Super Rugby Rd 5, URC Week 12, Gallagher Week 13 22-24 March

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1 month 1 week ago #1 by Brent Graham
Those who followed either the newsletter or the forum will know that I had a disaster this past weekend.

Chased hard and ended up having a massive bet on France -4.5 and -5.5 which went belly up and it is almost with relief that I am going to take a break (as in scaling back) and will only leave small balances in those accounts that still have funds.

I have had a terrible run of wrong calls going for handicaps instead of points and then vice versa (eg France) and have had multiple last minute kicks miss which would have landed bets.

A year ago exactly the opposite happened and I had a crazy run of last minute victories.

I am not bitter at all and really just need a bit of a break away from pressure bets. Will still be playing some accas and perhaps a few 1st try scorers etc

Any here are my Super Rugby Caps for Round 5, there is also URC and Gallagher but I will leave those to the bookies to price up.

Hurricanes -18.5 v Rebels
Brumbies -14.5 v Moana Pasifika
Drua +4.5 v Waratahs
Chiefs -12.5 v Highlanders
Blues -9.5 v Crusaders
Force +9.5 v Reds

Have a good weekend everyone and look out for the live Super Rugby and URC shows

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #2 by The Vann
Get Crusaders at anything over a full score ie 6.5 I am on it.
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by The Vann. Reason: under should obviously be over

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #3 by Pablo
About URC correct me south african mates if I´m wrong but Stormers -10.5 looks very nice. Edinburgh traveled with their internationals to Cape Town but I have big doubts they play on Saturday (except from Healy). Squad doesn´t look great apart from internationals.
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by Pablo.

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1 month 1 week ago #4 by Brent Graham
Here are the current lines in brackets compared with my projections (not sure what movement since opening)

Hurricanes -18.5 (-17.5) v Rebels
Brumbies -14.5 (-13.5) v Moana Pasifika
Drua +4.5 (-3.5) v Waratahs
Chiefs -12.5 (-14.5) v Highlanders
Blues -9.5 (-5.5) v Crusaders
Force +9.5 (+11.5) v Reds

Most are close but big difference Drua game where I made Tahs favs and as Vann suggested my Blues minus was too high although I do like the -5.5 Blues

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1 month 1 week ago #5 by Pablo
Glasgow -14.5 ha @1.90 2u

I just read Cardiff will be without T Williams, Botham, Mann, Grady, Winnett and Josh Adams for sure. Martin and Lloyd doubts. Glasgow second unit is very powerful and even without all internationals (I expect some of them back) I think they should win by more than two scores.
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1 month 1 week ago #6 by Pablo
I managed to find Reds -8 ha @1.709 in pinnacle so I put 2u. They can hammer Force, Nic White looks like he wont play and Reds will welcome back Paisami and O'Connor.

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1 month 1 week ago #7 by Pablo
Bayonne @1.72 2u

La Rochelle just announced that internationals wont play this week plus Danty and Skelton sanctioned and injured respectively.

Bayonne full strength even with Mori back, at home they are very very strong so should be more favourites here.
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1 month 6 days ago #8 by Naidoo
Drua vs Tahs

The weather has not been great leading up to this game and more rain is expected ahead of Saturday. Officials are confident the game will go ahead and the drainage should be fine come Saturday. However, like the game against the Crusaders, this game at Lautoka should be another low scoring game with the humidity causing the players problems. By the 20min mark in the Drua game against Crusaders, both sets of players were breathing heavy and you could see them physically struggling.

I think more of the same is on the cards this Saturday and I am backing another low scoring game in Fiji. Taking a bet builder at Hollywoodbets:

Under 60.5 match points & each team under 32.5 points - 9/10 (Hollywoodbets)

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1 month 6 days ago #9 by Pablo
O43.5 ubb-st @1.85 2u

Looks like almost all international players back for both sides (Dupont for sure for ST, Jalibert its still doubt) and they play in the Marmut Atlantique no Chaban Delmas so pitch will be perfect.

Looks like a big overs match.
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1 month 5 days ago #10 by Brent Graham
A double header tonight starting with URC and the Oracle at 21h00 and then The Mossmann and Super Rugby probably around 21h30

Click here to set a reminder


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1 month 5 days ago #11 by GoGoNoNo

Pablo wrote: Bayonne @1.72 2u

La Rochelle just announced that internationals wont play this week plus Danty and Skelton sanctioned and injured respectively.

