All Football Tips w/c 11th March

EPL Monday
Chelsea vs Newcastle

These two teams have been below par this season and I find it hard to separate them. Think it could easily be a 0-0 game or something like 2-2. Taking the draw for tonight as the odds seem too high.

Match to end in a DRAW - 33/10

Chelsea vs Newcastle

Bet: Over 3.25 goals @1.98


Almeria vs Sevilla

Bet: Almeria +0.5 @1.70

Quill wrote: Chelsea vs Newcastle

Bet: Over 3.25 goals @1.98


Almeria vs Sevilla

Bet: Almeria +0.5 @1.70

Brilliant yet again Quill, fine form

UCL Tuesday
Arsenal vs Porto 2nd Leg (0-1)

Porto bring a 1 goal lead into London tonight and will most likely play the same game plan as last time. Arsenal were terrible in the first leg and nothing like their form in the league. Arsenal away in Europe have always blown cold so that shock loss was not unexpected. At home, they are a different beast and could easily blow Porto away in the first half.

This is Arsenal last game until 31st March. So there is no excuses for the Gunners and I think they will put on a show for the fans here. Porto wont be able to keep up with them here, and I believe Arsenal PL form will rub off on this UCL game.

One of the reasons for Arsenal impressive form is Declan Rice and thanks to Jorginho playing at DM, Rice has been able to play more forward. His playing alongside Odegaard at times, and his goals and shots offer plenty of value. I think he is a massive runner for 2+ shots tonight.

Should things go badly for Porto tonight, they could easily lose their heads here. I have a feeling a red card is a runner and as long as Pepe is playing, there is always a chance.

Since there is so many bets that appeal tonight, I am taking a play from Quill's playbook and dutching some bets.

Bet: Over 1.5 First Half Goals - 13/10
Bet: Declan Rice over 1.5 shots - 17/20 (Sunbet)
Bet: Red Card in the game - 41/10
Bet: Arsenal Win & Over 0.5 FHG & Rice 1+ shot & 8+ match corners - 13/10 (Sportingbet Bet Builder)

EPL Wednesday
Bournemouth vs Luton

Luton return to the Vitality Stadium tonight to play this rearranged game after it was postponed earlier this season due to the unfortunate cardiac arrest of their captain in the second half of that game. Emotions will be running high for the team, but I think Luton are in a good space now especially after that late goal against Palace.

This game and the massive six pointer against Forest at the weekend are games Luton boss Edwards is targeting as then they have a tough run of games. With the impending points deduction to come for both Forest and Everton, Luton have a good chance to beat the drop and there should be plenty of fight in the Hatters tonight.

Luton 3+ corners & +2 goal handicap - 11/10

Bournemouth vs Luton

Following you here Naidoo, and adding this.

Bournemouth have been incredibly effective at scoring off their transition opportunities, as they’ve scored seven goals off of forced high turnovers, which is the second-most in the league.
It also helps that they have a great striker in Dominic Solanke to finish off all of these chances. Solanke is the most important player to Bournemouth right now, as he's scored 14 of their 37 goals and has a 0.59 xG per 90 minute scoring rate this season.

Luton Town is going man to man across the pitch, pressing opponents high and trying to force turnovers. That has led to back and forth matches where Luton Town are conceding a ton of chances, mostly in transition. The Hatters are the worst defensive team in the Premier League and have conceded 14.8 expected goals over their last six matches. While all of that sounds bad, it's hard to argue that Rob Edward's approach is the wrong one.

During this six match run where they have conceded a boat load of chances, they have also created 9.5 expected goals, which is a much higher output than they had in the beginning of the season.

The main way that Luton Town create all of their chances is via crosses, as they are top five in the Premier League at crosses completed into the penalty area. Bournemouth are very average at defending crosses and have the third-worst aerial duel win percentage, so the Hatters will have their chances in this match.

Given the tactical versatility that Bournemouth have, they should be able to torch Luton Town in a back and forth transitional battle.

