6 Nations Round 2, Super Rugby Wk 1 + other rugby 9-15 Feb

A poor start to the 6 Nations for me. 
I got off to a decent start hitting under 50.5 in France but the overs in Italy and Wales plus were never in the running 

Onto this week and we have handicaps 

• Ireland -19.5 v Italy
• Scotland +8.5 v England
• Wales +28.5 v France

I clean forgot about Super Rugby - below are the current handicaps 

Blues v Chiefs should be a cracker 

• Highlanders +8.5 v Crusaders
• Waratahs +1.5 v Reds
• Fijian Drua -8.5 v Moana Pasifika
• Blues +3.5 v Chiefs
• Western Force +2.5 v Brumbies

All over Italy +19.5. Took 1 unit Italy win @11/1 as well. Price just too big given current form of both teams.

Welsh cap now at +31.5
Scotland in to +7.5

Money for Force and Waratahs. Early value gone. I reckon both have strong winning chances. One can't be over reliant on pre-season warm-up results, Blues and Chiefs both had good hit outs this past weekend. Leaning towards Crusaders -8.5 as I feel this is likely a double digit winning margin coming up.

Drua v Moana: Moana +8.5  would have arrived in the last 5 meetings between the teams. 

like a bit of HT/FT = Italy/Ireland @ 13/2

Italians started well last week and can do again in Dublin. 

Round one super rugby team and officials are out. As usual looking for points, and with some possible rain about in a few games it’s game one under the roof I’m getting involved in as first bet -

Highlanders v Saders
Over 56.5 pts @ 9/10 

one of the best overs ref and decent backlines on both sides, while Saders bench is really stacked for a good 2nd half flourish. 

 

Chiefs without McKenzie, Sititi, Carter, Narawa and Simon Parker. Blues win 18/10. Taking some +4.5 as well. Big things expected from the 10-12 of Perofeta and Akhi for the Blues. 

JacquesT wrote:

Chiefs without McKenzie, Sititi, Carter, Narawa and Simon Parker. Blues win 18/10. Taking some +4.5 as well. Big things expected of the 10-12 of Perofeta and Akhi for the Blues. 

Interesting, never been a fan of Perofeta, possibly unfair as he’s been blighted with injuries but just never been the same attacking threat after first couple seasons. Will give him another chance, but this game if weather forecast improves will be an overs punt for me. 

Super Rugby Pacific Blog up and running 

1st bet I am following Jacques and The Mossman who I touched sides with while getting Thursdays panel together 

Blues win at 35/20 

SRP Blog Updated 

Following South with the overs 

Over 56.5 at 9/10 

Wheeling out the big guns for Six Nations and Super Rugby on THE HANDICAP  live at 21h00 

The Mossman and The Admiral are in studio 

Click here to watch or set a reminder on You Tube 

I'm wondering if Wales have a game in them like that against the Irish last year? It was a close encounter and the game drifted away as Ireland kicked a few penalties late on and won by 9pts. Maybe the French will be over confident too.

Either way I'm throwing money on them again at +31.5  :-o 

Six Nations: Ireland cap into 17.5 now, still feel its too high despite Ireland recalling Lowe and Baloucoune at wing. Italian scrum stood their man last weekend and will be another tough test for a struggling Irish scrum. This Italian team will be no pushover. 

Italy + 17.5 

Scotland v England - A one point loss at Twickenham last year means that Scotland have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the teams. I just can't back the Scots with any confidence at this moment. I feel Townsend is making a big mistake by not selecting the trusted back three of Kinghorn, Graham and v.d Merwe. England will have the advantage up front, their winning streak will be extended to 13.

My bet: England 1-12 @ 17/10

Wales (+31.5) v France - I feel France will try and bank the bonus point as fast as possible and then take their feet off the gas in the second half. They've had a few disruptions in the week and were forced to select a new centre pairing for this match due to injuries to Moefana and Depoortere. Wales have nothing to lose and hopefully they can have a performance like the one against the Irish last year as Jameson pointed out. 

Will post my final Superrugby picks in a bit. 

France over 6.5 tries @ 5/6

I'm sure Wales will improve but i cannot see past the french crossing the whitewash on a regular basis. the new centre pairing connects the new hottest prospect in french rugby in Brau-Boirie with an all out attacking flyhalf and 9. this combo is worth watching on Sunday - i feel BB will thrive off the attack-minded Jalibert from what i've seen of him for Pau this season. This Pau centre combo helped them beat Toulouse a few months ago, and also big factor in the 2nd position on top 14 log.

prefer the tries overs vs pts which is around 45.5. i just can't have Wales on the plus right now, hopefully they give plus punters a good display, but ideally that's in a high scoring game.

Not a big points punter, but had a look at the Super Rugby First Round results for the past three seasons:

2025 - 4/5 went over 55.5. Exception Blues 14-25 Chiefs
2024 - 4/6 went over 55.5 Exceptions Rebels 3-30 Brumbies, Blues 34-10 Drua
2023 - 5/6 went over 55.5 Exception Crusaders 10-31 Chiefs

Highlanders v Crusaders - Going Crusaders -7.5. This should  be a game of attack where defense might seem optional at stages. A two try difference isn't too much to ask for. With Southpaw on the Overs here.

Waratahs v Reds: Money has come for the Waratahs from an opening call of 2/1 into 8/10 favorites currently. Tahs impressed by winning SuperRugby Aus last year and look to be in a much better place than two seasons ago. Reds missing  a few Wallabies in McDermott, Harry Wilson, Daugunu, Lynagh, Nasser and recently acquired Carter Gordon. Took 2/1 Waratahs win when betting opened so happy with that. 

Drua v Moana: Moana +9.5 as highlited earlier this week.

Blues v Chiefs - Blues win currently 16/10 from 18/10 just after teams were announced. Chiefs missing a few big names. Staying with the Blues win and also +3.5.

Force v Brumbies - Force win opened 9/4 and is currently trading at 21/20. They have recruited well and boast a decent recent H2H Record against the Brumbies. Brumbies missing Alaalatoa, Tom Wright, Nick Frost and Lachlan Lonergan for this match. Force win still good for me @ 21/20.

 

No strong feel on 1st game up, but think Landers come out hissing and Saders have an AB front row on the bench

For an interest HT/FT Landers/Saders @ 7

Morning guys. All the best with the bets on Superrugby this morning.

Highlanders have swapped their starting lineup with De Groot and Taavao moving to the bench and the original replacement props now starting.

Anytime try-scorer: Jonah Lowe 7/4

Ireland v Italy Preview 

Nothing strong here so trying a 32/10 Bet Builder 

Italy +7.5 HT, Ireland by 10+ 

Piss poor start (and Wales havent even  played yet!) on the overs - glimmer of hope on 50mins but extinguished.......

Got a bad feeling about this weekend!

EDIT: gone under 56.5 in the Waratahs game :-o

Scotland v England Preview 

I am taking a solid strike on England over 27.5 at 19/20 

Overs no good in Dunedin. Terrible handling for an indoor game. 

thankfully Tangitau 14/1 1st try lands (posted on last nights rugby show) to ensure a profit on game. 

tonight gone ENGLAND u20 OVER 31.5 pts @ 10/11. They struggled in really poor conditions last week but dry, artificial surface today and a powerful scrum and maul should give them plenty front foot.