We take a look at the two Super Rugby Australian matches taking place this weekend and also get an update on the Outright Betting markets.
Outright Betting update, previous week’s prices in brackets – Click here to bet
Brumbies 6/10 (7/10)
Reds 9/2 (4/1)
Rebels 11/2 (4/1)
Waratahs 9/1 (10/1)
Western Force 16/1 (22/1)
The Brumbies didn’t play last week, but they shortened from 7/10 to 6/10 and that is likely as a result of none of the other teams looking impressive. The Reds and the Rebels have drifted slightly, the Waratahs are fairly stable at 9/1 and the Western Force have shortened slightly from 22/1 to 16/1.
REDS v WESTERN FORCE – Click here to bet
The bookies were battling to separate the Reds and the Rebels last week and after 80 minutes of rugby and Super Time the sides finished level to share the spoils. The Reds opening match was at home against the Waratahs which they won by 6 points. The Reds recent home record against Australian opposition is not that great with a 50% strike rate in their last 6 games.
The Force made their Tournament debut last week away at the Waratahs and they started well leading 14-0 in what was a scrappy encounter. They couldn’t add to their score though and eventually went down 23-14.
You have to go back to 2017 to the last time these sides met in Brisbane, but the Force did win on that occasion, in fact they have won on their last 2 visits to Brisbane.
BETTING
Reds 1/7
Draw 35/1
Western Force 11/2
Handicap: Reds (-15.5) at 9/10, Western Force (+15.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Alternative Winning Margin, Reds by 11-20 points inclusive at 26/10
This handicap looks very well set in the mid-teens and virtually all of the Australian games have ended up finishing close to the handicap and I am going to be betting on this happening again.
WARATAHS v BRUMBIES – Click here to bet
The Waratahs got off the mark against the Force last week, but they had to dig deep after going 14-0 down early. In Week 1 they lost 26-32 to the Reds in Brisbane and they certainly look a far cry from the Super Rugby winning Waratahs side of a few years ago. If there is one Australian side the Waratahs don’t go well against at home is the Brumbies and they have lost 4 on the trot in Sydney.
The Brumbies returned from a week off having opened their campaign with an 8 point home victory over the Rebels. Based on the betting markets there will be plenty supporting them this week as they have been backed in from (-7.5) to (-10.5).
BETTING
Waratahs 33/10
Draw 30/1
Brumbies 1/4
Handicap: Waratahs (+10.5) at 9/10, Brumbies (-10.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Waratahs (+10.5) at 9/10
Certainly not a confident play, but I wasn’t that impressed by the Brumbies in their opener and think here at home the Waratahs can keep things respectable.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
