Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
- Brent Graham
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3 years 10 months ago #1
by Brent Graham
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Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3 was created by Brent Graham
The bookies are pretty quick with their caps so no time for a video
Been a great tournament so far and here are my projected caps
Blues -9.5 v Highlanders
Crusaders -11.5 v Chiefs
Been a great tournament so far and here are my projected caps
Blues -9.5 v Highlanders
Crusaders -11.5 v Chiefs
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- bradie82
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3 years 10 months ago #2
by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Good tournament so far and there seems to be a pattern after 4 games so will keep an eye on those few next week
- First half is the highest scoring half in the 4 games : might be because of the 3 months break and players not physically ready yet
- Drop goal scored in 3 games so far and with a missed one on the last one - looking at the odds available, this is worth a shot as 3p did this weekend
- Under tries : all games were set with cut at 6.5/7.5 and so far, 4 under
- Penalties : this has been my main focus so far with the number of successful penalties and the early penalty bet. I will keep looking at those as I think this pattern will keep going ( was actually surprised by the number of penalties taken by Canes today as historically not a team attempting)
Have a good week all
- First half is the highest scoring half in the 4 games : might be because of the 3 months break and players not physically ready yet
- Drop goal scored in 3 games so far and with a missed one on the last one - looking at the odds available, this is worth a shot as 3p did this weekend
- Under tries : all games were set with cut at 6.5/7.5 and so far, 4 under
- Penalties : this has been my main focus so far with the number of successful penalties and the early penalty bet. I will keep looking at those as I think this pattern will keep going ( was actually surprised by the number of penalties taken by Canes today as historically not a team attempting)
Have a good week all
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3 years 10 months ago #3
by Brent Graham
Have not been watching markets today but see GGG are
Blues -11.5
Crusaders -13.5
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Brent Graham wrote: The bookies are pretty quick with their caps so no time for a video
Been a great tournament so far and here are my projected caps
Blues -9.5 v Highlanders
Crusaders -11.5 v Chiefs
Have not been watching markets today but see GGG are
Blues -11.5
Crusaders -13.5
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3 years 10 months ago - 3 years 10 months ago #4
by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Bookie in NZ opens at better odds
GGG BG TAB NZ
Blues -11.5 -9.5 -9.5
Crusaders -13.5 -11.5 - 7.5
Early bet on Crusaders @ -7.5 Looks like Gatland has not enough cattle in the tight five to match Saders @ home.
GGG BG TAB NZ
Blues -11.5 -9.5 -9.5
Crusaders -13.5 -11.5 - 7.5
Early bet on Crusaders @ -7.5 Looks like Gatland has not enough cattle in the tight five to match Saders @ home.
Last edit: 3 years 10 months ago by threepeat. Reason: typo
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3 years 10 months ago #5
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Agree 3P - cant see the -7.5 lasting
Sunbet go
Blues -9.5
Crusaders -8.5
I think the -8.5 is as good a minus as SA punters are going to see
Sunbet go
Blues -9.5
Crusaders -8.5
I think the -8.5 is as good a minus as SA punters are going to see
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- threepeat
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3 years 10 months ago #6
by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
BG your Sader phrophecy of a moving margin has already happened. Line @ TAB NZ is now -8.5. I expect it to move further out after team announcements. No word on Sam Cane lower back injury. At this stage he cannot make better than the bench.
In the other game I note that there is a 40% chance of showers for Auckland in the long range forcast
That BB DG set up a fantastic punting weekend. Trust there was a BG/DG bet
Cheers 3P
In the other game I note that there is a 40% chance of showers for Auckland in the long range forcast
That BB DG set up a fantastic punting weekend. Trust there was a BG/DG bet
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3 years 10 months ago #7
by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
"The poor old Chiefs looked capable of being crowned Super Rugby champions when footy first kicked off for the year. But with no Atu Moli on deck and no Michael Allardice or Angus Ta’avao, they now look pretty ordinary indeed."
$$$ have come for the Saders. Line @ TAB NZ now -10.5 @ $1.87 Cheers 3P Last weekends roll continues!
$$$ have come for the Saders. Line @ TAB NZ now -10.5 @ $1.87 Cheers 3P Last weekends roll continues!
