Las Vegas 7's

Overview

We are licking our lips ahead of the 7s this weekend, hoping to improve on the 85% strike rate we have achieved on the previous tournaments this series!

The venue this weekend is the Dignity Health Sports Park in Los Angeles, a pitch made out of Bandera Bermuda Grass, which is a fast paced turf great for running rugby. The weather forecast looks great: sun, a light breeze and no rain predicted (for Saturday at least).

The best news of all is that the tournament is back to the old format. The top two teams from each pool will progress to the quarter-finals. What a time to be alive, that means more 7s games. Let’s have a look at the pools.

Pool A

Teams: Fiji, Argentina, France and South Korea.

Fiji are the in-form team after taking gold at the Sydney 7s earlier this month. They have named a very similar squad with only two changes, and as always they are going to be hard to beat. Argentina are a team that loves to stick around and with the return of Lautaro Velez we are going to be looking out for them on the pluses. France had a pretty average showing in Sydney, but still have a very well-rounded team for the weekend with the only big name missing out being Lakafia. South Korea are the final team making up this pool, and wow it is a bad weekend to be a South Korean 7s player. This group could easily come down to points difference and thus we are expecting Fiji, France and Argentina to put some cricket scores on poor South Korea. Hopefully the minuses aren’t too high so that we can jump aboard those #choochoo.

Pool B

Teams: South Africa, Ireland, Canada and Kenya.

South Africa have brought in Ryan Oosthuizen, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Mfundo Ndhlovu in replacement for Chris Dry, Geduld and Davids. They should have no problem topping this pool. Ireland retain 12/13 players from their squad in Sydney, which includes two players in the top 3 DHL impact players of the series (Terry Kennedy 1st & Jordan Conroy 3rd). They have been very impressive so far this series. Canada finally have their speedster back in the form of Justin Douglas, but this comes at the cost of busty forward Andrew Coe who got injured in Sydney. Kenya’s coach, Paul Feeny, has come out publicly stating that Kenya have been changing their structure and have been focusing on contact training and tackle techniques. If these men have learnt how to tackle during the break then they could be a force to be reckoned with. Especially since they now have Oscar Ouma, Samuel Oliech, Daniel Sikuta and Oscar Dennis back in the fray. This is a really tough pool to call, hopefully the bookies don’t price the games up correctly.

Pool C

USA, Australia, Samoa and Scotland

The bookies opened USA very short for this tournament as it’s their home tournament. Maddy Hughes is back after a little niggle in Sydney and the speed merchants, Isles and Baker, are waiting eagerly to get their 200th tries (which I’m sure won’t take them longer than 1 game!). The Aussies have gone with a lot of pace in their squad for this tournament and will be eager to upset the hosts and top pool C. Would make for fantastic viewing if playmakers Holland & Longbottom can release 'Pocket Rocket' Rod Davies & Trae 'Quadzilla' Williams. Jamie Farndale and Kyle Rowe are back for Scotland so that’s a massive boost for them. Samoa… well we’re never sure which Samoan side is going to rock up (also no team news out at this stage, so we literally don’t know which team is going to pitch up).

Pool D

NZ, England, Wales, Spain

NZ will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing showing in Sydney. Big man Joe Ravouvou is back for them and we see them being difficult to beat this weekend. England look depleted yet again. With the injury of Lindsay Hague – their best player this series – we think they’ll struggle. Other notable absentees are Will Muir and Richard de Carpentier. Wales and Spain…well they’re both a pile of shit to be honest. Hard to see them impacting Pool D whatsoever. They’re basically just taking up the extra space. However, Spain do have Alejandro Alonso back after 6 months of injury, so maybe he can be the pace Spain very very very badly need. Still waiting on the Welsh team news.

Outright Markets

Thanks @BrentGraham for the outrights. If the games go according to the books; the semi-finals are set to be Fiji v USA and SA v NZ. The Kiwis look like the smart play at 4/1 for the tournament. In terms of a dark horse, you can probably throw some beer money on Kenya at 67/1. They could upset USA in the quarter-finals if the pressure proves too much for the hosts, and then they can match the physicality of the Fijians in the semi-finals.

As far as the pools go, the smart play is the Kiwis again at 0.44/1 to top pool D. This is effectively betting on them to beat England at those odds, which one would think is a 'sure thing'.

But as you all know - we prefer to invest the majority of our money into the individuals games, as this is where the real money is made. And hopefully that's no different this weekend. We will be posting our picks on the forum and on our twitter page as soon as the handicaps come out.

