Vuelta a España 2022

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1 year 8 months ago #1 by mackem
Vuelta a España 2022 was created by mackem
Vuelta a España starts Friday 19th August, I think some teams are still to be finalised at time of this post but Roglic is the GC favourites at around 19/10. All Vuelta bets, outright or individual stages are most welcome here

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 year 8 months ago #2 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
On to most probably my favorite Grand Tour for stages of interest. Not a single stage over 200km with 9 mountain top finishes albeit mostly shortish climbs.
Outrights
Once again the two markets I would enjoy a shot on are not being offered locally. The 1-3 on teams and young riders.
I think the teams market could be worth a dip this year. By my reckoning any of the top 10 teams could win. Leaning Bahrain but hope they may lose some time in the TTT as the current 4/1 is a little short.

A team match bet for me and two cases of beer up front

Intermarche WG/Movistar @ 13/10
Top 10 finish
Geoghegan Hart @ 6/1
Buitrago @ 20/1
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1 year 8 months ago #3 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Very tough looking past a Roglic domination if his fitness is 100% (or probably even 90%).

As a rule the short sharp climbs of the Vuelta suits him well. Add the fact that there is plenty of TT km's this year and he couldn't ask for a better chance to go 4 from 4.

But of course this is Spain and the most volatile of the Grand Tours so we need to find a few higher odd runners somewhere.

Simon Yates win at 12/1
His TT has improved a lot and he should love the climbs.

The Young Rider market also catches my eye. Almeida and Evenpoel are still rather untested over 3 weeks and I reckon there is some value to be had lower down the boards.
Brandon McNulty 25/1
Buitrago 50/1
If Landismo goes flop it could be every man for himself at Bahrain whilst a complete drop-off day for Almeida could open the door for McNulty.

Lastly the Polkas.
Stabs at:
Thymen Arendsman 50/1
Higuita 50/1
Masnada 110/1

Twitter: @HDiemont

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1 year 8 months ago #4 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Allocated a six pack of free bets at one book so joining Couch on Yates.

Stage 1
Given an incident free run I think Bike Exchange get close today so a little nibble on them
Win
Bike Exchange @ 10/1
Match Bet
Bike Exchange/Ineos @ 7/4 Main Bet

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1 year 8 months ago #5 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Thanks guys for the write ups, a couple for me early:

Top 10
Hugh Carthy @ 78/10 (WSB)
Whilst hasnt been in decent form, remember him been more than decent up the climbs on previous tours, and worth ago even if not 1st choice with Uran as probable Number 1.

Stage 1 - Bikeexchange over Ineos @ 7/4

Enjoy the race

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1 year 8 months ago #6 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Late Outright Call
To win a stage - Yes
Yates @ 16/10

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1 year 8 months ago #7 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Unfortunately drew the short stick on the weather yesterday and the bet was never in play.

Stage 2
Run-in looks a little dodgy today so maybe a little more open then betting would suggest. This fellow has beaten Ackermann and Bennett this season so is in with a chance.
e/w
Thijssen @ 12/1

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1 year 8 months ago - 1 year 8 months ago #8 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Run-in confirmed as a little dodgy yesterday and my man Thijssen watched the finish from underneath his bicycle on a nicely selected patch of tar 500m from the line.
Stage 3
Finish looks much safer today and is expected to be run into a headwind. Going very late could work so if you are useless at positioning and only arrive at the pointy end late you could be in business.
e/w
Groves @ 14/1
Last edit: 1 year 8 months ago by The Vann.

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1 year 8 months ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Stage 4
152km Today finishing with a little 1km at around 8%. Leaning towards a GC finish so going a few beers on the break with the match bet double as the bet for the day.

Win
de Gendt @ 40/1
Bevin @ 150/1
Caicedo @ 250/1
Match bet double
Buitrago/Kelderman - Higuita/Mas @ 21/10
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1 year 8 months ago #10 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Nor even close on either match bet leg yesterday. Need to keep an eye on Mas - I was impressed.
Stage 5
Couple from GC and two break darts for the day - all at beer level
Hayter @ 8/1
Pacher @ 22/1
de Gendt @ 40/1
Bevin @ 125/1

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1 year 8 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
My 1st entry into the Vuelta - should be a break today

1u Pacher 22/1
0.5u Stannard 40/1 Poels 80/1

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1 year 8 months ago #12 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Wide open stage today and I think the break again

