Tennis : Wimbledon + Other

Two weeks in July - Strawberries and Cream What Ho. Have the punting Gods smiled on us? Are we going to make a fortune? From my point of view - absolutely not on the out rights.
Looking at the draw quarters I see Djokovic gets "sick note"Anderson in the second round with probably Fucsovics being the only other player half decent on grass. The draw is even better for Djokovic as the other half kicks off with No 2 seed Mevedev playing Struff who beat him on grass a few weeks ago. No surprise Djokovic is 8/10. My three outside favorites to make the final were Zverev, Berrettini and Auger-Aliassimo - all in the same quarter. Only adding one to my A-A pick of a few weeks ago.

Out Rights
e/w
Auger-Aliassimo @ 100/1
adding to Win the bottom quarter ie The Medvedev/Federer bracket
Norrie @ 18/1

Seppi + Agut + Anderson @2.08

Murray vs Basilashvili

Murray is playing singles at Wimbledon for the first time since 2017. Since then he has played sparingly due to hip problems, with occasional success in both singles and doubles but mostly just struggling.
He has competed in only four singles tournaments this season, including just one since February. At Queen’s Club he beat Benoit Paire 6-3, 6-2, then lost to eventual champion Matteo Berrettini 6-3, 6-3.

Basilashvili defeated Roger Federer in Dubai and went on to take the title. He's had a very good year with titles in Doha and Munich and is now coming from a semifinal in Halle.
Obviously Murray isn’t the same player now, and it’s hard to see him surviving a best-of-five test against an opponent of Basilashvili’s quality.

Bet: Basilashvili @1.90

Griekspoor vs Alexander Zverev

These are two tall players who can send an impressive number of winning serves.
Recently, Zverev had 20 aces against Humbert in Halle.
Griekspoor played in qualies and had 19 aces in a 3-setter, 5 aces in a quick 6-1 6-0 game and 16 aces in the final qualification game.

The surface is fast at Wimbledon, especially in the first few days when the grass is not worn out.

Bet: Over 20.5 aces @1.83

Not taking a big run at anything in the first round as I tend to get burnt but we need to throw a beer or two at something.
Two names which may be a little shaky. Federer looked poor on his favorite surface last time out and Medvedev has been poor on grass until his recent run in Spain. Mannarino made the semi's on grass in Spain and Struff beat Medvedev on grass two weeks ago.

Federer v Mannarino
Mannarino @ 17/4
Struff v Medvedev
Struff @ 19/4

Six pack each on the above and a beer on the underdog double
Mannarino/Struff @ 29/1

Ah, Vann, I'm against you here.

Medvedev vs Struff
Querrey vs Careno Busta

Medvedev was very bad on clay until this year, when he probably decided to play and reached the quarter-finals at Roland Garros.
He then lost on grass to Struff, a surface where again he hadn't been too successful, only for him to win the next grass tournament in Mallorca.
It looks like Medvedev is bent on busting the myths about him, so I'll take him to win this match, which should also be a revenge against Struff.

Querrey shines for the few weeks a year that the ATP tour finds its way to grass. He is a big serving player who has just the kind of game designed to work well when a big first serve can do the most damage. Querrey has been strong on the lawns in 2021. He made the semifinals in Stuttgart and the final in Mallorca just a few days ago (he lost to Medvedev).
Pablo Carreno Busta has had a good season so far. While his game is more tailored to hard courts, his only title this year came on the clay courts of Marbella. He hasn't been successful on grass, but he played well enough in Mallorca to earn a spot in the semifinals.

The courts aren’t yet chewed up, and with the surface still slippery, Carreno Busta’s athleticism will be neutralized, since players are still sliding and falling with some frequency.

Medvedev + Querrey @2.05

Djokovic vs Anderson

Kevin Anderson beat Barrios Vera in the first round in four long sets (6-7 6-4 6-4 7-6), firing 41 aces, with only one double fault and two break opportunities that he saved.
Djokovic served 25 aces in his first round match.

I think we will have plenty of aces to cover these totals.

Bet 1: Anderson Over 18.5 aces @1.72
Bet 2: Total Aces Over 27.5 @1.83

Quill wrote: Djokovic vs Anderson

Kevin Anderson beat Barrios Vera in the first round in four long sets (6-7 6-4 6-4 7-6), firing 41 aces, with only one double fault and two break opportunities that he saved.
Djokovic served 25 aces in his first round match.