Australia at $3.75 to win their pool looks like overs to me. Should be closer to $2.50 IMO.

The markets came out this morning and after much deliberation and analysis we have identified our plays for the first round of the 7s!

Game: England vs Spain
Pick: Spain +21.5
Logic: We are aware that Spain have not covered this cap in their last three against England. However, England have picked a number of injuries throughout this series, and they have just recently lost Ollie Lindsay-Hague who has been their best player this series. Spain do play very boring rugby which goes side-to-side, but we are hoping they can hold onto the pill for long enough and grab 1/2 tries. which would secure this bet.

Game: Argentina vs France
Pick: Argentina +5.5
Logic: These two teams generally trade blow for blow. In games like these we always favour the plus. Argentina have Velez returning to the team who will make a world of difference. France struggled with their restarts in Sydney, and if they don't hit their restarts they are pretty vulnerable. It's hard to bet against the frogs, but we think it is the right play here. Hoping Argentina can stick around like they usually manage to do.

Game: Ireland v Canada
Pick: Ireland +5.5
Logic: Again these are two teams that go blow for blow, which is why we like the plus. Ireland have Tyrone Kennedy and Jordan Conroy who can have a huge impact on a game, whereas Canada don't really have that much flare. They do have Justin Douglas, but he is not going to be up to his usual standard since it is first game back from a long term injury. Fancy Ireland to even snatch a win here.

Game: SA v Kenya
Two Picks: Kenya +12.5 | AND | Over 35.5 points in the match
Logic: Kenya have covered the +12.5 cap against SA in their last 3 encounters. Kenya also have a wealth of experienced players back and have been performing well this series, while SA are strong too, but will miss Geduld for sure. The weather in LA is looking perfect for running rugby and tries. SA have the speed to burn while Kenya have the strength to bust tackles and create something from nothing.


Conclusion:
Our three best bets are Argentina +5.5, Ireland +5.5 and over 35.5 points in SA v Kenya game.

We will be posting tips throughout the weekend on our twitter account. We think there could be big value in the 2nd and 3rd round of games.

Happy punting!

The All Blacks Sevens team is;

Caleb Clarke
Sam Dickson
Andrew Knewstubb
Ngarohi McGarvey-Black
Tim Mikkelson
Sione Molia
Etene Nanai-Seturo
Tone Ng Shiu
Amanaki Nicole
Joe Ravouvou
Akuila Rokoisoa
William Warbrick
Joe Webber

This is the best All Black Sevens Team to play the 2019/ 2020 HSBC World Series. Expecting something special from big man and flying fijian Joe Ravouvou. Also expecting drafted Blues player Caleb Clarke to show big improvement after his return to sevens in Sydney. Add Mickelson's Captaincy in his 90th tournament, a chance to lock down the world series and prime position for Tokyo Olympics Team, there is a lot to play for. Add in the easy pool NZ has drawn in the Pool Play, AB's should be equal favourites, but they are not. Paying 5-1 TAB NZ to win Los Angeles Sevens making for a VALUE BET.

CHEERS 3P


PS GOOD LUCK TO SON_OF_A_PUNT. KEEP THE HOTTEST STREAK EVER ALIVE

Guys stupid question, are we back to the normal 7's format with quarter Finals? If i have missed it sorry.

kt6747 wrote: Guys stupid question, are we back to the normal 7's format with quarter Finals? If i have missed it sorry.

The Big Orange has banned coronavirus from the states so we go back to the old format - Top two sides go through.

The Vann wrote:

kt6747 wrote: Guys stupid question, are we back to the normal 7's format with quarter Finals? If i have missed it sorry.

The Big Orange has banned coronavirus from the states so we go back to the old format - Top two sides go through.

Lol, Thanks Vann.

Thanks lads. I’m not a big sevens punter but the NZ squad 3peat posted looked decent and I’m joining as well -

NZ outright 4/1 sunbet

Notably veteran Chris Dry is back in Blitzbok, together with Werner Kok will give Boks some defensive power.

