It's Week 18 of the URC and after this we move onto the quarter-finals. Brent Graham reflects briefly on week 17, takes a look at the latest outright betting and log, shares his handicap projections, the weather forecast and towards the end of the week a bet in each match with the fixtures featuring South African teams getting their own previews.
LEINSTER vs GLASGOW WARRIORS
Posted 17 May 10h25
I may revisit this game this evening when points lines are out (a very late play will be posted in the forum) but for now a half time play.
Leinster have secured top spot and Glasgow will likely have to win to finish 3rd failing which they will finish 4th.
The handicap is big at 25.5 and on paper Glasgow have a decent team with some returning players but Leinster are stacked and should win comfortably.
I like Leinster to make a strong start and to lead by 11 or more at the break.
BET: 3 units Leinster Half Time Handicap -10.5 at 0.84/1 at Betxchange
GOOD MORNING EVERYONE BUT THE BOOKIES
Posted 17 May 10h18
A nice start last night with all 3 main bets landing and only the Benetton outright missing out.
Plans have had to change this morning as bookies are clearly scared to bring out the points lines.
Remember bets on the SA games have their own previews on the home page
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ZEBRE PARMA vs CONNACHT
Posted 16 May 22h41
This is a dead rubber and is probably the game I am least likely to watch.
Zebre are +2.5 having opened +3.5 and although I initially thought Connacht would start -8.5 I have revised my thinking on this one.
In a dead rubber I am leaning towards the home team having that bit more to play for and to get the win.
BET: 2 units Zebre win at 14/10 at Betxchange
MUNSTER vs BENETTON
Posted 16 May 00h45
I priced this game Munster -6.5 so was surprised when the 1st line I saw was -10.5. It went as high as -13.5 in places and appears to have settled at the -11.5 level.
Munster love their playoff rugby and that is basically what this is with the winner going through and the loser going home.
Benetton though are a much improved team and I am going to stik with my initial read that they can stay within a score.
I am also going to have a small interest they upset Munster with a ML bet.
Points is 51.5 and conditions look good.
BET: 4 units Benetton +11.5 at 0.94/1 at Betxchange
BET: 1 units Benetton win at 9/2 at WSB
EDINBURGH vs ULSTER
Posted 16 May 00h29
Edinburgh are -11.5 at the time of writing and assuming there is not an upset in Stormers v Cardiff they can qualify with a win here.
Ulster have had a poor season and are out of contention for the playoffs.
The points line is 53.5 but it is Edinburgh points that catches the eye. Given they have more than pride to play for I am expecting Edinburgh to be the more focused team and in what looks like good conditions I expect them to score 33 points at least.
BET:4 units Edinburgh over 32.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
DHL STORMERS vs CARDIFF
Posted 16 May 00h17
This match has its own preview - click here - fancy Cardiff to beat the handicap
WEATHER LINKS AND CURRENT FORECAST
Below links to the weekends weather
FRIDAY, 16 MAY 2025
DHL Stormers vs Cardiff Rugby
Kickoff: 19:00 (SA time)
Venue: DHL Stadium, Cape Town
• Weather Forecast: Mild around 20 degrees, cloud but no rain forecast
• Humidity: 65-70%
• Forecast sourced at 14h01 on 15 May from timeanddate
Edinburgh Rugby vs Ulster Rugby
Kickoff: 20:35 (SA time)
Venue: Hive Stadium, Edinburgh
• Weather Forecast: Clear and Mild, mid teen’s
• Humidity: 55-60%
• Forecast sourced at 14h04 on 15 May from timeanddate
Munster Rugby vs Benetton Rugby
Kickoff: 21:00 (SA time)
Venue: Virgin Media Park, Cork
• Weather Forecast: Clear and Mild, mid teen’s
• Humidity: 55/60%
• Forecast sourced at 14h06 on 15 May fromtimeanddate
Saturday, 17 May 2025
Vodacom Bulls vs Dragons RFC
Kickoff: 15:00 (SA time)
Venue: Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria
• Weather Forecast: Mild Clear with temps in early 20’s
• Humidity: 30-40%
• Forecast sourced at 15h12 on 15 May from timeanddate
Emirates Lions vs Ospreys
Kickoff: 17:15 (SA time)
Venue: Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg
• Weather Forecast: Clear with temp in high teens
• Humidity: 40-45%
• Forecast sourced at 15h14 on 15 May from timeanddate
Zebre Parma vs Connacht Rugby
Kickoff: 18:00 (SA time)
Venue: Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi, Parma
• Weather Forecast: Mild and clear with temp around 20 degrees
• Humidity: 45-50%
• Forecast sourced at 15h16 on 15 May from timeanddate
Hollywoodbets Sharks vs Scarlets
Kickoff: 19:30 (SA time)
Venue: Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
• Weather Forecast: Mild and clear, temp in mid 20’s
• Humidity: 55-60%
• Forecast sourced at 15h17 on 15 May from timeanddate
Leinster Rugby vs Glasgow Warriors
Kickoff: 20:35 (SA time)
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
• Weather Forecast: Clear, temp in high teens
• Humidity: Around 50%
• Forecast sourced at 15h19 on 15 May from timeanddate
NOT MUCH TO REPORT
Posted 12 May 23h52
I ma tied up with business and personal matters early in the week so expect more from me from Wednesday.