Bayonne full strength even with Mori back, at home they are very very strong so should be more favourites here.


Hello Pablo, your information is false, the internationals of La Rochelle will be lined up this weekend.

www.blog-rct.com/la-rochelle-a-pris-sa-d...-ses-internationaux/

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1 month 5 days ago #12 by Brent Graham
Guys I didn't see the opening URC caps - has there been any big movement? Did the Sharks open +1.5 v Ulster?

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1 month 5 days ago #13 by Pablo

GoGoNoNo wrote:

Pablo wrote: Bayonne @1.72 2u

La Rochelle just announced that internationals wont play this week plus Danty and Skelton sanctioned and injured respectively.

Bayonne full strength even with Mori back, at home they are very very strong so should be more favourites here.


Hello Pablo, your information is false, the internationals of La Rochelle will be lined up this weekend.

www.blog-rct.com/la-rochelle-a-pris-sa-d...-ses-internationaux/


Its what they said in French TV two days ago, that SR internationals were going to rest this week. But I saw some info today that some of them will play, I don´t see Atonio in that info at least and Boudehent 50/50.

By the way, SR still has lots of absences for this match and Bayonne go full strength. Not an easy place to visit Jean Dauger so I stick to my decision.

PD: not needed to say that something is false or not, sometimes info is correct and sometimes is wrong, but never false. That´s a very strong statement. Relax, chico.

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1 month 5 days ago #14 by GoGoNoNo

Pablo wrote:

GoGoNoNo wrote:

Pablo wrote: Bayonne @1.72 2u

La Rochelle just announced that internationals wont play this week plus Danty and Skelton sanctioned and injured respectively.

Bayonne full strength even with Mori back, at home they are very very strong so should be more favourites here.


Hello Pablo, your information is false, the internationals of La Rochelle will be lined up this weekend.

www.blog-rct.com/la-rochelle-a-pris-sa-d...-ses-internationaux/


Its what they said in French TV two days ago, that SR internationals were going to rest this week. But I saw some info today that some of them will play, I don´t see Atonio in that info at least and Boudehent 50/50.

By the way, SR still has lots of absences for this match and Bayonne go full strength. Not an easy place to visit Jean Dauger so I stick to my decision.

PD: not needed to say that something is false or not, sometimes info is correct and sometimes is wrong, but never false. That´s a very strong statement. Relax, chico.


Pablo, I am very relaxed and there is no aggression in my message towards you. I just wanted to inform you that the internationals would be available for this match.
I don't speak a word of English and I use a translator to communicate on the forum. Maybe the translation seemed too direct but that was not my intention.
Kind regards
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1 month 5 days ago #15 by Brent Graham
Super Rugby and URC selections will be posted in this article - 1st 2 Super Rugby games are up

Rebels over 21.5 at 9/10

Brumbies by 11-20 at 5/2

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1 month 5 days ago #16 by Naidoo
If anyone is looking for points in the Drua game, just a heads up that Hollywoodbets still has the line at 52.5 at 17/20. You have to use the same match bet builder option though to get the points line.

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1 month 5 days ago #17 by southpaw
Bit late to the rugby this weekend due to other commitments and haven’t even got a bet down. But I’m looking at that 43.5 line on Fiji and not surprisingly to some the overs punter in me is eyeing it up.

Need to see how bad conditions really are.

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1 month 5 days ago #18 by southpaw
Drawn into a Friday interest -

Over 5.5 Brumbies tries @ 5/6

This Moana side overdue a poor 80.

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1 month 5 days ago #19 by Brent Graham
Rebels awful but somehow deliver points again

Sticking with Brumbies 11-20 at 5/2 for an interest

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1 month 5 days ago #20 by Roger Rabbit

southpaw wrote: Drawn into a Friday interest -

Over 5.5 Brumbies tries @ 5/6

This Moana side overdue a poor 80.


Following you here South, let hope for more of the last game.