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3 years 10 months ago #8
by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
More bad luck for the wounded Chiefs
Luke Jacobsen fractured a hand during the Chiefs’ loss to the Blues over the weekend and while the recovery time for the injury is 5 to 6 weeks, the Chiefs are taking a cautious approach and don’t expect to get any more minute out of the young flanker this season.
Last nail in the coffin for Gatlin. Saders will not give away a red card, leaving Chiefs with no chance in Christchurch. Early bets looking "Sweet As". Cheers 3P
Luke Jacobsen fractured a hand during the Chiefs’ loss to the Blues over the weekend and while the recovery time for the injury is 5 to 6 weeks, the Chiefs are taking a cautious approach and don’t expect to get any more minute out of the young flanker this season.
Last nail in the coffin for Gatlin. Saders will not give away a red card, leaving Chiefs with no chance in Christchurch. Early bets looking "Sweet As". Cheers 3P
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3 years 10 months ago #9
by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
I’ve had two cracking weekends with eight of my bets coming in, two of which were for first try scorer (Ash Dixon + Hoskins Sotutu), thanks Couch 
So, having called 4 games virtually spot-on (Lucky Mike on Superbru), I’m going to stick my neck out a bit and venture my opinion.
I’m in full agreement with the forum, but I think the bookies are underestimating the Highlanders – they’re better than the Chiefs and Canes are, and they’ll give the Blues a run for their money.
I also think Gatland has spent too long up north, and everyone is overestimating his ability to get wins – Chiefs will finish last in Aotearoa, and the Saders are going to hurt them (maybe badly) this weekend.
My early best bet therefore is Blues 1-12 (2.85), onto Crusaders 13+ (2.10) at combined odds of 5.99. This on top of a bunch of Crusaders -8.5.
Licking my lips for any gems the forum advises, and Couch’s hooker tips to play the try scorer markets too, although I do expect the Saders 1st try from their backline.
Cheers guys
long may this run continue, and happy punting
So, having called 4 games virtually spot-on (Lucky Mike on Superbru), I’m going to stick my neck out a bit and venture my opinion.
I’m in full agreement with the forum, but I think the bookies are underestimating the Highlanders – they’re better than the Chiefs and Canes are, and they’ll give the Blues a run for their money.
I also think Gatland has spent too long up north, and everyone is overestimating his ability to get wins – Chiefs will finish last in Aotearoa, and the Saders are going to hurt them (maybe badly) this weekend.
My early best bet therefore is Blues 1-12 (2.85), onto Crusaders 13+ (2.10) at combined odds of 5.99. This on top of a bunch of Crusaders -8.5.
Licking my lips for any gems the forum advises, and Couch’s hooker tips to play the try scorer markets too, although I do expect the Saders 1st try from their backline.
Cheers guys
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3 years 10 months ago - 3 years 10 months ago #10
by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Wow, those comments of mine were like spraying a fire-extinguisher on a braai 
Sorry everyone, didn't mean to put out the fire
Sorry everyone, didn't mean to put out the fire
Last edit: 3 years 10 months ago by Kirky.
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- Brent Graham
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3 years 10 months ago #11
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Kirky I think the silence is a reflection that the bookies have pruved these handicaps up pretty well - hopefully we get some action when the points lines come out
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- mackem
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3 years 10 months ago #12
by mackem
twitter: @goodforthegame
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Couch's preview and plays for Blues v Highlanders
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...betting-preview.html
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...betting-preview.html
twitter: @goodforthegame
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3 years 10 months ago - 3 years 10 months ago #13
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Great chatting with the lads on THE HANDICAP tonight - they have me looking forward to the Aussie Conference
and here is the show as a Podcast
and here is the show as a Podcast
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Last edit: 3 years 10 months ago by Brent Graham. Reason: add link
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3 years 10 months ago #14
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
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3 years 10 months ago #15
by mackem
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Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Crusaders v Chiefs preview, Brent going Saders -11.5 seems to be general price now
www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-202...betting-preview.html
www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-202...betting-preview.html
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3 years 10 months ago #16
by mackem
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Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
and here are Couch's plays for Saders v Chiefs
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...betting-preview.html
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...betting-preview.html
twitter: @goodforthegame
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3 years 10 months ago - 3 years 10 months ago #17
by son_of_a_punt
Twitter: son_of_a_punt | Time to win some beer money
Replied by son_of_a_punt on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Bookies have priced up well this weekend! (Besides the early saders -6.5 blip that is!)