Luton Town has to go for it and be super aggressive out of possession because they do not have a choice.
They are falling behind quickly in the relegation battle, so they need three points here, which is not the best scenario when facing a team that has the pace like Bournemouth do.

The flip side though is Bournemouth are average at defending the one thing that Luton Town excel at, so the Hatters could put the ball in the back of the net once or twice.

Bet: Total over 3.5 goals @2.00

Quill wrote: Bournemouth vs Luton

Following you here Naidoo, and adding this.

Bournemouth have been incredibly effective at scoring off their transition opportunities, as they’ve scored seven goals off of forced high turnovers, which is the second-most in the league.
It also helps that they have a great striker in Dominic Solanke to finish off all of these chances. Solanke is the most important player to Bournemouth right now, as he's scored 14 of their 37 goals and has a 0.59 xG per 90 minute scoring rate this season.

Luton Town is going man to man across the pitch, pressing opponents high and trying to force turnovers. That has led to back and forth matches where Luton Town are conceding a ton of chances, mostly in transition. The Hatters are the worst defensive team in the Premier League and have conceded 14.8 expected goals over their last six matches. While all of that sounds bad, it's hard to argue that Rob Edward's approach is the wrong one.

During this six match run where they have conceded a boat load of chances, they have also created 9.5 expected goals, which is a much higher output than they had in the beginning of the season.

The main way that Luton Town create all of their chances is via crosses, as they are top five in the Premier League at crosses completed into the penalty area. Bournemouth are very average at defending crosses and have the third-worst aerial duel win percentage, so the Hatters will have their chances in this match.

Given the tactical versatility that Bournemouth have, they should be able to torch Luton Town in a back and forth transitional battle.

Luton Town has to go for it and be super aggressive out of possession because they do not have a choice.
They are falling behind quickly in the relegation battle, so they need three points here, which is not the best scenario when facing a team that has the pace like Bournemouth do.

The flip side though is Bournemouth are average at defending the one thing that Luton Town excel at, so the Hatters could put the ball in the back of the net once or twice.

Bet: Total over 3.5 goals @2.00

Thanks Quill will follow you on this as well. Love the write up and I agree 100% with you. I think its commendable that Edwards has stuck to his approach and style of play that worked so well in the Championship. Most likely Luton will be going down but they have given a go in every game they played, that's so much better than teams who give up immediately and just park the bus without success.

Dortmund vs PSV

I think that PSV can create problems to Dortmund. Their numbers in the first leg and in the Eredivisie are quite good.

Bet: PSV +0.5 @1.70

Hold a few tickets for Inter to do well this year so no harm in taking

To Qualify

Atletico Madrid/Borussia Dortmund @ 5/1

Naidoo wrote:

Quill wrote: Bournemouth vs Luton

Following you here Naidoo, and adding this.

Bournemouth have been incredibly effective at scoring off their transition opportunities, as they’ve scored seven goals off of forced high turnovers, which is the second-most in the league.
It also helps that they have a great striker in Dominic Solanke to finish off all of these chances. Solanke is the most important player to Bournemouth right now, as he's scored 14 of their 37 goals and has a 0.59 xG per 90 minute scoring rate this season.

Luton Town is going man to man across the pitch, pressing opponents high and trying to force turnovers. That has led to back and forth matches where Luton Town are conceding a ton of chances, mostly in transition. The Hatters are the worst defensive team in the Premier League and have conceded 14.8 expected goals over their last six matches. While all of that sounds bad, it's hard to argue that Rob Edward's approach is the wrong one.

During this six match run where they have conceded a boat load of chances, they have also created 9.5 expected goals, which is a much higher output than they had in the beginning of the season.

The main way that Luton Town create all of their chances is via crosses, as they are top five in the Premier League at crosses completed into the penalty area. Bournemouth are very average at defending crosses and have the third-worst aerial duel win percentage, so the Hatters will have their chances in this match.

Given the tactical versatility that Bournemouth have, they should be able to torch Luton Town in a back and forth transitional battle.

