In this Blog we will look at the URC fixtures taking place on Friday 26 and Saturday 27 December with a focus on all things betting related.
Weather, Teams, Match Officials and my Bet
Posted 26 Dec 07h58
Due to my trip and likely battle to find signal I have added my leans to each match below
Friday 26 December 2025
Cardiff Rugby v Dragons RFC
Kick-off: 17:00
Venue: Cardiff Arms Park
Team Line-ups
Cardiff: 15 Cam Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Harri Millard, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Mason Grady, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Aled Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Dan Thomas, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Rory Thornton, 4 Josh McNally, 3 Javan Sebastian, 2 Liam Belcher (captain), 1 Rhys Barratt.
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 George Nott, 20 Alun Lawrence, 21 James Botham, 22 Johan Mulder, 23 Jacob Beetham
Dragons: 15 Angus O’Brien (co-captain), 14 Huw Anderson, 13 Fine Inisi, 12 Aneurin Owen, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Tinus de Beer, 9 Che Hope, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Thomas Young, 6 Ryan Woodman, 5 Ben Carter (co-captain), 4 Levi Douglas, 3 Robert Hunt, 2 George Roberts, 1 Rodrigo Martinez.
Replacements: 16 Sam Scarfe, 17 Wyn Jones, 18 Cebo Dlamini, 19 Matthew Screech, 20 Harri Keddie, 21 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 22 Rhodri Williams, 23 David Richards.
Referee: Adam Jones (Wales)
Assistant referees: Ben Connor (Wales), Amber Stamp-Dunstan (Wales)
TMO: Aled Griffiths (Wales)
Weather
Cold at 3 degrees but clear, humidity early 80's - click here to bet
Bet Lean
I am expecting Cardiff to come good and am leaning -13.5
Scarlets v Ospreys
Kick-off: 19:30
Venue: Parc y Scarlets
Team Line-ups
Scarlets: 15 Ellis Mee, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Eddie James, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Joe Roberts, 10 Joe Hawkins, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Fletcher Anderson, 7 Taine Plumtree, 6 Max Douglas, 5 Jake Ball, 4 Sam Lousi, 3 Archer Holz, 2 Ryan Elias (captain), 1 Alec Hepburn.
Replacements: 16 Marnus van der Merwe, 17 Josh Morse, 18 Henry Thomas, 19 Tristan Davies, 20 Jarrod Taylor, 21 Archie Hughes, 22 Elis Price, 23 Macs Page.
Ospreys: 15 Jack Walsh, 14 Ryan Conbeer, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Keiran Williams, 11 Keelan Giles, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 James Ratti, 5 Ryan Smith, 4 Huw Sutton, 3 Rhys Henry, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Steffan Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Sam Parry, 17 Garyn Phillips, 18 Tom Botha, 19 Rhys Davies, 20 Morgan Morris, 21 Luke Davies, 22 Phil Cokanasiga, 23 Iestyn Hopkins.
Referee: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
Assistant referees: Craig Evans (Wales); Carwyn Sion (Wales)
TMO: Keith David (Wales)
Weather
Cold at 3 degrees, clear and humidity mid 80's - click here for updates
Bet: 3 units under 46.5 at 0.96/1 at Betxchange
A small interest in the unders in what will be freezing conditions.
Saturday 27 December 2025
Zebre Parma v Benetton Treviso
Kick-off: 16:30
Venue: Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi
Team Line-ups
Zebre Parma: 15 Giovanni Montemauri, 14 Malik Faissal, 13 Marco Zanon, 12 Damiano Mazza, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Giacomo Da Re, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Giovanni Licata (captain), 7 Samuele Locatelli, 6 Giacomo Ferrari, 5 Leonard Krumov, 4 Alessandro Ortombina, 3 Juan Manuel Pitinari, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Muhamed Hasa.
Replacements: 16 Giampietro Ribaldi, 17 Paolo Buonfiglio, 18 Matteo Nocera, 19 David Odiase, 20 Davide Ruggeri, 21 Thomas Dominguez, 22 Giulio Bertaccini, 23 Bautista Stavile.
Benetton: 15 Matt Gallagher, 14 Paolo Odogwu, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Ignacio Mendy, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Andy Uren, 8 Michele Lamaro (captain), 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Alessandro Izekor, 5 Eli Snyman, 4 Riccardo Favretto, 3 Giosuè Zilocchi, 2 Siua Maile, 1 Mirco Spagnolo.
