Super Rugby Australia continues this weekend and we take a look at both matches and also the latest Outright Betting.
Outright Betting update, previous week’s prices in brackets – Click Here to bet
Brumbies 7/10 (11/10)
Rebels 4/1 (3/1)
Reds 4/1 (9/2)
Waratahs 10/1 (15/2)
Western Force 22/1 (10/1)
The Brumbies have shortened considerably after their opening victory and are now 7/10 from last week’s quote of 11/10 to win the tournament. That price may be as much due to the fact that none of the other teams stood out and the Reds and the Rebels are joint second favourites at 4/1.
REBELS v REDS – Click Here to bet
This match is taking place in New South Wales on neutral territory due to travel restrictions in Melbourne around the COVID-19 virus.
The Rebels were beaten by 8 points by the Brumbies last week having at one stage looked like they might pull off a remarkable come from behind victory. The home team were that bit too strong in the end though and the Rebels will certainly have to improve if they are to win this Tournament.
The Reds beat the Waratahs in a high scoring game in Brisbane last week and it took some pin point kicking by James O’Connor to get them home.
The Rebels have won their last 2 matches against the Reds, by 6 points at home last year and by 19 points on the road also in 2019. Australian derbies are often dour affairs, but there has been quite a history of high scoring matches between these sides with 7 of the last 8 games reaching 50 points or more.
BETTING
Rebels 21/20
Draw 25/1
Reds 9/10
Handicap: Rebels (+0.5) at 9/10, Reds (-0.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Winning margin, Reds under 12.5 points at 19/10
I am in agreement with the betting here and make the Reds slight favourites and think the 1-12 Winning Margin offers the best value.
WARATAHS v WESTERN FORCE – click here to bet
The Waratahs were beaten by 6 points on the road in Brisbane last week, but there was certainly a point in the second half where they looked like they were going to come back to win the game. They now play their first home match of the season. The Waratahs last 4 matches against Australian opposition has seen 2 victories and 2 defeats.
The Force have been in the wilderness for a couple of years and they certainly pose something of a conundrum for punters as many of their players are unknown.
For what it is worth these sides have met 8 times where the Waratahs have hosted with the Waratahs winning 4, the Force 3 and 1 drawn match. Total points average just 30.
BETTING
Waratahs 2/9
Draw 35/1
Western Force 15/4
Handicap: Waratahs (-11.5) at 9/10, Western Force (+11.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Force (+11.5) at 9/10
I felt the Force were unlucky to be cut from Super Rugby and the game just seemed to be picking up in Perth at the time. The Waratahs didn’t impress me last week and unless the Force are really awful I think they could beat the handicap here.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
