Super Rugby Rd 7, Champions Cup Last 16 + other rugby 1-7 April

Brent Graham wrote: It ended up being a quiet weekend for me with some profits on Super Rugby mostly given back on the URC

I didn't send the newsletter as really liked nothing strong and the best bet would probably have been Edinburgh plus so maybe just as well

Onto this week and we have the European Champions Cup last 16 - here are the current handicaps

Harlequins -8.5 v Glasgow
Bulls -17.5 v Lyon
Exeter +1.5 v Bath
Stormers +1.5 v La Rochelle
Bordeaux -11.5 v Saracens
Leinster -16.5 v Leicester
Saints -6.5 v Munster
Toulouse -12.5 v Racing

and here are my Super Rugby Rd 7 handicap projections - only 4 matches

Blues -19.5 v Force
Rebels -8.5 v Drua
Chiefs -23.5 v Moana Pasifika
Brumbies -10.5 v Waratahs

Have a great week

Rebels have opened as underdogs and I think the wrong team is favoured in this one.
Might still be possible to find a Rebels plus if shopping around.

Mossman wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: It ended up being a quiet weekend for me with some profits on Super Rugby mostly given back on the URC

I didn't send the newsletter as really liked nothing strong and the best bet would probably have been Edinburgh plus so maybe just as well

Onto this week and we have the European Champions Cup last 16 - here are the current handicaps

Harlequins -8.5 v Glasgow
Bulls -17.5 v Lyon
Exeter +1.5 v Bath
Stormers +1.5 v La Rochelle
Bordeaux -11.5 v Saracens
Leinster -16.5 v Leicester
Saints -6.5 v Munster
Toulouse -12.5 v Racing

and here are my Super Rugby Rd 7 handicap projections - only 4 matches

Blues -19.5 v Force
Rebels -8.5 v Drua
Chiefs -23.5 v Moana Pasifika
Brumbies -10.5 v Waratahs

Have a great week

Rebels have opened as underdogs and I think the wrong team is favoured in this one.
Might still be possible to find a Rebels plus if shopping around.

The odds dropped so fast, like an axe to the bottom of the lake!

Brent Graham wrote: Wow thanks Quill

...

Mossman brought the news.

I only showed my surprise at how fast the odds dropped.

Toulouse -13.5 ha @1.90 2u

Chat, Le Garrec and Gibert out for RM, Toulouse with all their people back and rotated this weekend to focus on the CC. For me this should be a 20 points win for the home team specially with the absences of RM starting half pair.

I like the Toulouse pick Pablo, was considering it even before the injury news

I’ve taken a good strike at bulls -15, lyon sending over a weakened team. I think bulls will tear them apart in Loftus. Id imagine the cap will fly out in the next few hours

Provence -16.5 ha @1.90 2u

Montauban in disarray, last week defeat at home against Dax was really painful. A friend from Montauban told me some players went yesterday to talk with the president because they don't trust the coaching staff and dont even want to play. Added that they play at home next two weeks and they will focus on this matches.
For me even if they go with the usual starters they can concede above 40 points easily.

TheAdmiral wrote: I like the Toulouse pick Pablo, was considering it even before the injury news

I’ve taken a good strike at bulls -15, lyon sending over a weakened team. I think bulls will tear them apart in Loftus. Id imagine the cap will fly out in the next few hours

I didnt find anything on Lou group but saw line moved from -14.5 to -17.5. Makes sense as they are in the fight to avoid relegation in Top14.

Took La Rochelle a few months ago, -2 @ 10/11, thought would move but stayed as is all that time.

I think points/tries overs in Bulls game will be the way to go. Don't like a big cap in a game like this, especially after Leinster rolled them with ease in 2nd half.

Dax @1.72 2u

Dax going strong after last week rotation (and win in Montauban) and peaking (even above Brive in the standings). Brive played well in MDM but they have some important absences for tomorrow match (Carbonneau and Olding the most important by far but also Brennan, Van Eerten, Abdalazde and Marais). For me the only absences of Carbo and Olding would be more than enough to bet against them as they are the top performers this season.

Dax only two home defeats were against Vannes and Provence, the top2 away teams in the competition (and also 1st and 3rd in the standings)

Going for a little upset here Valence dnb + Angouleme dnb @3.65 just for 0.5u

I have them as favourites by small margins so at even odds there´s value

Pablo wrote: Dax @1.72 2u

Dax going strong after last week rotation (and win in Montauban) and peaking (even above Brive in the standings). Brive played well in MDM but they have some important absences for tomorrow match (Carbonneau and Olding the most important by far but also Brennan, Van Eerten, Abdalazde and Marais). For me the only absences of Carbo and Olding would be more than enough to bet against them as they are the top performers this season.

Dax only two home defeats were against Vannes and Provence, the top2 away teams in the competition (and also 1st and 3rd in the standings)

Thanks for sharing and for the confidence Pablo.

@Pablo here are my numbers on Pro D2 this week (I was on Dax -2.5).
The 1st and 4th columns are the main ones.

I like Colomiers and I'm on the other side of your bet and like Mont de Marsan.
I'm considering Rouen and Angoulme.
I looked at Aurillac but I don't like the team they've picked.

Thoughts?

Oops- sorry, don't want to tempt fate. So deleted
Just saying thanx to Pablo

Brent Graham wrote: Well played Pablo and the forumites that joined him!

