I have somehow found a way to make a profit these last two weekends of Super Rugby. I say “somehow” because if you have been reading my betting previews on Goodforthegame you would be forgiven for thinking I am talking absolute rubbish.
When previewing a game from a betting angle there is essentially a need to come up with a bet at the end and in many cases I have no firm opinion on the handicap. In these cases I usually select a smaller play at slightly longer odds and unfortunately these have gone missing in weeks 2 and 3 of Super Rugby.
A hectic weekend of school sport has also ensured that I have only been able to watch selected games and this past weekend for example I only got heavily involved in 3 games. I was on the Brumbies -4.5 against the Highlanders only for them to lose the match and this bet after the hooter but I was bigger on over 50.5 points in the Lions v Stormers and was also well invested in the Jaguares -11.5 at home to the Reds.
The end result being I finished in front and it got me thinking back a few years to when the kids were still toddlers and I would sometimes sit on the couch betting on 5 consecutive matches.
By the 5th match I was usually grumpy and quite often chasing my losses and more often than not this would end in tears. These days I can sit through a rugby game without a bet (ok I usually channel hop during the scrums) but there is no doubt that being selective about my betting plays has been beneficial.
Looking ahead to this weekend I am planning a similar strategy and one game I do not want to miss is the Bulls v Blues at Loftus. The Blues have been priced as narrow favourites at 8/10 with the Bulls 23/20 and the draw 25/1 at World Sports Betting.
I will have a nibble at the Blues/Bulls HT/FT market at 8/1 meaning the Blues must lead at the break but the Bulls must come back and win. We saw the impact of altitude on the Stormers last week and I am hoping the Blues run out of steam late on.
I also fancy total points overs at anything under 54.5.
Twitter: @BrentGraham.
This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was published on the 20 February 2020.
Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and sends a free weekly e-mail list just CLICK HERE to register