I think we will have plenty of aces to cover these totals.

Bet 1: Anderson Over 18.5 aces @1.72
Bet 2: Total Aces Over 27.5 @1.83

Thanks Quill, was looking for these markets at our bookies but no luck. Does anyone know if SA bookies offer Total Aces markets?

Tiafoe vs Pospisil

Tiafoe had probably the biggest win of his career on Monday, with a shocking straight-set upset of No. 3 seed and French Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tiafoe has been playing some impressive grass-court tennis in the past few weeks, including a win at the Nottingham Challenger.

Vasek Pospisil took out world No. 100 Roberto Carballes Baena, a clay-courter whose ranking has been hovering in the triple-digits since 2020.
Expect Pospisil to keep it competitive, but with Tiafoe’s confidence and level the American should find his way to the third round.

Bet: Tiafoe @1.79

Adding Fucsovics to beat Vesely @1.56 for a nice double

Tiafoe + Fucsovics @2.79

Murray vs Otte

Otte has a big serve and forehand, but does not move particularly well. Murray won’t have to play long points and the return of serve has always been one of the best parts of his game. Even if Otte is serving well, he is going to see a ton of balls come back in play.

Murray impressed on his way to a two-set and 5-0 lead against Nikoloz Basilashvili, but then he collapsed losing seven games in a row. Murray righted the ship in the fourth set for a 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 win.

Otte went to 13-12 in the fifth against Arthur Rinderknech and had to finish the marathon on Tuesday instead of Monday.
Murray should have enough left in the tank to overcome Otte, especially with the crowd behind him.

Bet 1: Murray -2.5 sets @3.12
Bet 2: Murray -4.5 games @1.81

Korda + Agut + Rublev + Murray @2.15

Harris v Rublev
Looks like Harris is in reasonable shape. If he can stay injury free for two hours he is going to give Rublev all kinds of problems so going for

Over 3.5 Sets @ 17/20

Cilic + Norrie + Nishikori @2.15

Chardy vs Ivashka

Chardy produced his best performance in recent months to knock out the reigning ATP Dubai champion and Australian Open semifinalist Aslan Karatsev in the first round of Wimbledon. The big-serving Frenchman fired 18 aces and held onto all his service games during this superb win, 7-6 7-6 6-3.
Ivashka has won only 13 matches on grass so far in his career, but eight of those wins have come in the last four weeks alone, which earned him a quarterfinal appearance in Eastbourne last week and main draw appearances in Stuttgart and Halle.

I think this match will be a longer one.

Bet: Over 40.5 games @1.91

Kyrgios vs Mager
Aliassime vs Ymer

Kyrgios loves it at Wimbledon. He told us, we saw him play and moreover, he showed it in the first round that he wants it.
He beat Humbert in 5 long sets again, 5 months after another tennis marathon between the two players at the Australian Open where Kyrgios won also in 5 long sets.

Next one up for Kyrgios is Mager, who hasn't played much on grass in his career. In the first round Mager beat another player who doesn't play on grass, Londero.

Aliassime made easy work of the clay-court specialist Thiago Monteiro in the first round of Wimbledon. The Canadian won 87% of his first-serve points, created 13 breakpoint chances, and did not expose a breakpoint chance on his serve in the entire match, 6-3 6-3 6-3.
Ymer made the most of Tsonga's fitness problems and poor form to win a closely contested five-setter on Wednesday.

Aliassime is on Vann's list of possible tournament winners. Nuff said.

Bet 1: Kyrgios 3-0 @2.05
Bet 2: Aliassime 3-0 @1.83

Double, both to win 3-0 @3.75

Rublev looks better then expected and I just don't rate Schwartzman on grass.

Rublev + Fucsovics @ 13/10

and I am impressed with what Tiafoe is showing so adding

Rublev + Fucsovics + Tiafoe @ 28/10

Evans vs Korda, I expect a long match between the two.
Over 39.5 games @ 1.88

We have the bandage bandits in the sick note derby later this evening and I think we may see a few games between injury breaks. Shapovalov has not played since the french with shoulder problems and Murray's problems are well recorded. I expect Canada to be last man staggering but the home support should keep Murray upright long enough to win a few games

Shapovalov v Murray

Over 38.5 games @ 21/20

Kyrgios to beat Aliassime @2.10

Kyrgios is happy at Wimbledon and is feeling good.

