Vuelta a España 2022
- mackem
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 6581
- Thank you received: 939
twitter: @goodforthegame
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Outrights
Once again the two markets I would enjoy a shot on are not being offered locally. The 1-3 on teams and young riders.
I think the teams market could be worth a dip this year. By my reckoning any of the top 10 teams could win. Leaning Bahrain but hope they may lose some time in the TTT as the current 4/1 is a little short.
A team match bet for me and two cases of beer up front
Intermarche WG/Movistar @ 13/10
Top 10 finish
Geoghegan Hart @ 6/1
Buitrago @ 20/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Couch Critic
- Offline
As a rule the short sharp climbs of the Vuelta suits him well. Add the fact that there is plenty of TT km's this year and he couldn't ask for a better chance to go 4 from 4.
But of course this is Spain and the most volatile of the Grand Tours so we need to find a few higher odd runners somewhere.
Simon Yates win at 12/1
His TT has improved a lot and he should love the climbs.
The Young Rider market also catches my eye. Almeida and Evenpoel are still rather untested over 3 weeks and I reckon there is some value to be had lower down the boards.
Brandon McNulty 25/1
Buitrago 50/1
If Landismo goes flop it could be every man for himself at Bahrain whilst a complete drop-off day for Almeida could open the door for McNulty.
Lastly the Polkas.
Stabs at:
Thymen Arendsman 50/1
Higuita 50/1
Masnada 110/1
Twitter: @HDiemont
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 1
Given an incident free run I think Bike Exchange get close today so a little nibble on them
Win
Bike Exchange @ 10/1
Match Bet
Bike Exchange/Ineos @ 7/4 Main Bet
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kt6747
- Offline
- Posts: 1158
- Thank you received: 684
Top 10
Hugh Carthy @ 78/10 (WSB)
Whilst hasnt been in decent form, remember him been more than decent up the climbs on previous tours, and worth ago even if not 1st choice with Uran as probable Number 1.
Stage 1 - Bikeexchange over Ineos @ 7/4
Enjoy the race
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
To win a stage - Yes
Yates @ 16/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 2
Run-in looks a little dodgy today so maybe a little more open then betting would suggest. This fellow has beaten Ackermann and Bennett this season so is in with a chance.
e/w
Thijssen @ 12/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 3
Finish looks much safer today and is expected to be run into a headwind. Going very late could work so if you are useless at positioning and only arrive at the pointy end late you could be in business.
e/w
Groves @ 14/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
152km Today finishing with a little 1km at around 8%. Leaning towards a GC finish so going a few beers on the break with the match bet double as the bet for the day.
Win
de Gendt @ 40/1
Bevin @ 150/1
Caicedo @ 250/1
Match bet double
Buitrago/Kelderman - Higuita/Mas @ 21/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 5
Couple from GC and two break darts for the day - all at beer level
Hayter @ 8/1
Pacher @ 22/1
de Gendt @ 40/1
Bevin @ 125/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
1u Pacher 22/1
0.5u Stannard 40/1 Poels 80/1
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
0.5u Lutsenko 14/1, Padun 80/1 Hagen 125/1
Main bet Ellisonde 1 unit at 25/1 BetX
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
Please can I have at least 1 in the break LOL
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 6
Elissonde @ 23/1
Taaramae @ 25/1
Chavez @ 80/1
Match bet double
Carapaz/Lopez - Mas/Hindley @ 37/20
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kcmarinopirlo
- Offline
- Posts: 362
- Thank you received: 131
Twitter @kamalch53215288
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 7
Has to be the break?
Pacher @ 33/1
de Gendt @ 40/1
Vendrame @ 45/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
The Vann wrote: 46 Riders have made breaks to date and I have managed to pick NIL. Have had three real bets with closest being yesterday where Carapaz had a bad day on a dinky climb. One positive Covid to date in the entire peloton takes a climber out of my outright team match bet. Should probably dismantle my Vuelta tent and slope off into the night - just too dumb to read the leaves is The Vann
Stage 7
Has to be the break?
Pacher @ 33/1
de Gendt @ 40/1
Vendrame @ 45/1
And Vendrame gets second place in the Covid positive test lottery
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kcmarinopirlo
- Offline
- Posts: 362
- Thank you received: 131
Rudy Molard 250/1 + Quinten Pacher @300/1
Twitter @kamalch53215288
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 8
Pinot @ 20/1
Chavez @ 28/1
Match bet double
Geoghegan Hart/Almeida - Yates/O"Connor @ 22/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
Cracker stage today and going 0.5 unit on Rechenbach 66/1 and Ellisonde 801/
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- mackem
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 6581
- Thank you received: 939
twitter: @goodforthegame
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 9
Same as yesterday but final climb of 4km at 13% designed for Remco.
Evenepoel @ 3/1
Hayter @ 125/1
Match bet double
O ' Connor/Hindley - Yates/Rodriguez @ 21/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Rest Day Thoughts
Have been wanting a dip on the teams market but we only get win. Been eyeing Bahrain all tour and now they are 9/1 but I think the loss of Poels just makes that 3rd counting time a problem in the big GC climbs. No value in the green jersey as one of Bennett or Pedersen should take it and the Mountains look sorted. Left with GC.
My take is Roglic is still not in top form and Mas has certainly excelled so far but started showing a little wear and tear yesterday. Remco cannot be crowned until the last descent is finished.Going with the UAE youngster who still looked full of running yesterday. He finished 5th in Volta Catalunya and can hold his own on a TT bike.