0.5u Lutsenko 14/1, Padun 80/1 Hagen 125/1

Main bet Ellisonde 1 unit at 25/1 BetX

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1 year 8 months ago #13 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
adding 0.5u Polanc at 50/1

Please can I have at least 1 in the break LOL

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1 year 8 months ago #14 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Nil in break yesterday. Took Impey around 40km out and lost that too. Fortunately nothing large so miffed but can still afford to eat. Taking a bet on the double today

Stage 6
Elissonde @ 23/1
Taaramae @ 25/1
Chavez @ 80/1
Match bet double
Carapaz/Lopez - Mas/Hindley @ 37/20

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1 year 7 months ago #15 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Small nibble on Dan McLay today @300/1 Theres about 60 odd kms after the climb so can see many coming back.

Twitter @kamalch53215288
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1 year 7 months ago - 1 year 7 months ago #16 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
46 Riders have made breaks to date and I have managed to pick NIL. Have had three real bets with closest being yesterday where Carapaz had a bad day on a dinky climb. One positive Covid to date in the entire peloton takes a climber out of my outright team match bet. Should probably dismantle my Vuelta tent and slope off into the night - just too dumb to read the leaves is The Vann

Stage 7
Has to be the break?
Pacher @ 33/1
de Gendt @ 40/1
Vendrame @ 45/1
Last edit: 1 year 7 months ago by The Vann.

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1 year 7 months ago #17 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022

The Vann wrote: 46 Riders have made breaks to date and I have managed to pick NIL. Have had three real bets with closest being yesterday where Carapaz had a bad day on a dinky climb. One positive Covid to date in the entire peloton takes a climber out of my outright team match bet. Should probably dismantle my Vuelta tent and slope off into the night - just too dumb to read the leaves is The Vann

Stage 7
Has to be the break?
Pacher @ 33/1
de Gendt @ 40/1
Vendrame @ 45/1


And Vendrame gets second place in the Covid positive test lottery :sick:

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1 year 7 months ago #18 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Couple of FDJ Breakaway hopefuls today;

Rudy Molard 250/1 + Quinten Pacher @300/1

Twitter @kamalch53215288
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1 year 7 months ago #19 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Really interested to see how Remco goes on the longer finishing climb today. Was tempted to take that Mas 11/10 in the match up but have chickened.

Stage 8
Pinot @ 20/1
Chavez @ 28/1
Match bet double
Geoghegan Hart/Almeida - Yates/O"Connor @ 22/10

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1 year 7 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Not sure whats worse, not having a rider in the break or having your 80/1 shot (Padun) shorten to 15/10 only to descend like a Pinot

Cracker stage today and going 0.5 unit on Rechenbach 66/1 and Ellisonde 801/

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1 year 7 months ago #21 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Hardly seen any Vuelta so far but an opportunity to watch on Sunday, nibble at Wout Poels aat 33's

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 year 7 months ago #22 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Just might be turning the corner. Got Pinot in the break - no money though - but made the double.
Stage 9
Same as yesterday but final climb of 4km at 13% designed for Remco.
Evenepoel @ 3/1
Hayter @ 125/1
Match bet double
O ' Connor/Hindley - Yates/Rodriguez @ 21/10

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1 year 7 months ago #23 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
I backed Remco 7/1 and Roglic 7/1 in running and laid Meintjies through a mate on Betfair - not a great day for me but well done to Louis

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1 year 7 months ago #24 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
With around 90km to go Louis was 5/1. Unfortunately read the odds out loud and the Missus threatened to beat me to death if I put money on him. Still has not forgiven me for Daryl in stage 5.

Rest Day Thoughts
Have been wanting a dip on the teams market but we only get win. Been eyeing Bahrain all tour and now they are 9/1 but I think the loss of Poels just makes that 3rd counting time a problem in the big GC climbs. No value in the green jersey as one of Bennett or Pedersen should take it and the Mountains look sorted. Left with GC.
My take is Roglic is still not in top form and Mas has certainly excelled so far but started showing a little wear and tear yesterday. Remco cannot be crowned until the last descent is finished.Going with the UAE youngster who still looked full of running yesterday. He finished 5th in Volta Catalunya and can hold his own on a TT bike.

