Rugby: Hamilton 7s, Pro 14, Premiership + other 24-26 Jan
- Brent Graham
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This weekend we have the Hamilton 7s and there is also English Pemiership and a lone Pro 14 game with the Kings hosting the Cheetahs
We will have our rugby betting show The Handicap on Thursday night and "Use it or Lose it" returns tonight at 21h00 with Couch talking to Yellow Cap and Judge Rugby about the SA Super Rugby squads and the logic behind bringing veterans like Steyn and Roberts to Super Rugby rather than just 100% backing the youngsters
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- Brent Graham
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- RuggaBugga
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France are 10/1 at Hollywood and represents some value.
Winner of Pool B and C face each other so it could be SA vs France in Semi 1.
The Blitzbokke are without Senatla, Sage, Specman, Soyizwapi, Nel and Oosthuizen (Thats 6 members of the squad that faced NZ in the final in CPT). The Blitzies will be no-where near the levels in the first 2 tourneys and going against them could well be an autoplay in Day 1.
France look to have their full side from CPT and they have a lovely balance of strength (Veredamu and Laugel) and creativity (Parez and Barraque). Bouhraoua is also back and he has loads of 7s experience so they are a settled side. France narrowly lost by 1 try to the Blitzies in Cape Town so this could swing in their favour with the massive changes to the SA side. Fancy France to beat SA on Day 2.
Then NZ should face Fiji in the other Semi. The good news for France is that one of them will be knocked out!
Fiji are without Dranisinukula while NZ are without Knewstubb and Rokolisoa. This game could always go either way and will be won on the final play of the game.
Looking ahead to the final, France beat Fiji 29-24 in Cape Town's bronze final so will take confidence if they face Fiji.
Facing NZ in a final in their back yard, that could be tough but at 10/1, it will be worth the ride
Early punt
1 unit - France to win the Hamilton 7s at 10/1 at Hollies
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- son_of_a_punt
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Over the last 4 series Hamilton has the lowest tries per game out of any 7s leg on the circuit.
However, in saying this, Hamilton has a brand new turf that has been fast-tracked for the 7s so should provide a beautiful playing field, conducive for higher scoring rugby. Furthermore, the weather forecast is hot and dry this weekend.
We don’t see any real value in the outrights for the tournament. As RB alluded to, semi 1 is likely Fiji v NZ while semi 2 is SA v France.
As great as France are, I don’t think odds of 10 is high enough to warrant a pre tournament bet. You could probably get better value by betting on them to win each match , including the final. I do think they’re a good shout for the tournament though, however We have them at about 14/1 to win the tournament.
Outright pick: none
With regards to team news:
Most teams have announced strong squads. USA welcome back iosefo and pinkelman which should boost them back to their 2019 self. USA to win pool A at 6.5 seems a bit high, however NZ should be too strong for them. But will be on a double digit USA plus for sure v Nz
Pool B:
Kenya have injera back, while SA lose some players but still have an extremely strong team. We have a sneaky feeling about Kenya this weekend so Will be sure to be waiting on some Kenya pluses. England are missing a few regulars and look average. But they tend to play well against SA!
Pool C:
This pool should be exciting with 3 good teams in the mix. France have been awesome and should top the pool. Ireland announced a strong squad and will look to build on their good Start. Canada still missing Douglas.
Pool D should be a cracker as Fiji, aus and Argentina all look strong, while Samoa can always turn up too.
We’ll have more opinions when match handicaps come out.
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- Shazzadude
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I can see the logic in taking the French men given they're quite likely to win their pool, but I feel you would want a bit more than $9 or $10.
In the women's it seems a foregone conclusion that New Zealand will win and that's reflected in the $1.30 odds. Unlike the men though, the best second place team will also qualify with the three pool winners for the semi-finals, so there will be a strong incentive for teams to try and run up big scores against the minnows in their pools.
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- Shazzadude
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Ireland -5.5 v Canada
France -17.5 v Spain
England -7.5 v Kenya
South Africa -33.5 v Japan
Australia -7.5 v Argentina
Fiji -17.5 v Samoa
USA -15.5 v Scotland
New Zealand -27.5 v Wales
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- NicG
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Might have a situation where three teams each have 2 wins and 1 loss.
So points difference will then be vital. So this might result in teams going even harder than normal to score as many as possible tries....so overs on points might become a play to consider?