1-3
Ayuso @ 3/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 10
Dennis/Hayter @ 12/10
and a treble
Rodriguez/Mas - Wright/Durbridge - Yates/Ayuso @ 4/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
The Vann wrote: ITT today and Remco is 5/20. No value in that market. Taking on the Hayter/Dennis match up. Dennis looked good in the Commonwealth games and he is not going to the Worlds so this is his last ITT of the season. Jumbo are usually very good with their riders and allow them time for their favorite discipline.
Stage 10
Dennis/Hayter @ 12/10
and a treble
Rodriguez/Mas - Wright/Durbridge - Yates/Ayuso @ 4/1
Hayter out. Not taking anything else.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 11
190Km flat with a 4km straight wide boulevard finish probably into a reasonable head wind. Never know who will start with the covid positives but Merlier still has his lead out men. I'm looking for someone who can avoid the wind, be well positioned and try for the podium over the last 100m. With Bennett out van Poppel fits the bill but I'm taking the longer odds on
e/w
Coquard @ 23/1 ( Podium at 5/1 the main bet )
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 12
I think there is every chance the right break stays today so keeping a few pence for a possible in-play shot
e/w
Hamilton @ 66/1
Match bet double
Meintjies/Padun - Uran/Pozzovivo @ 24/10 (Should work if Padun misses break)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
I battle with this commentary team - lets leave it at that LOL
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kcmarinopirlo
- Offline
- Posts: 362
- Thank you received: 131
Thomas De Gendt @80/1
Filippo Conca @500/1
Twitter @kamalch53215288
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 13
Two mountain top finishes over the weekend so bunch sprint virtually guaranteed today. Finish is around 800m at 5% which should suit Pedersen. I thought van Poppel looked pretty nippy two stages ago and this finish suits him too.
Win
van Poppel @ 7/2
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 14
Win
Padun @ 14/1
e/w
Zambanini @ 300/1
Match bet double
Almeida/Geoghagen Hart - Uran/Meintjies @ 28/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Today's stage looks like many before it but we saw Remco in trouble yesterday which means GC is worth a watch today. I think they only try Remco on the last climb so a break still has a good chance even though the stage is only 152km.
Stage 15
Win
Taaramae @ 28/1
e/w
Zambanini @ 400/1
Match bet double
Almeida/Ayuso - O'Connor/Hindley @ 17/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
15u Roglic to win the race at 8/11 - rckon Evenpoel will be under huge pressure and may crack today
7 units Almeida/Aruyo at 9/10 for todays stage
0.5u on Arensman 80/1 Landa 22/1
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Meintjies @ 19/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
Brent Graham wrote: feel the need for some action
15u Roglic to win the race at 8/11 - rckon Evenpoel will be under huge pressure and may crack today
7 units Almeida/Aruyo at 9/10 for todays stage
0.5u on Arensman 80/1 Landa 22/1
So I throw caution to the win and get stuck into the Roglic outright (now gone 3/1) and the Almeida match play which loses
What saves me? A half a unit play on an 80/1 shot - I really should just cut the big strikes out (I won't of course)
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Had a brief look at the outright markets yesterday but no value there.
Stage 16
Win
de Gendt @ 40/1
Impey @ 40/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Offline
- Posts: 4827
- Thank you received: 1056
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Stage 17
Hoping a Bahrain rider makes the break today but main punt the double.
Win
Wright @ 33/1
e/w
Zambanini @ 150/1
Match bet double
O'Connor/Arsensman
Carapaz/Vine
@ 18/10 (Should be OK if Arensman not in break)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
The Vann wrote: Sadly Roglic a non-starter today. A real pity as I think Remco is in trouble if he is forced to pull the phantom flat stunt on a dinky climb like that.
Stage 17
Hoping a Bahrain rider makes the break today but main punt the double.
Win
Wright @ 33/1
e/w
Zambanini @ 150/1
Match bet double
O'Connor/Arsensman
Carapaz/Vine
@ 18/10 (Should be OK if Arensman not in break)
With Roglic out I think that 125/1 floating around on Dennis needs a unit or two so I am on it.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Couch Critic
- Offline
Love Roglic for showing serious balls yesterday and I can't help but love the bloke!
Stage 17 - surely the break with Roglic out and not really a serious mountain day.
Reckon you need some horsepower for flattish start en then a decent kick at the end
Tao GH - 25/1
David de la Cruz - 50/1
Bob Jungles - 80/1
Twitter: @HDiemont
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kcmarinopirlo
- Offline
- Posts: 362
- Thank you received: 131
Twitter @kamalch53215288
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Win
Harper @ 25/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Couch Critic
- Offline
Needless to say Mas smashes Gesink's lead in the final km but ends up setting Remco up for the win ffs! Nothing like having second and third on a stage at big odds - cycling is such a feisty beast
Twitter: @HDiemont
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Bet Fred Wright on most stages so have to take him today
Stage 19
Win
Wright @ 8/1
Teunissen @ 40/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kcmarinopirlo
- Offline
- Posts: 362
- Thank you received: 131
Either way should be a FULL GAS stage
Twitter @kamalch53215288
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
It's been a rubbish punting tour but this is the last stage for match bets so maybe a little extra on the pick
Stage 20
Win
Harper @ 50/1
e/w
Herrada @ 100/1
Match bet double
Hindley/Almeida - Pinot/Carapaz @ 18/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
Carapaz got his final litter warning yesterday. Chucks something outside zones today and he loses the jersey.
KOM
Beer level
Soler @ 30/1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4455
- Thank you received: 1180
A few beers for the final stage. Surely he has to get a decent position in one sprint?
Merlier @ 9/4
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.