1-3
Ayuso @ 3/1
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1 year 7 months ago #25 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
ITT today and Remco is 5/20. No value in that market. Taking on the Hayter/Dennis match up. Dennis looked good in the Commonwealth games and he is not going to the Worlds so this is his last ITT of the season. Jumbo are usually very good with their riders and allow them time for their favorite discipline.

Stage 10
Dennis/Hayter @ 12/10
and a treble
Rodriguez/Mas - Wright/Durbridge - Yates/Ayuso @ 4/1

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1 year 7 months ago #26 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022

The Vann wrote: ITT today and Remco is 5/20. No value in that market. Taking on the Hayter/Dennis match up. Dennis looked good in the Commonwealth games and he is not going to the Worlds so this is his last ITT of the season. Jumbo are usually very good with their riders and allow them time for their favorite discipline.

Stage 10
Dennis/Hayter @ 12/10
and a treble
Rodriguez/Mas - Wright/Durbridge - Yates/Ayuso @ 4/1


Hayter out. Not taking anything else.

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1 year 7 months ago #27 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Collected on the treble yesterday so we fight on
Stage 11
190Km flat with a 4km straight wide boulevard finish probably into a reasonable head wind. Never know who will start with the covid positives but Merlier still has his lead out men. I'm looking for someone who can avoid the wind, be well positioned and try for the podium over the last 100m. With Bennett out van Poppel fits the bill but I'm taking the longer odds on
e/w
Coquard @ 23/1 ( Podium at 5/1 the main bet )

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1 year 7 months ago #28 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
So had a choice of two yesterday and duffed it. Would have to say this Vuelta just feels flat. Too many stages with very little interest until the end (like today) and the commentary team not good enough to cover the cracks.
Stage 12
I think there is every chance the right break stays today so keeping a few pence for a possible in-play shot
e/w
Hamilton @ 66/1
Match bet double
Meintjies/Padun - Uran/Pozzovivo @ 24/10 (Should work if Padun misses break)

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1 year 7 months ago #29 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Been a crazy week so stayed out of things but will get involved on the weekend

I battle with this commentary team - lets leave it at that LOL

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1 year 7 months ago #30 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Today looks like not the most exciting stage, but taking a punt on a couple of Lotto Soudal riders making the break; (hoping they avoid relegation too)

Thomas De Gendt @80/1
Filippo Conca @500/1

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1 year 7 months ago #31 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Padun obliged yesterday so we made the double. Managed to avoid anything in-play so only our 3rd stage in 12 showing a little profit.
Stage 13
Two mountain top finishes over the weekend so bunch sprint virtually guaranteed today. Finish is around 800m at 5% which should suit Pedersen. I thought van Poppel looked pretty nippy two stages ago and this finish suits him too.
Win
van Poppel @ 7/2

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1 year 7 months ago #32 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Not a great looking stage again today. I expect the break to win again as GC riders rest for tomorrow.
Stage 14
Win
Padun @ 14/1
e/w
Zambanini @ 300/1
Match bet double
Almeida/Geoghagen Hart - Uran/Meintjies @ 28/10

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1 year 7 months ago #33 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Also on Padun today

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1 year 7 months ago - 1 year 7 months ago #34 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Louis shades Uran yesterday so lose double and my Ayuso top 3, besides having covid, also had to change bikes 3km out.
Today's stage looks like many before it but we saw Remco in trouble yesterday which means GC is worth a watch today. I think they only try Remco on the last climb so a break still has a good chance even though the stage is only 152km.
Stage 15
Win
Taaramae @ 28/1
e/w
Zambanini @ 400/1
Match bet double
Almeida/Ayuso - O'Connor/Hindley @ 17/10
Last edit: 1 year 7 months ago by The Vann.

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1 year 7 months ago #35 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
feel the need for some action
15u Roglic to win the race at 8/11 - rckon Evenpoel will be under huge pressure and may crack today

7 units Almeida/Aruyo at 9/10 for todays stage

0.5u on Arensman 80/1 Landa 22/1

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1 year 7 months ago #36 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
125km to go
Meintjies @ 19/1

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1 year 7 months ago #37 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022

Brent Graham wrote: feel the need for some action
15u Roglic to win the race at 8/11 - rckon Evenpoel will be under huge pressure and may crack today

7 units Almeida/Aruyo at 9/10 for todays stage

0.5u on Arensman 80/1 Landa 22/1


So I throw caution to the win and get stuck into the Roglic outright (now gone 3/1) and the Almeida match play which loses

What saves me? A half a unit play on an 80/1 shot - I really should just cut the big strikes out (I won't of course)

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1 year 7 months ago #38 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Great pick Sunday Brent. My Vuelta is so bad I missed your post so never had a chance to consider Arensman.