Everyone deserves a good 21st so I hope Korda gets a memorable one today. Shapavalov at 13/20 looks a lock

Korda + Shapavalov @ 23/10

Shapovalov vs Agut
Not only because Vann picked him, but I like Shapovalov to win this match. He has progressed nicely in the past couple of years and has had a good grass court season, with a semifinal at Queen's Club. Agut had a bad Wimbledon warm-up matches, and while he did make it to the fourth round now, his wins weren't too clear cut, including his apparently easy 3-0 win in the previous round, with one set 7-5 and the last set a tie-breaker, being 2-5 down in it too, and having lost his serve 5 times to a lowly ranked Koepfer.

Rublev vs Fucsovics
Fucsovics has knocked off Jannik Sinner and Diego Schwartzman, but Sinner has been struggling and Schwartzman has never been adept on grass.
Rublev is a whole different beast. He won nine of 11 sets in week one without ever being pushed to a tiebreaker. He has advanced to quarterfinals in two of the last three majors and he has every reason to make it three out of four.

During a five-week stretch in March and April, they faced each other three times and it would have been four had Fucsovics not handed Rublev a walkover in the Doha quarterfinals. The Russian won all three meetings in straight sets.
After their third meeting Fucsovics said "I hope I don't play you any more this year".

Medvedev vs Hurkacz
Medvedev came back from two sets down in an impressive effort against Cilic – the 2017 Wimbledon runner-up.

Hurkacz had been a complete disaster since triumphing at the Miami Masters, with a 1-6 record during this stretch and a six-match losing streak heading into Wimbledon. From out of nowhere, however, he did not drop a single set throughout week one, but he got favorable draws against Lorenzo Musetti and Marcos Giron before routing Alexander Bublik in impressive 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 fashion. The competition level ratchets up dramatically in the form of Medvedev, who returns too well for an opponent like Hurkacz, who has a good serve but not a great one.

Zverev vs Aliassime
Aliassime was being schooled by Kyrgios, before the Aussie got injured.
Zverev is playing very well and his powerful game will force Auger-Aliassime to really go for his shots. I don’t think he can do it with enough consistency.

Shapovalov + Rublev + Medvedev + Zverev @2.81

Muchova has a game well-suited to grass and her run to the Australian Open semifinals earlier this season has given her big match experience.
Muchova has faced three very tough opponents already who were in very good form, and aside from a slight hiccup second-set hiccup against Camila Giorgi she’s had no real issues so far.
Badosa has done most of her damage on the clay this year, but has done well to reach the fourth-round here. It hasn’t been convincing for the Spaniard, being down a break in the third-set to Magda Linette before finding her winning points.

Barty looks determined and motivated to go far here.

Barty + Muchova @2.20

Raducanu vs Tomljanovic

Raducanu has been stellar so far, having won all her matches in straight sets.
With the full support of the home crowd, she is a good bet to take here.

Raducanu @2.10

Gauff - Kerber

“Coco” Gauff is very talented and of course she has a very good chance to reach the quarter finals herself.
She also has a very good serve, however she becomes vulnerable once she is on her second serve.

Kerber is in great form and is way more experienced when it comes to Grand Slam tournaments as well as on grass.
She is on an 8-match winning streak on this surface, after winning at Bad Homburg and winning her first 3 rounds here.
She won Wimbledon 3 years ago when she beat Serena Williams in the final.
I think that Kerber will be able to take control of the rallies and will win this.

Bet: Kerber @2.08

Zverev -4.5 @1.83

Khachanov vs Shapovalov

Karen Khachanov comes into the quarterfinals off one of the most bizarre matches in Wimbledon history. The No. 25 seed was in a five-set battle with young American Sebastian Korda when the service breaks started–thirteen of them, to be precise. Korda held for 1-0, and from that moment, the two players traded service breaks in every single game until the American finally held for 8-8. There were 13 service breaks in total, six of which went against eventual winner Khachanov.
The Russian won’t have anywhere near those kinds of break opportunities against Denis Shapovalov. Unlike Korda, the Canadian has a monster first serve. He also comes into the match off an impressive straight-set victory over Roberto Bautista Agut.