But a bet from us for Blues v Landers:
Under 6.5 tries at 8/11 (WSB)
Thanks to Ruan for spotting it!
But a bet from us for Blues v Landers:
Under 6.5 tries at 8/11 (WSB)
Thanks to Ruan for spotting it!
Twitter: son_of_a_punt | Time to win some beer money
Last edit: 3 years 10 months ago by son_of_a_punt. Reason: giving credit
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3 years 10 months ago #18
by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
2 bets for tomorrow morning game
Blues to win, under 6.5 tries & under 55 points @ 2.50
A penalty scored in the first 15 min @ 1.80
Both available on William Hill on the YourOdss section
Blues to win, under 6.5 tries & under 55 points @ 2.50
A penalty scored in the first 15 min @ 1.80
Both available on William Hill on the YourOdss section
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3 years 10 months ago #19
by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Highlanders over 7.5 1st half points @ 17/20
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3 years 10 months ago #20
by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Auckland weather very unpredictable at the moment including thunderstorms and near by tornado. Latest info does however suggest evening rainfall will be only .6mm if any.
Betting Blues OVER 27.5 @ $1.83 Total points in local market is unders of 45.5
Betting the newsletter double with extra meat.
2 LEG MULTI @ 2.83
Blues (-9.5) @ 1.67 Blues v Highlanders Crusaders (-9.5) @ 1.70 Crusaders v Chiefs, combined odds $2.83
Adding some Sevu Reece top try scorer for tournament @ $7 tab nz. Cheers 3P
Betting Blues OVER 27.5 @ $1.83 Total points in local market is unders of 45.5
Betting the newsletter double with extra meat.
2 LEG MULTI @ 2.83
Blues (-9.5) @ 1.67 Blues v Highlanders Crusaders (-9.5) @ 1.70 Crusaders v Chiefs, combined odds $2.83
Adding some Sevu Reece top try scorer for tournament @ $7 tab nz. Cheers 3P
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3 years 10 months ago #21
by hanrick
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Under 5.5 total tries at 1.14/1 in Blues vs Highlanders game
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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3 years 10 months ago #22
by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Double: Blues win & Crusaders -9 @ 2.38
Followed SOAP yesterday with under 6.5 total tries @ 1.80
Dabble also on Bradie's pen within 15 min @ 1.80
Followed SOAP yesterday with under 6.5 total tries @ 1.80
Dabble also on Bradie's pen within 15 min @ 1.80
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3 years 10 months ago #23
by Pierrebal
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Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Over 44 points, just too low not to have a go!
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- Brent Graham
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3 years 10 months ago #24
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Nice one Pierrbal, I was hovering over it when a mate in Auckland messaged to say it was still raining - that was just enough to put me off
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3 years 10 months ago #25
by Zambusta
Replied by Zambusta on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Just spotted this on William Hill...I like it.
Crusaders To Win, Sevu Reece & Sean Wainui Both To Score A Try @6
Crusaders To Win, Sevu Reece & Sean Wainui Both To Score A Try @6
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3 years 10 months ago #26
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
A bit annoyed at missing the u52.5 early, woke up a slit second too late
Like Crusaders try handicap 17/20 at the break
Like Crusaders try handicap 17/20 at the break
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3 years 10 months ago #27
by Pierrebal
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Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Crusaders over 23.5 HT 8/10
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3 years 10 months ago #28
by Zambusta
2/3 and Sevu Reece makes two try assists...close.
Replied by Zambusta on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
Zambusta wrote: Just spotted this on William Hill...I like it.
Crusaders To Win, Sevu Reece & Sean Wainui Both To Score A Try @6
2/3 and Sevu Reece makes two try assists...close.
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- Brent Graham
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3 years 10 months ago #29
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Aotearoa week 3
I thought os this bet when Reece was subbed, unlucky, in drier conditions Reece scores I reckon
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