South Africa v New Zealand Second Test, Currie Cup Week 7, Australia v Argentina

The past week was a real mixed bag for me, with under 58.5 points (the newsletter play) arriving in the South Africa v New Zealand Test at Ellis Park, although I still came away disappointed after the Boks went down by 17 points.

I hit the Stormers outright with an early play in the Currie Cup and also had a good win on the overs in that game. Things didn't go quite as well in the other matches, though, and the final game saw me give my weekend profits back as the Cheetahs failed to reach the 38 point mark.

Perhaps more annoyingly, my initial fancy of Cheetahs -8.5 arrived so I was left kicking myself for taking the wrong decision!

This week we have the Lions taking on New Zealand on Tuesday, followed by the final round of Currie Cup action over the weekend.And, of course, we have the critical second Test between South Africa and New Zealand in Cape Town.

The early handicap is South Africa -5.5, which is just a point higher than where I would have put it.

We also have Australia v Argentina and plenty of other rugby to keep an eye on.

Have a good one, everyone, and I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts as the week progresses.

Currie Cup Blog is up and projected handicaps are up 

Let me know where you would be firing 

Lions +5.5 v Stormers XXIII
Sharks XV -9.5 v Blue Bulls XV
Pumas -9.5 v Cheetahs
Boland +5.5 v Griquas

Some comment around the games in the blog 

Lions vs AB's. Haven't seen a handicap yet but these are the line ups for Tuesday night, 

Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Kelly Mpeku, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Richard Kriel, 11 Erich Cronje, 10 Chris Smit, 9 Nico Steyn, 8 Francke Horn, 7 Batho Hlekani, 6 Siba Mahashe, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Sebastian Lombard, 2 PJ Botha, 1 SJ Kotze 
Replacements: 16 Morne Brandon, 17 Boan Venter, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 21 JC Pretorius, 22 Haashim Pead, 23 Boeta Chamberlain 

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Fehi Fineanganofo, 13 Rieko Ioane , 12 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 11 Emoni Narawa, 10 Richi Mo’unga, 9 Noah Hotham, 8 Semisi Ta’eiloa, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 4 Sam Darry, 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Siale Lauaki 

Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Saula Ma’u, 19 Jamie Hannah, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Josh Jacomb, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown
 

Lions +35.5 v New Zealand @ Pokerbet. My early Superbru pick was 36 points so no bet on the cap.
They've also priced NZ points on 51.5 and Lions on 15.5.

Bulls and Stormers managed to score 3 tries against the All Blacks  and I like the look of the Lions team. Sure they will throw the ball around. Lions over 15.5 points. 
 

Credit to Rugby365:

Springbok team to face the All Blacks in Cape Town:
15 Damian Willemse (DHL Stormers) – 53 caps, 76 pts (8t, 9c, 4p, 2dg)
14 Kurt-Lee Arendse (Mitsubishi Dynaboars) – 33 caps, 125 pts (25t)
13 Jesse Kriel (Canon Eagles) – 91 caps, 115 pts (23t)
12 Damian de Allende (Wild Knights) – 100 caps, 55 pts (11t)
11 Ethan Hooker (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 10 caps, 10 pts (2t)
10 Handre Pollard (Vodacom Bulls) – 87 caps, 832 pts (8t, 130 c, 175 p, 5dg)
9 Cobus Reinach (DHL Stormers) – 54 caps, 100 pts (20t)
8 Jasper Wiese (Urayasu D-Rocks) – 46 caps, 20 pts (4t)
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain, Toyota Verblitz) – 99 caps, 70 pts (14t)
6 Siya Kolisi (DHL Stormers) – 104 caps, 70 pts (14t) / Paul de Villiers (DHL Stormers) – 4 cap, 5 pts (1t)
5 Ruan Nortje (Kubota Spears) – 21 caps, 5 pts (1t)
4 Eben Etzebeth (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 143 caps, 45 pts (9t)
3 Wilco Louw (DHL Stormers) – 32 caps, 10 pts (2t)
2 Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears) – 90 caps, 135 pts (27t)
1 Ox Nche (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 49 caps, 0 pts

Replacements:
16 Deon Fourie (DHL Stormers) – 13 caps, 10 pts (2t)
17 Gerhard Steenekamp (Vodacom Bulls) – 20 caps, 10 pts (2t)
18 Thomas du Toit (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 34 caps, 10 pts (2t)
19 Lood de Jager (Wild Knights) – 74 caps, 25 pts (5t)
20 Andre Esterhuizen (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 32 caps, 30 pts (6t)
21 Cameron Hanekom (Vodacom Bulls) – 3 caps, 5 pts (1t)
22 Morne van den Berg (10bet Lions) – 7 caps, 25 pts (5t)
23 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (DHL Stormers) – 21 caps, 177 pts (9t, 45c, 14p)

Lions +39.5 cap is first line i've seen. I'm waiting for overs/try overs lines, which is where my interest will be.

Sunbet offering 10.5 total match tries
lions 2.5 tries
All Blacks 8.5 tries

Lions v NZ
PJ Botha ATS 13/2 @ Coral
Bet365 have him at 9/4

Worth a play

Lions v New Zealand Preview 

Battling for a firm view so a LTS interest for now 

Preston last AB Try Scorer at 12/1 

Same here Brent. Hovering between total unders and Sititi anytime...

Taken Lions over 16.5 @ evens 

i couldn’t get the 15.5 but to me this is same as 16.5 as don’t see any 3’s being taken. I just don’t like the NZ bench and think that having been the training opposition for Boks the last few weeks, the Lions may have learnt a few things about their opponents tonight. 

Will look to add some big priced tryscorer punts. 

For those interested....Lions total points over 14.5 at 9/10 with Sunbet

Okay, nothing firm. Settled on small interest plays. NZ last try scorers:

Slater @ 12/1
Tu'ungafasi @ 40/1 (Called up to the squad late, should want to catch some shine. Solid on a pick n go close to the line)

Joining in on the Try Scorer Market

He scored quite a few for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby. NZ First Try Scorer - Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa 14/1 @ WSB

Total Points line is 71.5. Waiting for kickoff, will consider under 79.5 in-play if there is a fast start from one or both teams. 

Have ended up going over 70.5 at 0.93/1 

Lions v New Zealand Preview

I've gone Darkness -36.5. 

So my advice to you is the go Lions +36.5 !

EDIT:  There we are - my bet lost after 5 mins lol

shaft wrote:

Okay, nothing firm. Settled on small interest plays. NZ last try scorers:

Slater @ 12/1
Tu'ungafasi @ 40/1 (Called up to the squad late, should want to catch some shine. Solid on a pick n go close to the line)

Late change by the All Blacks. Tu'ungafasi ruled out with illness. Xavier Numia replaces him on the bench.

Fineanganofo
Taukeiaho
Narawa
Taratavanawai
Ioane

all to score try @ 16/1

Darkness -18.5 @half time. Punish me!