Berrettini vs Auger-Aliassime

Berrettini has been in outstanding form this season and has only heated up on grass. Arguably looking like Novak Djokovic’s biggest threat to the title, he won Queen’s Club in the warm-up. Berrettini is at a different level right now. The seventh seed has been broken a grand total of two times through four rounds.

Bet 1: Shapovalov + Berrettini @1.82
Bet 2: Shapovalov -4.5 @1.83

Never been a great one for betting on any contest where friends are involved. Berrettini and Auger-Aliassime date cousins and see each other often socially.
Khachanov v Shapavalov
I kinda fancy Khachanov to give the Canadian a little rev here. As Quill mentioned above the Khachanov v Korda match was close and Korda took a set off Shapavalov at the US last year as a twenty year old. I don't think Khachanov wins but he may be enough of a nuisance for this to land

Shapavalov over 20.5 games @ 19/20

Djokovic vs Fucsovics

Fucsovics has claimed three big scalps this Wimbledon so far on the way to the Quarter Finals: Jannik Sinner in the first round, Diego Schwartzman and came from two sets to one down against Rublev, a player that has troubled Fucsovics over the last 12 months.

Fucsovics will easily be the toughest match-up that Djokovic had so far this tournament.

The Hungarian has played Djokovic twice back in 2018 losing both times, but he took a set in both matches. Even if he doesn’t take a set in this match, he is playing well enough to win enough games to cover the total games line.

Two of Djokovic’s four matches this Wimbledon have gone over this mark, and with Fucsovics likely to be his toughest test yet expect it to clear once again.
Also, I think that Fucsovics can stay close and won't be swept off the court.

Bet 1: Total games Over 28.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Fucsovics +8.5 @2.10

I like Barty and Sabalenka to win their matches tonight and also both to cover their respective -3.5 handicaps.

Kerber came out of nowhere to win a title on grass just before Wimbledon and now being on a 10 match winning run.
Barty has been building her momentum this year with titles at Yarra Valley Classic, Miami, and Stuttgart and a runner-up in Madrid.

Sabalenka had big wins against the in-form Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur.
Karolina Pliskova has cruised through her quarter without dropping a set, however she’s yet to face a top 40 opponent.

These two players met twice so far and Sabalenka won both encounters. Both of these matches were in 2018 when Pliskova was planted in the top 10, and Sabalenka was outside the top 30 as a 20-year-old on the rise.

Sabalenka has improved greatly since then, while Pliskova appears to be on the decline, having dropped out of the top ten for the first time in five years.
Pliskova hasn’t faced anyone near the power or ability of Sabalenka.

Barty vs Kerber
Ka Pliskova vs Sabalenka

Bet 1: Barty + Sabalenka @2.08
Bet 2: Barty -3.5 @1.86
Bet 3: Sabalenka -3.5 @1.90

TdF stage turning into a damp squib so tennis and golf it is.

Berrettini v Hurkacz
Berrettini has managed to get to the semi's facing only one player ranked in the top 50. That was Auger-Aliassimi in the last round which went to four sets and 42 games. Hurkacz is ranked 18th and had two ATP tour wins earlier this year in the USA. The H2H battle stands at 1-1. I believe we get a reasonably close match here and an underdog win is not entirely out of the question

Match Games over 41.5 @ 19/20

and a win double
Hurkacz/Djokovic @ 22/10

Berrettini – Hubert Hurkacz

A match between two big servers, both very tall at 1.96m and both play the same style of game, a huge first serve, very difficult to return, lightning forehands.
I expect many games and lots of aces.

Bet 1: Over 40.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Over 24.5 aces @1.83

If Hurkacz took only 3 games in that 0-6 set that he collapsed...

I hope Shapovalov will raise to the occasion. Why shouldn't he? He did make some great matches against Djokovic in the not so distant past, at the ATP Cup.

Bet: Over 32.5 games @1.90

Quill wrote: If Hurkacz took only 3 games in that 0-6 set that he collapsed...

I hope Shapovalov will raise to the occasion. Why shouldn't he? He did make some great matches against Djokovic in the not so distant past, at the ATP Cup.

Bet: Over 32.5 games @1.90

No idea what happened there?

Also have games here - over 33.5 @ evens

The Vann wrote:

Quill wrote: If Hurkacz took only 3 games in that 0-6 set that he collapsed...

I hope Shapovalov will raise to the occasion. Why shouldn't he? He did make some great matches against Djokovic in the not so distant past, at the ATP Cup.