Replacements: 16 Nicholas Gasperini, 17 Destiny Aminu, 18 Tiziano Pasquali, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 So’otala Fa’aso’o, 21 Federico Ruzza, 22 Louis Werchon, 23 Rhyno Smith.
Referee: Clara Munarini (Italy)
Assistant referees: Federico Vedovelli (Italy); Lorenzo Pedezzi (Italy)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (Italy)
Weather
Cold at 6 degrees but clear and humidity early 70's - click here for updates
Bet: 2 units Zebre win at 2.60 at WSB
Zebre have impressed me at home this season and I am not surprised to see they have been backed on the handicap.
Edinburgh Rugby v Glasgow Warriors
Kick-off: 17:00
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield
Team Line-ups
Edinburgh: 15 Wes Goosen, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Matt Currie, 12 James Lang, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Cammy Scott, 9 Ben Vellacott, 8 Magnus Bradbury (captain), 7 Dylan Richardson, 6 Liam McConnell, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Glen Young, 3 Paul Hill, 2 Harri Morris, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Jerry Blyth-Lafferty, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Ollie Blyth-Lafferty, 19 Callum Hunter-Hill, 20 Freddy Douglas, 21 Charlie Shiel, 22 Ross Thompson, 23 Jack Brown.
Glasgow Warriors: 15 Ollie Smith, 14 Kyle Steyn (captain), 13 Stafford McDowall, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Adam Hastings,9 George Horne, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Angus Fraser, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Alex Samuel, 4 Alex Craig, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 Johnny Matthews, 1 Patrick Schickerling.
Replacements: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Zander Fagerson, 19 Scott Cummings, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 Rory Darge, 22 Ben Afshar, 23 Dan Lancaster.
Referee: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Rob McDowell (Scotland); Jonny Mackenzie (Scotland)
TMO: David Sutherland (Scotland)
Weather
Cold at 5 degrees, overcast but should be dry, humidity in late 70's - click here for updates
Bet Lean
I think this will be a tight one and under 45.5 points is where I am leaning.
Connacht Rugby v Ulster Rugby
Kick-off: 19:30
Venue: Dexcom Stadium
Team Line-ups
Connacht: 15 Sam Gilbert, 14 Daniel Ryan, 13 Cathal Forde, 12 Bundee Ali, 11 Finn Treacy, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Ben Murphy, 8 Sean Jansen, 7 Cian Prendergast (captain), 6 Josh Murphy, 5 David O’Connor, 4 Joe Joyce, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Denis Buckley.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 17 Jordan Duggan, 18 Fiachna Barrett, 19 Darragh Murray, 20 Sean O’Brien, 21 Matthew Devine, 22 Josh Ioane, 23 Hugh Gavin.
Ulster: 15 Jacob Stockdale, 14 Werner Kok, 13 James Hume, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Zac Ward, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Conor McKee, 8 Juarno Augustus, 7 Nick Timoney (captain), 6 David McCann, 5 Cormac Izuchukwu, 4 Harry Sheridan, 3 Scott Wilson, 2 Tom Stewart, 1 Sam Crean.
Replacements: 16 John Andrew, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Tom O’Toole, 19 Joe Hopes, 20 Bryn Ward, 21 Nathan Doak, 22 Jake Flannery, 23 Jude Postlethwaite.
Referee: Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Robbie Jenkinson (Ireland); Max Weston (Ireland)
TMO: Leo Colgan (Ireland)
Weather
Cold at 5 degrees but clear, humidity late 80's - click here for updates
BET: 3 units Ulster -2.5 at 0.94/1 at Betxchange
Ulster really impressed me against Leinster and while Connacht are a different animal at home I am on the visitor here. The points line of 48.5 looks right
Munster Rugby v Leinster Rugby
Kick-off: 21:45
Venue: Thomond Park
Team Line-ups
Munster: 15 Shane Daly, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Thaakir Abrahams, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 Jack O’Donoghue, 6 Tadhg Beirne (captain), 5 Tom Ahern, 4 Edwin Edogbo, 3 Michael Ala’alatoa, 2 Lee Barron, 1 Michael Milne.
Replacements: 16 Diarmuid Barron, 17 Jeremy Loughman, 18 John Ryan, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Fineen Wycherley, 21 Paddy Patterson, 22 Dan Kelly, 23 John Hodnett.
Leinster: 15 Ciarán Frawley, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Harry Byrne, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (captain), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Max Deegan, 5 James Ryan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 John McKee, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Diarmuid Mangan, 20 Scott Penny, 21 Fintan Gunne, 22 Charlie Tector, 23 Andrew Osborne.
