Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF

Broke about square this weekend and what a pity the Stormers couldn't seal the deal at Toulon. 

This weekend it is the quarter-finals 

Bath vs Northampton Saints
Glasgow Warriors vs Toulon
Leinster vs Sale Sharks
Bordeaux Bègles vs Toulouse

That final match should be a belter 

Here are the round 9 Super Rugby Fixtures - with my projected handicaps 

Highlanders -2.5 vs Brumbies
Moana Pasifika +25.5 vs Chiefs
Fijian Drua -6.5 vs Western Force
Hurricanes -5.5 vs Blues
Reds +3.5 vs Crusaders

And on Monday night we have the Varsity Cup semis with current handicaps below 

Eagles -4.5 v Maties 
Tuks -25.5 v UJ 

SRP Blog is up with a review of last week and a comparison of my handicaps to the eaarly lines (in brackets) 

Highlanders -2.5 (-1.5) vs Brumbies
Moana Pasifika +25.5 (+39.5) vs Chiefs
Fijian Drua -6.5 (-4.5) vs Western Force
Hurricanes -5.5 (-6.5) vs Blues
Reds +3.5 (+5.5) vs Crusaders

Close in all but the Chiefs game, wow 39.5 seems high and surely that comes in a few points? That being said I cannot brng myself to back Moana 

Here are the early Champions Cup lines 

Bath -10.5 v Northampton Saints
Glasgow Warriors -10.5 v Toulon
Leinster -17.5 v Sale Sharks
Bordeaux Begles -2.5 v Toulouse

Varsity Cup

Make NWU v Maties close to choice on basis that Maties won 30-26 two weeks ago and are defensively marginally better. Maties have conceded 50 fewer points over the seven matches. Object in semi is to win so no real reason for Tuks to keep at 100% all match plus biggest margin in last four semi's was 14.


Double 

Maties win  and  UJ + 24.5  @  7/2

Trying something different in this weeks blog and am handing the tipping over to a model I am testing for one of The Handicap and Goodforthegame regulars 

It has thrown up a max bet Brumbies -1.5 in the opener 
 

The Handicap is back live at 21h00 tonight and The Mossman and The Admiral are on the panel. 

Click here to watch on You Tube  

Fired the over 56.5 @ 5/6 Highlanders v Brumbies tomorrow am. Need a fast start and a few early tries. 

Took the 9/10 on offer from WSB on a Brumbies win last night. More than happy with that. I personally capped this game at 8.5

Highlanders under 27.5 points @ Pokerbet. Landers only crossed this mark in wins against Moana and Force this season thus far. More often than not, they struggle to score this much points against the "bigger teams" in the competition. Also testing a theory that when the cap is completely wrong, you take unders on the team that should have had the higher plus as the bookies give them a higher points line than they should have. 

Charlie Cale is on a six-game try scoring streak, yes it won't continue forever, but feel this is a game where his streak can continue. Anytime try scorer 5/4 @ WSB

I got sucker punched into the overs @48.5 in live play - Jesus.

Jameson wrote:

I got sucker punched into the overs @48.5 in live play - Jesus.

its been the worse game I’ve watched all year. I may need to call it a day on super rugby. I just cannot call it compared to past season, I don’t know if I’m disconnected from rugby down there or just relying on past trends too much. Either way I just gift any winnings on European rugby back on super rugby, painful. 

Yes, grim in the extreme.

Looks like the GFTG top punters got saved by a yellow card there!

Southpaw wrote:

Jameson wrote:

I got sucker punched into the overs @48.5 in live play - Jesus.

its been the worse game I’ve watched all year. I may need to call it a day on super rugby. I just cannot call it compared to past season, I don’t know if I’m disconnected from rugby down there or just relying on past trends too much. Either way I just gift any winnings on European rugby back on super rugby, painful. 

My theory is that there's too much rugby, across too many comps / countries/ going on.
If you apply the same criteria anything like Super rugby in any other compo, your're fxked.
IMO the PREM is the most reliable and steady,  call it proper rugby ( LOL).
From there on the comps get wilder and woolier.  we've even have some little blonde drom-poppies in mini skirts blowing the whistle - imagine how the blood for the props woodies must drain their heads.  CHAOS.
I reckon when you get down to it, it's just like rest of the world - going daft.
Who agrees ?
Or thinks I should go back to my therapist.