Bet: Over 32.5 games @1.90

No idea what happened there?

Also have games here - over 33.5 @ evens

Hurkacz lost 3-6 0-6 7-6 4-6 in a match with 27 aces.

Barty vs Pliskova

These two players have met on seven occasions across their career with Barty leading 5-2, but they’ve all been very close matches. Six of the seven have gone over the 21.5 total games, including their last two matches going to three sets – Barty winning their last three encounters.

Both Barty and Pliskova’s Semi Finals went over the 21.5 total games line, and the way both players are serving at the moment it's very likely that we’ll see another long match.

Bet: Over 21.5 games @1.80

Djokovic v Berrettini

Hard to see any result other then the Djokovic win here but 2/10 is just rubbish so where do we find value. These guys met a month ago on clay in the French. It went to four sets and 42 games. I think the Berrettini serve will be more difficult to break on grass and Djokovic may need a tie breaker or two to settle this. This logic makes my bet

Match result and games
Djokovic and over 34.5 games @ 12/10

The Vann wrote: Djokovic v Berrettini

Hard to see any result other then the Djokovic win here but 2/10 is just rubbish so where do we find value. These guys met a month ago on clay in the French. It went to four sets and 42 games. I think the Berrettini serve will be more difficult to break on grass and Djokovic may need a tie breaker or two to settle this. This logic makes my bet

Match result and games
Djokovic and over 34.5 games @ 12/10

Following you here.
I also think that this won't be a straightforward win for Djokovic and we'll see more than just three quick sets.

Do I remember well that you have Berrettini as winner from early on? That's a good hedge for you then.

Djokovic has not played against a top 10 player at this tournament, and he was shaky at times, and if Shapovalov could have handled his nerves and not rush through some of his shots, he could've won at least a set. He had 11 break opportunities on Djokovic serve and converted only one.

There is also some pressure, no matter how good Djokovic is from a mental point of view. This is one of the most important matches of his career. He can level the number of Grand Slams won and be up there with Federer and Nadal at 20. He is after his calendar Grand Slam. He wants to be the best, he wants to feed his ego.
However, Djokovic lost his serve a few times at this tournament, so he is vulnerable.

Berrettini looked good at this tournament. He's been playing so well for the past three weeks, as he won at Queen's Club before this.
As we know, at Roland Garros he posed many problems to Djokovic and won a set.
So I think he is confident enough ahead of this match, and he can pose enough challenges to Djokovic and get a couple of breaks of serve. We need only two breaks for our bet.

Bet: Player Total Breaks of Serve - Berrettini Over 1.5 @2.10

Quill wrote:

The Vann wrote: Djokovic v Berrettini

Hard to see any result other then the Djokovic win here but 2/10 is just rubbish so where do we find value. These guys met a month ago on clay in the French. It went to four sets and 42 games. I think the Berrettini serve will be more difficult to break on grass and Djokovic may need a tie breaker or two to settle this. This logic makes my bet

Match result and games
Djokovic and over 34.5 games @ 12/10

Following you here.
I also think that this won't be a straightforward win for Djokovic and we'll see more than just three quick sets.

Do I remember well that you have Berrettini as winner from early on? That's a good hedge for you then.

No bet on Berrettini. He was in the same 1/8 of the draw as Auger-Aliassime. Had rather a large run at that 12/10 today so very pleased. I thought we did OK over this tournament. Well done Quill. See you at Flushing Meadows.

The Vann wrote:

Quill wrote:

The Vann wrote: Djokovic v Berrettini

Hard to see any result other then the Djokovic win here but 2/10 is just rubbish so where do we find value. These guys met a month ago on clay in the French. It went to four sets and 42 games. I think the Berrettini serve will be more difficult to break on grass and Djokovic may need a tie breaker or two to settle this. This logic makes my bet

Match result and games
Djokovic and over 34.5 games @ 12/10

Following you here.
I also think that this won't be a straightforward win for Djokovic and we'll see more than just three quick sets.

Do I remember well that you have Berrettini as winner from early on? That's a good hedge for you then.

No bet on Berrettini. He was in the same 1/8 of the draw as Auger-Aliassime. Had rather a large run at that 12/10 today so very pleased. I thought we did OK over this tournament. Well done Quill. See you at Flushing Meadows.

Yes, I think we did well here and we had a nice final day.