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote: Well at least you got another score - I didnt bother with overs on this one but went with Force tries - cant decide if I or you is in the most shite .... :-)


The force are the Welsh of the south, just horrible to watch. lol

Will race you to the bottom of the punting ladder.

Surely this second half can’t get worse.

But god, the force look clueless / aimless. Barely managing 1 out runners.

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1 month 1 week ago #43 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
Im pretty annoyed Nic White is out and the first I hear of it is at kick off. Wouldnt be on the Force knowing hes out.

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1 month 1 week ago #44 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote: Well at least you got another score - I didnt bother with overs on this one but went with Force tries - cant decide if I or you is in the most shite .... :-)


The force are the Welsh of the south, just horrible to watch. lol

Will race you to the bottom of the punting ladder.

Surely this second half can’t get worse.

But god, the force look clueless / aimless. Barely managing 1 out runners.


Hit me where it hurts wont you dude ... :-)

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1 month 1 week ago #45 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote: Well at least you got another score - I didnt bother with overs on this one but went with Force tries - cant decide if I or you is in the most shite .... :-)


The force are the Welsh of the south, just horrible to watch. lol

Will race you to the bottom of the punting ladder.

Surely this second half can’t get worse.

But god, the force look clueless / aimless. Barely managing 1 out runners.


Hit me where it hurts wont you dude ... :-)


Ben Donaldson is a dirty little bitch.

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1 month 1 week ago #46 by Jameson
1 easy win and 1 easy loss - pretty good for a Friday really! lol

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1 month 1 week ago #47 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March

southpaw wrote: France for me on both fronts this weekend -

FRA u20 -8 @ 10/11
Will be looking for tries or points over when lines out.

FRA snr side -
-6 @ 10/11
over 26.5 pts @ 8/11 (may take the over 27.5 @ 10/11 for a better price)


Added France u20 over 4.5 tries @ 8/10

Firmly involved in French rugby this weekend.

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1 month 1 week ago #48 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote: 1 easy win and 1 easy loss - pretty good for a Friday really! lol[/quote

Compared to last Friday, this is great.

2 easy wins and 1 easy loss.

Note to self, don’t watch or bet on the force. Life is too short to watch them.

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1 month 1 week ago #49 by Mondo86
France u20 over 33.5

Bread and water for the rest of the month if it loses -

All-in!

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #50 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Six Nations Rd 5, Super Rugby Rd 4 15-17 March
U20 Ireland v Scotland

I know the Scots are crap but this line is really low for U20 rugby

Scotland over 10.5 @ 9/10


Leaning towards the 55.5 match line in France but will see how the Scots go first
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by The Vann.

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