If you get the newsletter you already know this one - going against the panel on this one

Stormers v La Rochelle Betting Preview

Relieved to see I’m not alone in La Rochelle camp. Was more confident a couple months ago than now as LR domestic form been a bit hit and miss, but expecting them to bring best this weekend and grab the win.
La Rochelle win at 8/10

The force.

What are they good for?

Ohhh ahhh.

Absolutely nothing.

This thing when there is no score in 20 mins of play after a period where points have flowed easily? WTF is going on? I took over 55.5 in live play and its happening again - its killing me!

Mossman wrote:
I like Colomiers and I'm on the other side of your bet and like Mont de Marsan.
I'm considering Rouen and Angoulme.
I looked at Aurillac but I don't like the team they've picked.

Thoughts?

Hmm for me the best one is Provence -16.5 or their overs because Montauban are in disarray and sent a mixed team, specially weak up front.

Other one is Angouleme, like you, and BOP -13.5 (but I didnt do this one because I dont trust them enough) because Aurillac send a mixed compo and they're bad travelers. I think Valence-Mdm will be tight but yeah, mdm is going for the win so may take It. Combo is only 0.5u for fun.

Rouen should win and I think they will but here odds are @1.50 so no value, Béziers going strong but with some key absences. 49.5 in that match looks very high to me.

Nothing to say about Colomiers, both teams going strong and for me the -9.5 is well set.

Like lamb to the slaughter we go. Time to pick myself up after last weekend.
Rebels v Drua
Drua over 3.5 tries @8/10 EDIT(Sorry down to 72/100 after posting )
Rebels over 4.5 tries 2.12/1 both with sunbet

added over 54.5 inplay

Roger Rabbit wrote: added over 54.5 inplay

Over 55.5 for me (again) - and their kicking penalties HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

Jameson wrote:

Roger Rabbit wrote: added over 54.5 inplay

Over 55.5 for me (again) - and their kicking penalties HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

the flood gates will open and we will both be winners

Roger Rabbit wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Roger Rabbit wrote: added over 54.5 inplay

Over 55.5 for me (again) - and their kicking penalties HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

the flood gates will open and we will both be winners

It was happening again there? 2 red cards and the rebels score 7 points in the last 20??

Jeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzeeeeee

Stopped the rot anyway - which I am extremely grateful for!

Pablo wrote:

Mossman wrote:
I like Colomiers and I'm on the other side of your bet and like Mont de Marsan.
I'm considering Rouen and Angoulme.
I looked at Aurillac but I don't like the team they've picked.

Thoughts?

Hmm for me the best one is Provence -16.5 or their overs because Montauban are in disarray and sent a mixed team, specially weak up front.

Other one is Angouleme, like you, and BOP -13.5 (but I didnt do this one because I dont trust them enough) because Aurillac send a mixed compo and they're bad travelers. I think Valence-Mdm will be tight but yeah, mdm is going for the win so may take It. Combo is only 0.5u for fun.

Rouen should win and I think they will but here odds are @1.50 so no value, Béziers going strong but with some key absences. 49.5 in that match looks very high to me.

Nothing to say about Colomiers, both teams going strong and for me the -9.5 is well set.

Uf uf uf Provence -16.5 arrives but what an awful performance against a depleted side. Not well read.

Combo arrived at @1.81 because Angouleme draws and void that part, only Valence delivered.

Can’t watch full game so just some tryscorer interests -

Narawa 2+ tries @ 7/2
1st Pasifika try Taumoefalou@ 7/1

I'm on over 60.5 in live play but if Pasifika cant score ......

southpaw wrote: Can’t watch full game so just some tryscorer interests -

Narawa 2+ tries @ 7/2
1st Pasifika try Taumoefalou@ 7/1

Nice call on Narawa South!

Cheers naidoo.

Similar in next -

Arendse 2+ tries @ 10/3

Late post apologies, in Europe Livescore Bet has Bulls points at 36.5. (It's 43.5 on B365)

Bulls over 36.5 @ 1.83

Surely Willie le Poo can bugger off and retire now.

He can open a coffee shop in Pretoria and kick every order to the customers tables from the kitchen.

Had enough of him. It’s been decades of butchering tries

Chiefie wrote: Surely Willie le Poo can bugger off and retire now.

He can open a coffee shop in Pretoria and kick every order to the customers tables from the kitchen.

Had enough of him. It’s been decades of butchering tries

And Canan Moodie can join him. Just kicking the leather off this ball in perfect conditions.

Conditions in Bridgend for the Ospreys game will be appalling - 50MPH winds gusting to over 70. Storm Kathleen.

I hate an unders bet but I've done it - under 42.5. I pray to the lord!

EDIT: Pre match build up indicated that the weather there is OK lol

looks like the lads did well yday, i was busy with work so kept the powder dry. Really fancy NZ in the 7's final , -2.5 around 8/10 big strike.

Roger Rabbit wrote: looks like the lads did well yday, i was busy with work so kept the powder dry. Really fancy NZ in the 7's final , -2.5 around 8/10 big strike.

Fancy NZ too

If in Europe Spreadex has NZ ML @ 1.95, so on board that. (They're much as 4 point favs everywhere else)

Thanks for the confidence on NZ in the 7s lads, good start to the betting day.

Just got well and truly done over by the dreaded 'no score for 20 mins' in the Northampton game. 28 points scored in the 1st half and 10 in the 2nd .....

Need to claw back on the sharks!

Have a double ending with Toulouse -12

Separately have taken Toulouse over 33.5 points @ 1.80

Toulouse delivers to end a very nice french weekend

For next week Northampton should be favourite at home, now dnb at @2 is for 2u