6 Nations Rd 3, Super Rugby Rd 2, Lions v Sharks + other rugby 16-23 Feb

I had an absolute shocker in Super Rugby and my biggest bet of the weekend, namely England overs was never a runner. I clawed back on tries in Wales v France but the big swing for me in the 6 Nations was Ireland not scoring at the end to land the bet builder - how Crowley missed touch from there heaven only knows. 

Overall my form could not be colder. 

A busy week ahead and I will start a separate Varsity Cup thread and then we have Super Rugby, 6 Nations and the Lions at home to the Sharks in a make up game 

Have a great week and I look forward to your thoughts 

Here are my projected handicaps for Super Rugby Pacific 

Friday 20 February 2026

• Hurricanes -20.5 v Moana Pasifika
• Waratahs -16.5 v Fijian Drua

Saturday 21 February 2026

• Highlanders +6.5 v Chiefs
• Western Force +11.5 v Blues

Sunday 22 February 2026

• Crusaders -9.5 v Brumbies

Early 6 Nations lines 

• England -11.5 v Ireland
• Wales +20.5 v Scotland
• France -30.5 v Italy

Super Rugby early caps in brackets next to mine 

Hurricanes -20.5 (-12.5)  v Moana Pasifika
Waratahs -16.5 (-11.5) v Fijian Drua
Highlanders +6.5 (+9.5) v Chiefs
Western Force +11.5 (+11.5) v Blues
Crusaders -9.5 (-8.5) v Brumbies

Big differences in  the top 2 games but more likely that I am wrong than the bookies 

Italy +31.5pts away to France Bet365 28.5pts elsewhere

France have been terrific but 31.5 is a big number to cover against a much meaner Italian defence. 
I'll play Alt handicap on Eng minus and Sco minus

Moana +12.5 the only cap that stands out i.m.o. They've got the advantage of having had a competitive 80min under the belt and morale will be high after the easy win. Canes went down 29-0 to the Chiefs in pre-season for what its worth.

Brent Graham wrote:

I had an absolute shocker in Super Rugby and my biggest bet of the weekend, namely England overs was never a runner. 

Overall my form could not be colder. 

 

i think that you'll battle to find a rugby punter who's form recently has been good.
Nah, you're not alone there Brent.
I had a brain 'explosion' last Saturday, siting in my office. I thought I'd fallen of the roof.
Another beer, and back to the drawing board for me, trying not to let anyone see my tears  Cut my unit size. and back into the fray.
Coyboys don'r cry. The courage that you guys show in tipping us is amazing- hats off to you.
TALLY HO CHAPS..

JacquesT wrote:

Moana +12.5 the only cap that stands out i.m.o. They've got the advantage of having had a competitive 80min under the belt and morale will be high after the easy win. Canes went down 29-0 to the Chiefs in pre-season for what its worth.

Scrap this after seeing the Moana lineup announced this morning. Didn't expect them to make 13 changes to their starting lineup from the past weekend. Cap now out to Brent's original cap of 20.5. 

Kirky wrote:

Brent Graham wrote:

I had an absolute shocker in Super Rugby and my biggest bet of the weekend, namely England overs was never a runner. 

Overall my form could not be colder. 


 

i think that you'll battle to find a rugby punter who's form recently has been good.
Nah, you're not alone there Brent.
I had a brain 'explosion' last Saturday, siting in my office. I thought I'd fallen of the roof.
Another beer, and back to the drawing board for me, trying not to let anyone see my tears  Cut my unit size. and back into the fray.
Coyboys don'r cry. The courage that you guys show in tipping us is amazing- hats off to you.
TALLY HO CHAPS..

Agree 110% with this. Respect and many thanks to Brent, Chris and all involved. Personally I have learned a lot from this forum and find joy reading how people analyze, spot and form bets.