I do a fair amount of research before I bet and while this does not guarantee success in the short term, it certainly is the ticket to beating the bookmakers over time. Sometimes though I rely on my gut.
I was in a good mood heading into this past weekend having won nicely the week before, but there were no fireworks for me in the early stages and I was a bit down heading into the Reds v Chiefs clash.
In my preview for Goodforthegame I had highlighted the Reds (+6.5) as a good bet, but also backed them to win the game at 9/4. I couldn’t really justify this selection based on the Reds recent performances against New Zealand sides and the Chiefs had impressed in their victory over the Brumbies the previous week but for some reason my gut just told me the Reds were going to come good.
I backed them outright and had a bigger bet that they would score 3 tries or more and after both teams made a slow start, the Reds sprang into action and scored 2 quick tries leaving me on the verge of collecting my tries bet. At that point the Chiefs got a red card which in this tournament means 20 minutes without 14 men and the Reds took advantage running in a couple more tries to deliver one of my bets before the break.
I had mentally banked the outright Reds win bet although was given some nervous moments in the closing stages as they allowed the Chiefs in for a couple of late tries and eventually held on to win by 6 points. My gut had delivered.
With no local rugby on last weekend I decided to shut up shop and bank a decent profit on the weekend.
Looking ahead to this weekend I could be getting involved quite heavily in Friday’s action. One of our Forum posters, Southpaw, pointed out that the Crusaders had to not only chase the bonus point, but also points difference in this competition where winning all 5 games may not be enough to get you into the final.
He fancies them to step on the gas and deliver a ruthless performance in so doing winning this one by more than the current 33.5 point handicap. My gut is telling me to follow Southpaw on this one.
This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was published on the 3 June 2021.