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1 month 5 days ago #21 by Pablo

GoGoNoNo wrote:

Pablo wrote:

GoGoNoNo wrote:

Pablo wrote: Bayonne @1.72 2u

La Rochelle just announced that internationals wont play this week plus Danty and Skelton sanctioned and injured respectively.

Bayonne full strength even with Mori back, at home they are very very strong so should be more favourites here.


Hello Pablo, your information is false, the internationals of La Rochelle will be lined up this weekend.

www.blog-rct.com/la-rochelle-a-pris-sa-d...-ses-internationaux/


Its what they said in French TV two days ago, that SR internationals were going to rest this week. But I saw some info today that some of them will play, I don´t see Atonio in that info at least and Boudehent 50/50.

By the way, SR still has lots of absences for this match and Bayonne go full strength. Not an easy place to visit Jean Dauger so I stick to my decision.

PD: not needed to say that something is false or not, sometimes info is correct and sometimes is wrong, but never false. That´s a very strong statement. Relax, chico.


Pablo, I am very relaxed and there is no aggression in my message towards you. I just wanted to inform you that the internationals would be available for this match.
I don't speak a word of English and I use a translator to communicate on the forum. Maybe the translation seemed too direct but that was not my intention.
Kind regards


Understood, maybe translation was not correct and I took it as it was too direct when it wasn't. No worries.

Even with your info, that looks correct after checking other sources, Bayonne at home still looks valuable for me (still Wardi, Atonio, Skelton, Botia, Kerr Barlow, Iribarren, Danty out)

Kind regards
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1 month 5 days ago #22 by Roger Rabbit

Roger Rabbit wrote:

southpaw wrote: Drawn into a Friday interest -

Over 5.5 Brumbies tries @ 5/6

This Moana side overdue a poor 80.


Following you here South, lets hope for more of the last game.


great start to the weekend :beer

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1 month 4 days ago #23 by southpaw

Roger Rabbit wrote:

Roger Rabbit wrote:

southpaw wrote: Drawn into a Friday interest -

Over 5.5 Brumbies tries @ 5/6

This Moana side overdue a poor 80.


Following you here South, lets hope for more of the last game.


great start to the weekend :beer


yeah nice to get Friday and weekend off to a winning start. It seriously puts me on back foot when Friday goes wrong. Am now raring to get stuck into a cracking days rugby tomorrow - SR, URC and womens 6N.

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1 month 4 days ago #24 by southpaw
Bulls -13.5 @ 17/20

I like the side named and this pitch should suit the Bulls attack and forwards. It's not a full 4G pitch, it's a hybrid and SA sides prefer this than the full artificial ones like in Cardiff.

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1 month 4 days ago #25 by The Vann
Having managed 0 from 5 on the cycling and matched that with 0 from 3 on the cricket I need to round off the evening with a small win

Ospreys v Munster

Never know what to expect from Swansea so why should the Ospreys be any different? Taking

Ospreys + 6.5 @ 19/20

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1 month 4 days ago #26 by Jameson

The Vann wrote: Having managed 0 from 5 on the cycling and matched that with 0 from 3 on the cricket I need to round off the evening with a small win

Ospreys v Munster

Never know what to expect from Swansea so why should the Ospreys be any different? Taking

Ospreys + 6.5 @ 19/20


Yep - me too. Strong bench there I think - though dodgy half backs!

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1 month 4 days ago #27 by Jameson
Its a game of two halves!

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1 month 4 days ago #28 by Naidoo
Taking this now for tomorrow so I can forget about it and be surprised by the winnings. Cant believe I am backing these two teams but oh well, surely they cant sink even lower....

Crusaders +16.5 into Sharks +7.5 @ 21/20

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1 month 4 days ago #29 by southpaw
Got to say these stupidly early kick offs for us in uk or sa are a massive turn off for a big punt. Just no ways I’m getting up to watch the first 2, at a push will get 2nd half of game 3.

Rain predicted at all 3 so a rare unders treble -

Drua game under 6.5 tries
Chiefs game under 7.5 tries
Blues game under 6.5 tries

Treble @ 5/1

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1 month 4 days ago #30 by ash190
Cheers to a killer start to the weekend with that bet hitting! Here's to more wins and good vibes ahead . . . .