The lines are fairly stable at thi stage and no early moves.
URC WEEK 18 HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 12 May 13h07
The handicaps are out and below the Betxhange caps in brackets next to my projections
Friday, 16 May 2025
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DHL Stormers -18.5 (-16.5) vs Cardiff
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Edinburgh -14.5 (-10.5) vs Ulster
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Munster -6.5 (-10.5) vs Benetton
Saturday, 17 May 2025
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Vodacom Bulls -34.5 (to follow) vs Dragons
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Emirates Lions -5.5 (-2.5) vs Ospreys
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Zebre Parma +8.5 (+3.5) vs Connacht
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Hollywoodbets Sharks -15.5 (-11.5) vs Scarlets
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Leinster -23.5 (to follow) vs Glasgow Warriors
URC LOG AFTERWEEK 17
Posted 11 May 22h01
Here are the latest standings. 10 teams can still qualify heading into the last round
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Leinster Rugby – Played: 17, Points: 72
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Vodacom Bulls – Played: 17, Points: 63
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Glasgow Warriors – Played: 17, Points: 59
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Hollywoodbets Sharks – Played: 17, Points: 58
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DHL Stormers – Played: 17, Points: 50
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Scarlets – Played: 17, Points: 48
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Benetton Rugby – Played: 17, Points: 46
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Munster Rugby – Played: 17, Points: 46
👉 Top 8 teams qualify for quarter-finals
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Cardiff Rugby – Played: 17, Points: 46
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Edinburgh Rugby – Played: 17, Points: 44
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Ospreys – Played: 17, Points: 38
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Ulster Rugby – Played: 17, Points: 38
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Emirates Lions – Played: 17, Points: 35
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Connacht Rugby – Played: 17, Points: 35
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Zebre Parma – Played: 17, Points: 29
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Dragons RFC – Played: 17, Points: 9
Betting after Week 17
Leinster 4/10
Bulls 9/2
Sharks 9/1
Glasgow 10/1
Munster 14/1
Stormers 20/1
100/1 and better the balance
URC WEEK 17 RESULTS AND BETTING WRAP
Posted 11 May 21h55
Below are the results from week 17, the starting handicaps and how our bet fared.
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Hollywoodbets Sharks 29 – 10 Ospreys, handicap started Sharks -16.5, Blog Pick over 52.5 points was never a runner
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Munster 38 – 20 Ulster, handiap started Munster -8.5, Blog Pick over 48.5 points arrived
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Vodacom Bulls 45 – 21 Cardiff Rugby, handicap started Bulls -19.5, Blog Pick was over 56.5 the biggest play of the weekend and it arrived fairly comfortably.
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Benetton 33 – 7 Glasgow Warriors, handicap started Benetton +1.5, Blog Pick over 49.5 points was a loser and also cost us the 12./1 newsletter acca
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DHL Stormers 48 – 12 Dragons, handicap started Stormers -32.5, Blog Pick the weather was so confusing on this one I never had a bet
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Leinster 76 – 5 Zebre Parma, handicap started Leinster -35.5, Blog Pick Leinster -16.5 half time handicap was never in doubt
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Connacht 21 – 31 Edinburgh, handicap started Edinburgh +5.5, Blog Pick was Edinburgh to win at 2/1 and it landed
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Emirates Lions 19 – 32 Scarlets, handicap started Scarlets +4.5, Blog Picks were Scarlets over 25.5 (main bet) and Scarlets to win and over 56.5 points at 44/10. Scarlets overs insured a nice profit but it was disappointing that we didn't reach the 57 points