Luton Town has to go for it and be super aggressive out of possession because they do not have a choice.
They are falling behind quickly in the relegation battle, so they need three points here, which is not the best scenario when facing a team that has the pace like Bournemouth do.

The flip side though is Bournemouth are average at defending the one thing that Luton Town excel at, so the Hatters could put the ball in the back of the net once or twice.

Bet: Total over 3.5 goals @2.00

Thanks Quill will follow you on this as well. Love the write up and I agree 100% with you. I think its commendable that Edwards has stuck to his approach and style of play that worked so well in the Championship. Most likely Luton will be going down but they have given a go in every game they played, that's so much better than teams who give up immediately and just park the bus without success.

Lol and when I praise Edwards about his attacking football and not parking the bus, Luton go and blow a 3-0 HT lead.

Nice job again tonight Quill, atleast your bet was stress free compared to my one

Naidoo wrote: Bournemouth vs Luton

...

Lol and when I praise Edwards about his attacking football and not parking the bus, Luton go and blow a 3-0 HT lead.

Nice job again tonight Quill, atleast your bet was stress free compared to my one

Unbelievable from Luton.
A stretched comparison, but Brazil was playing for goals in the 80s, no defence. Remember the 2-3 defeat to Italy at the World Cup?
Still, cannot believe they didn't even get a draw from 3-0 up, especially when they need points like air.

The Vann wrote: Hold a few tickets for Inter to do well this year so no harm in taking

To Qualify

Atletico Madrid/Borussia Dortmund @ 5/1

A very nice one here, Vann!
Unfortunately for me, I missed it.

Quill wrote:

The Vann wrote: Hold a few tickets for Inter to do well this year so no harm in taking

To Qualify

Atletico Madrid/Borussia Dortmund @ 5/1

A very nice one here, Vann!
Unfortunately for me, I missed it.

Agree, good shout Vann...it's a pity Inter are out though, because I felt they would be the only team who could beat City over two legs.

City doing back to back trebles is a massive runner now unfortunately

Quill wrote:

Naidoo wrote: Bournemouth vs Luton

...

Lol and when I praise Edwards about his attacking football and not parking the bus, Luton go and blow a 3-0 HT lead.

Nice job again tonight Quill, atleast your bet was stress free compared to my one

Unbelievable from Luton.
A stretched comparison, but Brazil was playing for goals in the 80s, no defence. Remember the 2-3 defeat to Italy at the World Cup?
Still, cannot believe they didn't even get a draw from 3-0 up, especially when they need points like air.

It's crazy, I was shocked with what I witnessed in the second half. Almost like watching basketball, no defending at all.

Its even crazier when u realize Luton have scored in 15 consecutive league games yet are shipping goals for fun. Bookies have caught on as well.

Europa League
Liverpool vs Sparta Praha

Sparta over 3.5 offsides - 13/10 (Sunbet)

Slavia Prague vs Milan

Bet: Total over 2.5 goals @1.80


West Ham vs Freiburg

Bet: Total over 2.5 goals @1.72

Naidoo wrote: Europa League
Liverpool vs Sparta Praha

Sparta over 3.5 offsides - 13/10 (Sunbet)

Adding over 1.5 First Half Goals in Liverpool game - 8/10

Quill wrote: Slavia Prague vs Milan

Bet: Total over 2.5 goals @1.80


West Ham vs Freiburg

Bet: Total over 2.5 goals @1.72

Quill u on some form man, just chucking out winners. Thanks for sharing these

Naidoo wrote:

Quill wrote: Slavia Prague vs Milan

Bet: Total over 2.5 goals @1.80


West Ham vs Freiburg

Bet: Total over 2.5 goals @1.72

Quill u on some form man, just chucking out winners. Thanks for sharing these

Thank you Naidoo.

I follow your bets whenever I can, nice previews too.

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona

I’ve had to go through a few betting firms to find this specific market for the upcoming clash between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona.

When these two teams pair up, it is usually met with a lot of passion and intensity. Diego Simeone, as both a player and coach, has never held back, so it comes as no surprise that his side follows a similar mold, especially when frustrated and outsmarted by their opponents.