Looking forward to get some hot tips from all the regular sevens punters
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- TheBettingStig
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Northampton 13.5 vs London Irish
Stig's line: 12
Tip: Plus 13.5
Northampton Saints lost a number of key players to Six Nations duty and the algorithm suggest the visitors can keep it tighter than expected.
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- Brad Breath
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They have decent depth and suspect they'll have the edge up front.
Not a massive stake, as keeping powder dry for Super Rugby and 6N
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- Brent Graham
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- son_of_a_punt
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Round 1 Matches:
Match: Ireland v Canada (BEST BET)
Pick: Canada +7.5 @ 1.85 (Interbet)
Match: France vs Spain
Pick: France -17.5 @ 1.85 (ESBN)
Match: Kenya vs England
Pick: Kenya +5.5 @ 2 (SupaBets)
Match: Australia v Australia (BEST BET)
Pick: Australia -4.5 @1.85 (Interbet)
Match: Fiji vs Samoa
Pick: Samoa +15.5 1.80 (ESBN)
Match: USA vs Scotland (BEST BET)
Pick: USA -11.5 @ 1.78 (ESBN)
Refer to the show if you want to hear the rational. We have indicated our three best bets.
Round 2 Matches:
We do think the value will be in the second round of matches. Note that these are just predicted caps and are not out yet.
Match: South Africa vs England
Pick: Take South Africa minus if it is anything less than 12.5
Match: Fiji vs Australia
Pick: Take Australia plus if it is anything bigger than 10.5
Match: Scotland vs Wales
Pick: Take Scotland minus if it is anything less than 13.5
Follow us on twitter for our in-play tips if you are interested.
Good luck gents!
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- Shazzadude
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- RuggaBugga
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SA vs Japan
SA thrashed the Japanese 7s side 49-0 in Cape Town with a couple of very soft tries scored. One was while Japan had the ball in their 22 and somehow passed it to Senatla who dotted down. 3 of the try-scorers for SA are MIA this weekend (Senatla, Nel and Speckmagic).
Japan also had a very green side with just 81 tournament caps between them.
This weekend the Japs welcome back Toquiri and Ozawa and their side is more experienced with 176 caps between them. Japan get into the Olympics as a host nation and they are starting their preparations for that this weekend. Its a massive one for them and they will not want to be disgraced in game 1. I just feel that 6 tries is a bit of a stretch for a Blitzies side without as much pace as prior tournaments.
Japan +35.5 at 1.86 at Playa - Cracker punt!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Bookie Basher
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- TheBettingStig
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Bath 5.5 v Leicester
S-line: -1
Plus 5.5
Bristol 2.5 v Gloucester
S-line: -5
Plus 2.5
Exeter 11.5 v Sale
S-line: 7
Plus 11.5
Worcester 1.5 v Wasps
S-line: 5
Minus 1.5
Harlequins 2.5 v Saracens
S-line: -7
Plus 2.5
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- southpaw
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- TheBettingStig
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Lyon 3.5 vs Toulon
Stig line: -3
Tip: Plus 3.5
Brive 3.5 vs Pau
Stig line: 8
Tip: Minus 3.5
Castres 1.5 vs Racing92
Stig line: -6
Tip: Plus 1.5
La Rochelle 6.5 vs Montpellier
Stig line: 10
Tip: Minus 6.5
Toulouse 6.5 vs Bordeaux
Stig line: 8
Tip: Minus 6.5
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- alike
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- son_of_a_punt
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Looking ahead to the 2nd round of games:
Match: Ireland v Spain (BEST BET)
Pick: Ireland -4.5 (bet.co.za)
Match: Argentina v Samoa
Pick: Argentina +3.5 @1.90 (bet.co.za)
Match: Scotland v Wales
Pick: Scotland -13.5 @1.90 (bet.co.za)
Not sure many of you are awake to see this.. but for those who are, good luck! Will post again tomorrow afternoon for our day 2 picks.
P.S For those that watched #TheHandicap, what a rollercoaster that NZ v Wales game was! We tipped a cheeky NZ -35.5 combined with an under 47.5 match points... Final score was New Zealand 47 - Wales 0... so it was a nice way to end round 1 with a double boom.
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- Kirky
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Lads, between you and Ruggabugga I've gotta get the next few rounds in.son_of_a_punt wrote: Unbelievable start to the 7s calling 5/6 of the picks posted on the forum! But most importantly all 3 of our best bets won, so we hope everyone managed to get on those, as then you will be sitting nicely in the green zone.