Where are all the other big name Blitzboks in an Olympic Year? I am guessing there is no $ in Blitzbok Rugby if Senatla and Specman are happy scoring no tries in Super Rugby. Afrika is there, but seems to have a lost more than a yard of pace. There is a real lack of tournament experience in this squad, so it hard to say how they will go, could even lose to Kenya in the opening round!? Cheers 3P


The REVISED BLITZBOK SEVENS squad for the HSBC LOS ANGELES SEVENS:

1. Angelo Davids (four tournaments, 20 matches; 65 points, 13 tries)

2. Ryan Oosthuizen (19 tournaments, 95 matches; 95 points, 19 tries)

3. Chris Dry (72 tournaments, 363 matches; 480 points, 96 tries)

4. Sako Makata (seven tournaments, 26 matches; 10 points, two tries)

5. Werner Kok (49 tournaments, 249 matches; 530 points, 106 tries)

6. JC Pretorius (nine tournaments, 48 matches, 110 points, 22 tries)

7. Branco du Preez (73 tournaments, 369 matches; 1316 points, 94 tries, 420 conversions, 1 penalty, 1 drop goal)

8. Selvyn Davids (18 tournaments, 90 matches; 372 points, 39 tries, 87 conversions, 1 penalty)

9. Kurt-Lee Arendse (six tournaments, 25 matches; 55 points, 11 tries)

10. Cecil Afrika (64 tournaments, 333 matches; 1445 points, 176 tries, 281 conversions, 1 penalty)

11. Muller du Plessis (12 tournaments, 51 matches; 170 points, 34 tries)

12. Stedman Gans (captain; 20 tournaments, 94 matches; 140 points, 28 tries)

13. Mfundo Ndhlovu (four tournaments, 17 matches; 25 points, five tries) – official reserve

son-of-a punt "our three best bets are Argentina +5.5, Ireland +5.5 and over 35.5 points in SA v Kenya game".

the lines for these games are currently Argentina +4.5 Ireland +4.5 and over 35.5 SA v Kenya

anyone who has been following the hsbc world series here or on twitter will know the the barcelona boys are red hot on their sevens picks.

i am cherry picking their selections and going with Argentina to win @ $2.63 tab nz. the risk/ reward justifys the outright play for me as +5.5 is very different to +4.5. also Argies love to get one over the French who were sluggish in Sydney.

i am upgrading my call on NZ to win tournament @ 5-1 (widely available) from Value Bet to Super Value Bet. easy pool plus weaker SA probable semi-final. Probable Fiji Final paying 5-1!!!!

Speculative value play, I like Kenya v SA paying $4.70. Cheers & Good Luck 3P

Well done Barcelona Boys, 100%, four from four round one Los Angeles Sevens
The Hot Streak is ALIVE.

NZ -20.5 v spain

Arg -34.5 v South Korea
France +14.5 v Fiji
Kenya +3.5 v Ireland

Nz -8.5 v eng

son_of_a_punt wrote: Nz -8.5 v eng

Another Great Call, Hard to Believe line is so low! Cheers 3P

Spain -5.5 v wales

Fiji -10.5 v arg (slightly weaker). Love lower line of fiji -4.5

SA v Ireland Under 41.5 match points

quite greasy out there!

Great observation on greasy conditions by Barcelona Boys late on first day in LA. Good teams dropping the ball. Came home on unders on all of last three games ;- ) Please advise if you think that will apply to tomorrows late games.

Limited options available on tab nz so far.

Betting
Fiji 7s
(-9.5)
Points Start
Fiji 7s v England 7s
@ 1.87 Cheers 3P

Early Sunday LA bets:

Arg v Wales --> Under 42.5 points

Korea v Spain --> Korea +25.5 ; Under 46.5 points (two separate bets)

Aus v ireland --> Aus -7.5

son_of_a_punt wrote: Early Sunday LA bets:

Arg v Wales --> Under 42.5 points

Korea v Spain --> Korea +25.5 ; Under 46.5 points (two separate bets)

Aus v ireland --> Aus -7.5

4 Bets. Only one I can find across my seven books at these points being Korea plus 25.5 so I only take that one. Seriously need to find a cheap bulk scants supplier

Canada +8.5 v arg

The Vann wrote:

son_of_a_punt wrote: Early Sunday LA bets:

Arg v Wales --> Under 42.5 points

Korea v Spain --> Korea +25.5 ; Under 46.5 points (two separate bets)

Aus v ireland --> Aus -7.5

4 Bets. Only one I can find across my seven books at these points being Korea plus 25.5 so I only take that one. Seriously need to find a cheap bulk scants supplier

I have similar problems so you could perhaps try using the spreads. For instance I bought Aus supremacy at 9 (27 points profit) and sold total points S Korea v Spain at 44 (18 points profit).