Autumn Internationals Week 4 incl IREv SA, ENG v ARG + other rugby

The good news is that I hit my two biggest bets of the weekend – England to win and overs in Scotland v Argentina. The bad news is that that was it as far as collections went, with all my other bets going down, so unfortunately it ended as a losing weekend overall.

We had some brilliant rugby, though. The Boks were impressive in beating Italy by 18 with 15 men (minus backers were not impressed with that final conversion being timed out). England were excellent against New Zealand and almost landed my speculative 15+ bet. Ireland dominated Australia, setting up this week’s clash with the Boks beautifully, and the comeback of the weekend came from Argentina, who overturned a 21–0 deficit after 55 minutes.

As we near the end of the international season, here are my handicap projections for next weekend:

• Wales +30.5 v New Zealand
• Ireland +6.5 v South Africa
• France -15.5 v Australia
• England -9.5 v Argentina 

The Week 4 betting blog is up and running , with a recap of last week and my projections. 

Betxchange are out and here is how they compare to mine 
I suggested -26.5 New Zealand last night on a whatsapp group but I think money will come for the visitors 
Rest are all within 2 pts

Wales +30.5 v New Zealand (bookies: +26.5)
Ireland +6.5 v South Africa (bookies: +4.5)
France -15.5 v Australia (bookies: -13.5)
England -9.5 v Argentina (bookies: -9.5)

seeing some early points lines at Hollywood - 

TONGA over 10.5 pts @ 9/10. Seem to be slowly getting act together and some decent players in their squad. Think the 10pts is a runner the whole game despite weather possibly wet.

NZ over 45.5 pts @ 17/20, total pts @ 59.5 @ 17/20.  Big pressure on All Blacks to put on a show and win big for their fans, press and whole country. Hollie reffing is a big red flag for me but will be going with an overs play here. Might split stake on NZ pts and match pts as Wales could get a few as well. 

 

Pablo , have seen Perpignan Down nearly 20 players between injuries and internationals this weekend against montpeiller. Montpeiller -1 is 10/11
 

BigRassie wrote:

Pablo , have seen Perpignan Down nearly 20 players between injuries and internationals this weekend against montpeiller. Montpeiller -1 is 10/11

 

Numbers suggest value in the away side but USAP new coaching staff so no bet to me now.

SA -5.5 @1.91 (big on this)
SA -17.5 @5.4 (beer money)

For those on sunbet:

England -5.5 2nd half handicap @1.88
Double: SA and Eng to win 2nd half @ evens

Really like these 2 aswell
 

Message de BigRassie=1074, identifiant utilisateur=330Pablo, Perpignan a vu son effectif se retrouver privé de près de 20 joueurs, entre blessures et sélections internationales, ce week-end face à Montpellier. La cote de Montpellier -1 est de 10/11.
 

The venue for the match between Perpignan and Montpellier has now been confirmed. Sanctioned following the incidents against Racing 92, the Catalan club will play in Béziers.

the weather will be of interest this weekend , currently very cold with snow, sleet and rain depending on where u are . 
it appears as if most of the bad stuff will have moved off by saturday but still a good idea to keep a good eye on things . 

Cheers Coil 

Blog updated with weather and match officials and the England line up 

As you say weather needs to be carefully watched this weekend - worst of it looks to be Scotland game 

Ended up going with Wales/NZ total overs rather than only NZ points. Think this will be an open game under the roof.

Over 58.5 @ 10/11 with Coral, to top up some over 59.5 smaller bet.

 

Join us live at 21h00 tonight for The Handicap where I am joined by The Mossman and The Oracle who should be unplayable after a big weekend 

Watch and set a reminder on You Tube 

Blog updated with bet in Wales v AB's 

New Zealand over 6.5 tries at 17/20 

Lyon -7.5 ha @1.90 2u

Lou with a nice compo, specially with the return of Couilloud (some international absences but still a strong lineup) while Clermont more affected by injuries and internacional call ups (no Fainga, Montagne, Ceyte, Simmons, Kremer, Sowakula, Jauneau, Darricarrere, Delguy). Line to me around 13 points advantage to the home side so value in Lyon.

Blog updated with bets in Bok and French games 

Boks -6.5 at 0.93 
Australia under 18.5 at 9/10 

 

Bath -23.5 ha @1.80 3u

Big stake here, Bath with a pretty powerful lineup with plenty of usual starters while Sale Sharks with an academy side. If they are on point this should be a 35-40 points difference match, so value in the home side.

Taken some 11/1 Williams last SA try scorer - off the bench and lightening quick against tired legs 

Have taken a rare again over totals in Cardiff at 59.5 , unders in Dublin at 47.5 . 

In Exeter atm visiting my daughter , pissing down with rain and wind , hence I'll be looking at unders in the Rugby Cup if it keeps this momentum . Currently 52.5 . 

Play well 

a good afternoon of rugby - 

wales v nz - over 58.5 pts @ 10/11, and a smaller bet over 59.5. 

ire v boks - boks over 26.5 pts @ evens. 

ire v boks - player of match SFM @ 13/2

still looking at other games.

Romania vs Uruguay

Romania played two matches in this international window.
They beat Canada 31-21 and then lost to USA 18-26.

In July this year, in Montevideo, Uruguay beat Romania 70-8, but Romania played without most of the first team players, as they were not available.
Today they want the revenge.

In the past few years Uruguay progressed a lot and they are now ranked 15, while Romania are 21st.
Except the match in July, the results between these two countries have been quite tight, and certainly within the handicap today.

The conditions are good in Bucharest and Uruguay play fast rugby, so I hope we'll see lots of points.

Bet 1: Romania +12.5 @1.90
Bet 2: Romania team total over 19.5 @1.92
Bet 3: Total match points over 50.5 @1.90

Added Reuben Love man match @ 10/1