You guys are absolutely brilliant, I really hope you enjoy Super Rugby as much as you do the 7's.
For the first time in yonks, I've woken to a betting account balance that made my eyes pop (after my regular Friday afternoon session with the mates, I go doodoos early ) so never watched any of the games but did have a bunch off accas - and I included London Irish to win @ 5.60 in a few
Next time I'm in Barcelona, the steaks are on me
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- southpaw
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I’m not a big sevens punter so didn’t back your individual game tips but lazily followed the Acca in Brents newsletter. So a thanks to you all there.
Please post another acca when odds are up!
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- RuggaBugga
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Some absolute beauties priced up for first 8 tomorrow
Canada -6.5 vs Spain
The Canooks can top the pool but have to get a better points differential than France do against Irelend. Canada know they wont get a better chance to go straight into the Semi's in their lives so this will be ALL IN from them. They should smash this handicap with the extra motivation
Argentina +19.5 vs FIji
THIS IS PURE GOLD!!! Argentina have covered 6 of the last 6 handicaps against Fiji with the highest margin of defeat of 14 points. The Argies could even top the pool if they beat Fiji. Fiji are not the best at the wide conversions so this is my bet of the round. Come on your Argies!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- southpaw
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Coaches talking up an expansive game today so hopefully sticks to the plan.
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- son_of_a_punt
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Match: Canada vs Spain (BEST BET)
Pick: Canda -5.5 @1.90 (bet.co.za)
Match: France vs Ireland (BEST BET)
Pick: France -4.5 @1.80 (bwin or kieth betXchange)
Match: Australia vs Samoa
Pick: Samoa +17.5 @1.85 (ESBN)
Match: Fiji vs Argentina (BEST BET)
Pick: Argentina +19.5 @1.77 (ESBN)
Match: USA vs Wales
Pick: USA -18.5 @1.80 (around the board)
We have indicated our best bets of the round, so we suggest to only take those. Note for the France -5.5, this becomes incredibly juicy if Canada beat Spain by more than 4 points, so if that happens maybe it is worth doubling down.
We don't normally do accumulators, but after that 11/1 accumulator landed in round 1, we've decided to treat ourselves to a cheeky acca.
France -5.5 @1.90
Samoa +16.5 @1.90
Argentina +18.5 @1.85
USA -20.5 @1.90
Total odds @ 12.68
Good luck out there gents! Will post further tips later for the knockout stages. Happy punting
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- bradie82
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Over 36.5 @ 1.90
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- Brad Breath
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The books are crying into their pints!!
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- son_of_a_punt
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Out of the 11 tips we posted on the forum we got 10 correct. However, most importantly we got 100% of our best bets correct with 6/6.
For those risk seeking gents out there - we hope you got on our 4-fold accumulator @ odds of 12.68! It was never in doubt, and it’s always a great feeling to land an accumulator. What a thrill. Second of the weekend nogal.
The bookies have been absolutely bullied this weekend by all of us. We’ve been waiting patiently for the caps to come out for the knockout stages, but they’re still not out. So we’re pretty happy to call it a very successful tournament and hit the hay.
Good night gents. Happy punting
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- Kirky
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Well done guys, you really knocked it out the park.son_of_a_punt wrote: Just another day at the office for a 7s tournament!
The bookies have been absolutely bullied this weekend by all of us. We’ve been waiting patiently for the caps to come out for the knockout stages, but they’re still not out. So we’re pretty happy to call it a very successful tournament and hit the hay.
Different morning this morning for me though - back to form
Time I got onboard yesterday, Canada was at -7.5 and Samoa had gone to +14.5, and one or the other was in every one of my accas. So a great big zero for me
But that's the price of my greed, no ?
Overall however, my London Irish win multiple of 5.60 yesterday on top of your tips, left me well in the green with my best weekend in recent memory. So thanks and please keep your tips flowing.
Well done again and 'Ole' Barcelona
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- joedewet
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- RuggaBugga
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Then taking my Frenchies +12.5 in the final and have that 10/1 outright punt still pending. Come on Les Bleus
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- Tarka
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- Brad Breath
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Going with the theory Sarries boys will have their minds elsewhere - plus their London rivals will have a bit more motivation than usual.
Quins are a difficult team to trust though, hence modest stake.
And interest punt on Care 1st try @ 17
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- son_of_a_punt
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