Barcelona have had their measure in recent times, registering four straight wins over Atletico. Coincidentally, over all four of those occasions, we have seen at least 6 cards dished out. Averaging 11 yellow cards in their last two head-to-head meetings sums up the sort of game we can most likely anticipate.

Atletico are out of the title chase, but Barcelona still have a shot. They will need Real Madrid to drop in considerable form for that to happen, though. That being said, the incentive will be there for Barcelona to make it five from five against Atletico, which will surely not sit well with Simeone and his team, hopefully resulting in more cards.

Here are the recent stats between these two.

03.12.2023 Barcelona won 1-0 (10 yellow cards)
23.04.2023 Barcelona won 1-0 (12 yellow cards)
08.01.2023 Barcelona won 1-0 (5 yellow cards 2 Red cards)
06.02.2022 Barcelona won 4-2 (5 Yellow cards 1 Red card)

There were odds of 2.08 for over 5.5 bookings earlier in the week for this encounter. I was hoping more betting firms would offer the same market along with a similar price. Sadly, not many are willing to offer the market (not as of yet anyway), so I've had to take the reduced price of 1.84 at Sunbet.

Good luck if following!

Thanks BB, I will follow on that card pick and will also add a red card for small interest.

My weekend English Football plays. I may add something more on the big FA Cup tie on Sunday. Goodluck with everyone's bets this weekend.

EPL
Luton over 6.5 corners - 13/10
Brentford over 2.5 offsides - 17/10
BTTS in Spurs & Villa Games - 12/10

EFL
Ipswich & Wrexham Win Double - 13/10

FA CUP
City & Chelsea both to score 2+ Goals - 9/10
United/Liverpool over 11.5 corners - 21/20

Empoli vs Bologna

Bologna are currently sitting inside the top four in Serie A and the reason they are there is because of how good they are at defending their own penalty area.

The way Thiago Motta has his team set up makes it really difficult for opponents to play through the middle or even get into their penalty area. For the season, they are only allowing 5.1 shots per 90 minutes from inside the penalty box, which is the second-best mark in Italy behind only Juventus. Because of that, they are only allowing 0.82 npxG per 90 minutes.

The big problem for Bologna in this match is they are going to be without their star striker Joshua Zirkzee until the end of March.

Empoli are one of the worst offensive teams in the Serie A this season. Basically what has happened is any time they have to play a decent team, they struggle. First off, they are only averaging 0.89 npxG per 90 minutes on the season and they have not created over one expected goal in the nine matches they’ve played against the top seven teams in Serie A.

Bet: BTTS - No @1.75

Toulouse vs Lyon

Toulouse are one of the worst defensive teams in France this year, allowing 1.51 xG per 90 minutes.
Their problem is they don’t have any above average ball stoppers in the middle of the pitch to slow down their opponent.

Lyon have been outstanding offensively, even though they had to play against top teams like Lens, Nice and Marseille. Over their last six matches they have created 9.2 expected goals, which is a massive improvement from the beginning of the season when they were in the relegation zone.

Lyon are going to have one massive advantage in this match and it’s going to be on set pieces. They’ve created the most expected goals in Ligue 1 off them, while Toulouse have allowed the most.

Bet: Total over 2.5 goals @2.00

Geez Quill, u really saved me tonight after that shit show by the French U20 side.

Ended up ahead by backing ur bets as a double, cheers bud and thanks for sharing once again

Good plays Quill

Saturday acca Over 2.5 goals at

Swindon
Derby
Fleetwood
Stoke
WBA
Luton
Fulham
@ 52/1

Two from the EPL for the afternoon

BTTS - Yes at
Fulham + West Ham @ 5/4

Over 1.5 match goals by
Brentford/Luton/ Spurs @ 6/1

40/1 over 2.5 goals -

Ipswich V Sheffield Wednesday
Middlesbrough V Blackburn
Barnsley V Cheltenham
Fleetwood V Charlton
Accrington V Notts County
MK Dons V Crewe
Swindon V Doncaster

FA Cup
Man United vs Liverpool

I had a whole write up about why United are struggling and getting outperformed by their opponents especially regarding shots and corners conceded. I was all over the Liverpool corners line, outright win and shots for today but then I see the news of Casemiro out injured.