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1 month 4 days ago #31 by Quill
Your draw arrives Brent, for entirely different reasons than your preview, but who cares!! :lol:

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1 month 4 days ago #32 by southpaw

southpaw wrote: Bit late to the rugby this weekend due to other commitments and haven’t even got a bet down. But I’m looking at that 43.5 line on Fiji and not surprisingly to some the overs punter in me is eyeing it up.

Need to see how bad conditions really are.


No major interest in the 2 early morning games but kicking myself for not sticking to gut on overs on Fiji. I put the game on from recorded, sunshine and knew immediately overs was a runner. I hope bookies got hammered on that overs line.

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1 month 4 days ago #33 by southpaw
Late call over 50.5 @ 10/11 at Eden Park.

Best drainage ground in world rugby and conditions ok live.

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1 month 4 days ago #34 by Brent Graham

Quill wrote: Your draw arrives Brent, for entirely different reasons than your preview, but who cares!! :lol:


Classic, like South I also recorded and could not believe the conditions

I was picturing a 12-12 draw LOL

Needed that one though

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1 month 4 days ago #35 by southpaw
Geez as I post the heavens open

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1 month 4 days ago #36 by Brent Graham
Sharks v Ulster Preview

Taking on the Oracle and The Mossman and going Sharks board at 14/10

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1 month 4 days ago #37 by southpaw
Seen the preview just come up and was eyeing our same so that’s a rubber stamp -

Stormers Edinburgh over 46.5 @ 20/21

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1 month 4 days ago #38 by Jameson

Jameson wrote: Its a game of two halves!


I don't recall ever losing a bet in the circumstance at the death with the Ospreys. Try line at his mercy and player pulls a hamstring ......

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1 month 4 days ago #39 by Brent Graham
All SA previews now up in URC section

Over 46.5 Stormers game
Under 50.5 Lions game
Bulls by 11-20 at 5/2

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1 month 4 days ago #40 by The Vann

Jameson wrote:

Jameson wrote: Its a game of two halves!


I don't recall ever losing a bet in the circumstance at the death with the Ospreys. Try line at his mercy and player pulls a hamstring ......


About summed up my day :sick:

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1 month 4 days ago - 1 month 4 days ago #41 by southpaw
Sharks Ulster over 46.5 @ 10/11

Back square for weekend after Blues Saders match, should have never got involved in overs but thankfully a lesser investment than yesterdays better result.

I’m looking for points in Cape Town and Durban today. Humidity looks ok for Durban standards.
Last edit: 1 month 4 days ago by southpaw.

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1 month 4 days ago #42 by Pablo
Terrible calls Glasgow and Reds ...

Reds today looked like the had a big hangover.

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1 month 3 days ago #43 by Laraxwell
Women's 6 Nations

France v Ireland

Bet :France -40pts @ Boylesports ( -42/43 Bet 365)

France won this fixture 3-53 in Cork last season despite a 22nd minute Red Card
5 of the Irish girls remain so lots of changes/ new players.
7's has been main focus of women's rugby in Ire so I expect a difficult day for the XV side.
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1 month 3 days ago #44 by Brent Graham
Adding over 46.5 Sharks game to my Sharks outright play - I see the money is coming for them, hope its on the mark

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1 month 3 days ago #45 by southpaw
Sharks game is hopeless. I think they’ve dragged Ulster down to their level as well. Writing this one off now as a loss.

France over 7.5 tries @ 8/10 to recover.

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1 month 3 days ago #46 by Roger Rabbit
It has been a cool day in cape town , we even had a bit or rain last night, but its not keeping me away from points. Firing Stormers over 30.5 with sunbet

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1 month 3 days ago #47 by Jameson
Scarlets +10 @ half time :-o

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1 month 3 days ago #48 by Roger Rabbit
easy winner and a good weekend so far . Bulls over 35.5 with sunbet @9/10

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1 month 3 days ago #49 by doubler
Japan League one: Toshiba Brave Lupus o 6.5 tries (1.83) , starts in 20mins

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1 month 3 days ago #50 by doubler

doubler wrote: Japan League one: Toshiba Brave Lupus o 6.5 tries (1.83) , starts in 20mins


5 first half tries then only 1 second half try by Toshiba in the 75th minute. There's bad beats and then there's terrible ones!

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