Referee: Peter Martin (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Keane Davison (Ireland); Andrew Fogarty (Ireland)
TMO: Mark Patton (Ireland)
Weather
Cold at 4 degrees but mostly clear, humidity late 80's - click here for updates
Bet: Leinster by 1-12 points inclusive at around 14/10
I think this will be a tight one with Leinster finding a way to win. Not a lot of books priced up yet and there will hopefully be 14 or 15/10 on offer
Handicap Update and Round 8 Strategy
Posted 26 Dec 07h20
I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas, I certainly did.
I am heading off for a few days in the bush and may not have signal so will post a few plays before I leave but with the SA teams not playing this will be a quiet week for me.
I will also get the teams, match officials and weather up before I go.
In the interim here are the latest handicaps and points lines with recent moves highlighted
Cardiff -13.5 from -11.5 v Dragons, Points 50.5
Scarlets -5.5 v Ospreys, Points 46.5
Zebre +3.5 from +5.5 v Benetton Treviso, Points 45.5
Edinburgh +6.5 from +5.5 v Glasgow Warriors, Points 45.5
Connacht -2.5 from -0.5 v Ulster, Points 48.5
Munster +4.5 from +5.5 v Leinster, Points 43.5
Early Handicaps
Posted 23 Dec 07h46
I never saw the opening lines but current lines compared to mine. The SA derbies appear to be taking place on March 14.
Cardiff -9.5 (-11.5) v Dragons
Scarlets -6.5 (-5.5) v Ospreys
Zebre Parma -2.5 (+5.5) v Benetton Treviso
Edinburgh +2.5 (+5.5) v Glasgow Warriors
Connacht +4.5 (-0.5) v Ulster
Munster +4.5 (+5.5) v Leinster
Big differences in the Zebre (7 points) and Connacht (5 points) games with a 3 point difference in the Edinburgh game.
URC Round 7 Handicap Projections
Posted 22 Dec 09h47 - updated 13h57 with SA derbies which never appeared on fixture list I was using
Here are my handicap projections for Round 8 and I will compare these with the early bookmaker lines later today
- Cardiff -9.5 v Dragons
- Scarlets -6.5 v Ospreys
- Lions -0.5 v Sharks
- Zebre Parma -2.5 v Benetton
- Edinburgh +2.5 v Glasgow Warriors
- Connacht +4.5 v Ulster
- Munster +4.5 v Leinster
- Bulls -3.5 v Stormers
URC Round 7 – Betting Review
Posted 22 Dec 09h35
On the face of it Round 7 was a decent one for me but the overs in the Stormers game cost me a number of doubles and trebles.
✅ Leinster v Ulster – Under 49.5 (4 units)
Result: Leinster 24–20 Ulster (44 points)
A fairly comfortable winner. This match developed into exactly the arm wrestle anticipated, and I thought Ulster were a bit unlucky to lose although that Leinster bench was always going to be a factor.
❌ Cardiff v Scarlets – Cardiff win & Under 46.5 (2 units)
Result: Cardiff 17–21 Scarlets (38 points)
The total landed easily, but the result went against us. Cardiff butchered countless chances and that cross kick when on attack after the hooter killed me – brain dead stuff.
❌ Stormers v Lions – Under 52.5 (3 units)
Result: Stormers 34–27 Lions (61 points)
This one didn’t arrive. Despite pitch concerns and wind, defence was optional
✅ Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh – Under 46.5 (3 units)
Result: Glasgow 24–12 Edinburgh (36 points)
A clean winner. Another classic low-scoring derby played at high intensity. Territorial, physical and attritional, exactly as forecast.
✅ Sharks v Bulls – Under 47.5 (3 units)
Result: Sharks 21–12 Bulls (33 points)
Comfortable unders winner. This turned into the tight, physical contest expected, with neither side showing much attacking ambition. A good read in a typically humid Durban.
✅ Ospreys v Munster – Under 47.5 (4 units)
Result: Ospreys 10–26 Munster (36 points)
My biggest play of the round and it landed convincingly in the end as was under pressure in the 3rd quarter.
❌ Dragons v Connacht – Under 45.5 (3 units)
Result: Dragons 48–28 Connacht (76 points)
The complete outlier and the bet that did the damage. Sadly I had a number of bets finishing on this one.
I will be back with my Round 8 handicap projections