Now I have no clue how this game is going to go. United are getting dominated because Casemiro has lost his legs and his getting out runned in midfield, but now that his not playing I think that helps United.

If United do end up playing open and not counter attacking football, then Liverpool will easily win. It wont be a thrashing though as Klopp and the Reds return to Old Trafford next month in the league, so theres no need to add extra fire to that fixture.

But with no Casemiro for me it's now a game to watch and not bet but I will take two speculative card bets. Goodluck with everyone's bets for today and I hope it goes better than the disaster that was Rugby betting this weekend.

Alexis Mac Allister to get a card - 43/10
Raphael Varane to get a card - 67/10

Match I'm looking forward to today comes from The Championship

Leeds v Millwall
Ipswich reclaimed second spot yesterday so Leeds need a win here. Ref is Steve Martin who is mostly the 4th official but today gets his 5th match in The Championship. He waved 21 cards in the previous four. The market I like here is corners. When these two sides met at The Den we got 18 so I like today's line.

Bet builder
Corners over 10.5 and cards over 3.5 @ 2/1

Man United v Liverpool

Man Utd is conceding many shots per game. Against Man City two weeks ago they lost 3-1 conceding 27 shots and 3.3 expected goals.

They have injuries across the back line, with Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw out.

They get back Hojlund, Harry Maguire and Wan-Bissaka.

For Liverpool, Nunez and Salah are fully fit and healthy.
In the previous meeting ended 0-0, Liverpool ended up taking 34 shots, creating 2.3 expected goals and posting 48 touches in Manchester United's penalty area.

Over their last seven Premier League matches, Man Utd have conceded 21.2 shots on average with Luton Town, West Ham, Everton, Aston Villa and Manchester City, all taking over 20 shots.

Bet: Liverpool total shots over 18.5 @1.90

No big bets for me -

Liverpool win extra time 8/1
Liverpool win pens 12/1

Man Utd v Liverpool

Joining Quill on the Liverpool shots but could only get 19.5 @ 9/10. My pick on the cards will be the United right side defense where you can expect Robertson and Mac Allister to make your life a misery. Sticking with my goal scorer because I will be annoyed if I'm not on when he scores.

To get a card
Wan-Bissaka @ 38/10

ATGS
McTominay @ 23/4

Damn Vann what a brilliant start for your bets, McTom goal and the Leeds Bet Builder only needing 1 more corner with 45mins to go, brilliant!

southpaw wrote: No big bets for me -

Liverpool win extra time 8/1
Liverpool win pens 12/1

Massive runner now South!

Nice job all round today gents with the bets in the Liverpool game

Man United!!

Naidoo wrote:

southpaw wrote: No big bets for me -

Liverpool win extra time 8/1
Liverpool win pens 12/1

Massive runner now South!

Nice job all round today gents with the bets in the Liverpool game

Put the proverbial kiss of death on me there Vin! lol

Tough loss for reds to take there. We dominated and if Nunez had just not given it away for 3rd we were home and the 8/1 banked. Sickening.

southpaw wrote:

Naidoo wrote:

southpaw wrote: No big bets for me -

Liverpool win extra time 8/1
Liverpool win pens 12/1

Massive runner now South!

Nice job all round today gents with the bets in the Liverpool game

Put the proverbial kiss of death on me there Vin! lol

Tough loss for reds to take there. We dominated and if Nunez had just not given it away for 3rd we were home and the 8/1 banked. Sickening.

Crap sorry South

We were so damn wasteful here, got what we deserved at the end unfortunately. Well done United and their fans can look forward to Wembley now.

As a side note, I think we smash them at Old Trafford in the league next month. Klopp will make sure our boys are more lethal.