Had a brief look at the outright markets yesterday but no value there.

Stage 16
Win
de Gendt @ 40/1
Impey @ 40/1

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1 year 7 months ago #39 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2022
1 unit Wright win at 12/1 and 1 unit Roglic podium at 5/1

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1 year 7 months ago - 1 year 7 months ago #40 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Sadly Roglic a non-starter today. A real pity as I think Remco is in trouble if he is forced to pull the phantom flat stunt on a dinky climb like that.

Stage 17
Hoping a Bahrain rider makes the break today but main punt the double.
Win
Wright @ 33/1
e/w
Zambanini @ 150/1
Match bet double
O'Connor/Arsensman
Carapaz/Vine
@ 18/10 (Should be OK if Arensman not in break)
Last edit: 1 year 7 months ago by The Vann.

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1 year 7 months ago #41 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022

The Vann wrote: Sadly Roglic a non-starter today. A real pity as I think Remco is in trouble if he is forced to pull the phantom flat stunt on a dinky climb like that.

Stage 17
Hoping a Bahrain rider makes the break today but main punt the double.
Win
Wright @ 33/1
e/w
Zambanini @ 150/1
Match bet double
O'Connor/Arsensman
Carapaz/Vine
@ 18/10 (Should be OK if Arensman not in break)


With Roglic out I think that 125/1 floating around on Dennis needs a unit or two so I am on it.

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1 year 7 months ago #42 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Had a nice win on Meintjies a week or so ago but been bleeding along the roads of Spain for the rest so pretty much even at this stage.

Love Roglic for showing serious balls yesterday and I can't help but love the bloke!

Stage 17 - surely the break with Roglic out and not really a serious mountain day.
Reckon you need some horsepower for flattish start en then a decent kick at the end

Tao GH - 25/1
David de la Cruz - 50/1
Bob Jungles - 80/1

Twitter: @HDiemont

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1 year 7 months ago #43 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Joining Vann with Zambanini @150/1 and also taking Impey @600/1

Twitter @kamalch53215288

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1 year 7 months ago #44 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Stage 18
Win
Harper @ 25/1

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1 year 7 months ago #45 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2022
For Stage 18 I had Gesink pre stage at 150/1. Took Mas in running at 66/1...

Needless to say Mas smashes Gesink's lead in the final km but ends up setting Remco up for the win ffs! Nothing like having second and third on a stage at big odds - cycling is such a feisty beast

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1 year 7 months ago #46 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Stiffs Couch. Can't say I have even got that close on a stage yet.
Bet Fred Wright on most stages so have to take him today

Stage 19
Win
Wright @ 8/1
Teunissen @ 40/1

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1 year 7 months ago #47 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Vuelta a España 2022
With Vann in hoping Ayuso can hold onto the Podium today to salvage something from this Tour, took him @4/1 with Superman Lopez the big threat, not sure Almeida will work for him either.

Either way should be a FULL GAS stage

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1 year 7 months ago #48 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Quite right kc. I think Astana will throw everything at him today and for some strange reason UAE seem to be looking after Almeida and hanging the youngster out to dry.
It's been a rubbish punting tour but this is the last stage for match bets so maybe a little extra on the pick

Stage 20
Win
Harper @ 50/1
e/w
Herrada @ 100/1
Match bet double
Hindley/Almeida - Pinot/Carapaz @ 18/10

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1 year 7 months ago #49 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
Desperate times call for desperate measures
Carapaz got his final litter warning yesterday. Chucks something outside zones today and he loses the jersey.
KOM
Beer level
Soler @ 30/1
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1 year 7 months ago #50 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2022
My train smash of a Vuelta finishes today. Currently 51 units down but set to recover 12 if Ayuso does not fall over today - Thrills! Even more depressing has been the race itself. The route did not work, commentary was poor, the loss of Woods/Yates and Roglic was unfortunate and the winner would not make my list of top1,000 supportable riders in cycling.
A few beers for the final stage. Surely he has to get a decent position in one sprint?

Merlier @ 9/4

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