Fifa World Cup, June and July Football

With club football finished it's all about the World Cup for the next couple of months. Plenty of warm ups before the first game, Mexico v South Africa on 11th June.

Will take this week to put some outright previews up and we can use this thread for all bets, pre tournament outrights and individual matches when they get underway.

All your World Cup bets are most welcome here



 

I've put some betting and squads for each group up  here  and we will have a preview for every match of the tournament. 

Haven't settled on any outright bets as yet, think the hot weather could be a bit of a leveler. Sportingbet prices to win the tournament below.



All your World Cup bets are most welcome here

Only started looking at the outrights today. Probably never get to the end of them but here's an early spot that will have me taking a plunge

Any goalkeeper to provide an assist including over time - Yes
An assist being if a player receives a ball directly from a goalkeeper's throw or kick and scores without the oppositiion taking control of the ball. 104 Matches including overtime. Odds seem reasonable

Goalkeeper assist - Yes  @  4/1

Guys has anyone seen a market for goals scored by the Golden Boot? 

WSB have one but I am curious to see what other bookms may have to compare prices 

The Vann wrote:

Only started looking at the outrights today. Probably never get to the end of them but here's an early spot that will have me taking a plunge

Any goalkeeper to provide an assist including over time - Yes
An assist being if a player receives a ball directly from a goalkeeper's throw or kick and scores without the oppositiion taking control of the ball. 104 Matches including overtime. Odds seem reasonable

Goalkeeper assist - Yes  @  4/1

Hi Vann, could you please share which bookie that is with? Thanks bud

As Vann said there is plenty to research, plus most markets seem pointless. One that stood out to me is South Africa to lose all three games in Pool A at 4.6/1 (Hollywoodbets).

This Bafana side seem to have peaked in 2024 when finishing third in the AFCON. Since then the football has not been the best and the team have stuggled against non african sides. You have to go way back to 2015 for the last time SA have beaten a non-african team.

Recent results do not bode well too, with draws to Jamaica, Panama, Nicaragua and a defeat to Panama all in the space of the last few months leading up to this tournament. Those sides are not even in the same class as Mexico, Czech or South Korea. 

@ The Vann - >Goalkeeper assist > - how many times does that even happen ? - eg The Premier league? I probably don't watch more than 8 hours of soccer in a month, but I've never seen that happen. Sounds like a tie in test cricket to me

I don't know the answer to the goalkeeper assist question but would guess it is more likely in mismatches and we may get a few in the group stages. 

should have asked Mr Google 1st - 4 assists in the last Premier league season  - so 4 in how many mathes?  380  

I haven't seen the market and no idea on stats but I do quite like Vann's bet for a goalkeeper assist and especially with that including over time element.

Some of these keepers can pick a pass nowadays, Sunderland's keeper would / should have had 2 assists in the EPL this season had his strikers not missed what were decent chances. Then the usual ploy of teams chasing a game towards the end of normal time or injury time throwing everyone forward including the GK. 

Another angle I like is it give's you an outright interest right through the tournament 

Yeah the odds seem reasoable based on thise EPL stats 

@Chris and if it hits early you can find another long term interest 

I think the Kompos post is accurate in a league situation. This World Cup is set up with Premier League sides and some teams from two divisions lower. Many of the matches are going to consist of one team parking the bus and only playing on the break. There is going to be an enormous amount of rolling on the ground and dying displays and time wasting is going to be an art form. In this shitty environment I think goals on the break come into play more so than in any evenly matched league.

I found the goalkeeper assist at WSB/Soccer/Outrights/World/Competition Specials

Vin Naidoo wrote:

As Vann said there is plenty to research, plus most markets seem pointless. One that stood out to me is South Africa to lose all three games in Pool A at 4.6/1 (Hollywoodbets).

This Bafana side seem to have peaked in 2024 when finishing third in the AFCON. Since then the football has not been the best and the team have stuggled against non african sides. You have to go way back to 2015 for the last time SA have beaten a non-african team.

Recent results do not bode well too, with draws to Jamaica, Panama, Nicaragua and a defeat to Panama all in the space of the last few months leading up to this tournament. Those sides are not even in the same class as Mexico, Czech or South Korea. 

I like this bet. Took a chunk at Sunbet where it is being offered as Bafana points - 0. Also being boosted for two days so on offer at 8/1. 

can we still send personal messages on this forum - I want to send The Vann something that I don't want to post on the open forum

Kompos I don't think its activated but assume it can be done 

I will check with Chris but in the interim and both willing I can put you in touch with each other by email - just email me brent@goodforthegame.co.za 

Let’s look at the actual math before donating money to the bookies.(I'd rather give it to the next car guard)At 4/1, the bookie is implying a 20% probability (a 1-in-5 chance) that any goalkeeper gets an official assist during this tournament. In reality, the true statistical probability is well under 2%.Here are the hard facts:1.     The Historical Reality: Since modern, detailed assist tracking began in 1966, there has been exactly 1 verified goalkeeper assist (Manuel Neuer in 2010) in roughly 800 World Cup matches played. That is a raw historical frequency of 0.12%.2.     The 104-Match Math: Even if the expanded 48-team format and weaker defenses make a keeper assist five times more likely than it has been historically, the probability only climbs to 0.6%.3.     The Data Provider Trap: FIFA and official data logs (like Opta) have strict rules. If a goalkeeper launches a long ball and a defender gets a slight head or boot flick trying to clear it before the striker scores, the official assist is completely wiped out. If a striker takes a short keeper throw and has to dribble past a defender before scoring, it is coded as an individual goal, not a keeper assist.

Taking 4/1 for a 100/1 statistical anomaly is a
massive mathematical trap. It's essentially the football equivalent of
betting on a true Tie in a Test cricket match but only getting paid
out at casual underdog odds 

Now tell me I’m not fun having around

Some outright plays, taking me way too long so these will have to do for me

Preview Here 

Which Player Will Provide The Most Assists? Michael Olise at 10/1 with  Sportingbet 
What Will Be The Highest Scoring Group? Group J at 8/1 with  Lucky Fish 
Highest Scoring Team France at 6/1 with  Lucky Fish 

Spain + France + England to make the Quarter Finals @5.25

Quill wrote:

Spain + France + England to maOke the Quarter Finals @5.25

Out of interest, where did you manage to place that bet Quill?
I seem to be struggling to find a bookie that will allow me to pair up multi's for respective teams to reach the quarters.

Bookie Basher wrote:

Quill wrote:

Spain + France + England to maOke the Quarter Finals @5.25

Out of interest, where did you manage to place that bet Quill?
I seem to be struggling to find a bookie that will allow me to pair up multi's for respective teams to reach the quarters.

Bet365