Super Rugby Rd 6, URC Week 13, Gallagher Week 14 29-31 March
- Brent Graham
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I even hit the draw in the Drua v Waratahs although not in the low scoring way I was expecting and backed the Sharks at 14/10 - what a pity I took a late call to go overs in that game as well giving most of the profits back.
Anyways feeling alot more positive heading into the new week
Here are my Super Rugby Projected Caps
Crusaders +8.5 v Chiefs
Waratahs -9.5 v Rebels
Drua -9.5 v Force
Moana Pasifika +25.5 v Blues
Highlanders +6.5 v Hurricanes
Reds -7.5 v Brumbies
URC handicap projections
Dragons -5.5 v Zebre
Leinster -12.5 v Bulls
Benetton -5.5 v Connacht
Sharks -8.5 v Edinburgh
Ospreys +0.5 v Lions
Stormers -9.5 v Ulster
Munster -18.5 v Cardiff
Scarlets +8.5 v Glasgow
There is also Gallagher Prem action
Lets see where the bookies come out
Have a good one!
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- Brad Breath
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Going to steam in if that line opens in Europe
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- grp11
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Just some stats for after 5 rounds of Super Rugby so far:
WIN PERCENTAGE
Home - 17/25 (68%)
Away - 8/25 (32%)
HANDICAP (LINE)
Home team covered handicap (line) - 16/25 (64%)
Away team covered handicap (line) - 9/25 (36%)
Teams who beat the handicap (line):
Reds - 4/5 (80%)
Hurricanes - 4/5 (80%)
Highlanders - 4/5 (80%)
Brumbies - 3/5 (60%)
Waratahs - 3/5 (60%)
Teams who lose the handicap (line):
Chiefs - 4/5 (80%)
Crusaders - 4/5 (80%)
Blues - 3/5 (60%
Drua - 3/5 (60%
Force - 3/5 (60%
Moana - 3/5 (60%
Rebels - 3/5 (60%
TOTAL POINTS
Unders - 15/30 (50%)
Overs - 15/30 (50%)
Teams (Overs):
Reds - 4/5 (80%)
Chiefs - 3/5 (60%)
Drua - 3/5 (60%)
Hurricanes - 3/5 (60%)
Rebels - 3/5 (60%)
Waratahs - 3/5 (60%)
Teams (Unders):
Blues - 4/5 (80%)
Highlanders - 4/5 (80%)
Brumbies - 3/5 (30%)
Crusaders - 3/5 (30%)
Force - 3/5 (30%)
Moana - 3/5 (30%)
Referees (Overs):
Nic Berry - 4/5 (80%)
James Doleman - 3/5 (60%)
James Mabey - 1/1 (100%)
Referees (Unders):
Ben O’Keefe - 4/4 (100%)
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- Brent Graham
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Crusaders +8.5 (+7.5) v Chiefs
Waratahs -9.5 (-10.5) v Rebels
Drua -9.5 (-11.5) v Force
Moana Pasifika +25.5 (+21.5) v Blues
Highlanders +6.5 (+10.5) v Hurricanes
Reds -7.5 (+0.5) v Brumbies
Top 3 all close, 4 points difference in games 4 and 5 and 8 points in Reds game - suspect Reds will start -3.5
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- Mossman
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Brent Graham wrote: WSB are out with Super Rugby lines and here is how they compare to mine
Crusaders +8.5 (+7.5) v Chiefs
Waratahs -9.5 (-10.5) v Rebels
Drua -9.5 (-11.5) v Force
Moana Pasifika +25.5 (+21.5) v Blues
Highlanders +6.5 (+10.5) v Hurricanes
Reds -7.5 (+0.5) v Brumbies
Top 3 all close, 4 points difference in games 4 and 5 and 8 points in Reds game - suspect Reds will start -3.5
Reds -3.5 is where I made this too.
Got into it at +3.5 and I see it's already at pickem.
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- Pablo
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After such a poor display in Perth they should bounce back this week. I'd put them slightly favourites so some value there.
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- southpaw
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- Brent Graham
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Dragons -5.5 (-6.5) v Zebre
Leinster -12.5 (-14.5) v Bulls
Benetton -5.5 (-5.5) v Connacht
Sharks -8.5 (-7.5) v Edinburgh
Ospreys +0.5 (-2.5) v Lions
Stormers -9.5 (-11.5) v Ulster
Munster -18.5 (-18.5) v Cardiff
Scarlets +8.5 (+7.5) v Glasgow
Nothing jumps out for me
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- Pablo
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Crusaders +7.5 ha @1.91 2u
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- Kirky
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Followed you for 2 units, and also took Crusaders W onto Waratahs W @ 3.88 for 2 units.Pablo wrote: Just read McKenzie won´t play this weekend soooooo I go straight into the wolf´s mouth
Crusaders +7.5 ha @1.91 2u
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- Pablo
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Weather looks horrible on Friday night so this line looks way to high in my opinion. Win or die match for both and only 7 matches left so no time to enjoy, just win.
Pitch of Armandie always looks terrible in bad conditions and I expect more of the same.
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- Brent Graham
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Set a reminder on You Tube
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- Pablo
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Penaud and Deportere out for sure (its what I've been told) and some others may rest. Lou -4 ha @1.68 2u looks valuable or even the overs if weather allows.
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- Kirky
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In my nightly ponderings over the last few days, I've put myself into the Crusaders camp trying to think of their reaction to how the Chiefs have disrespected them by leaving D-Mac at home.Kirky wrote:
Followed you for 2 units, and also took Crusaders W onto Waratahs W @ 3.88 for 2 units.Pablo wrote: Just read McKenzie won´t play this weekend soooooo I go straight into the wolf´s mouth
Crusaders +7.5 ha @1.91 2u
I can't think of a better motivation. It could drive them over the edge, and they must get a W soon.
Accordingly I've laid a bit more on them to win. Shortened to 2,70 from 3.25 on Tuesday - 2 units.
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- southpaw
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This to me is stand-out bet of weekend, will be my biggest handicap punt of weekend, and may also fire Canes pts when more lines out.
The Highlanders have been dogged to date but the lack of rotation and squad depth is going to catch up soon, they mostly same guys have been putting in the shift week after week. They have punched above their weight i feel in some matches, but like Moana last week, are overdue a poor match. The Canes had an easy runout last week, took foot off gas a bit, and get perfect conditions to suit their open game. With a few key players back i think they'll account for the Landers by a decent margin.
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- Pablo
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Pablo wrote: Just read McKenzie won´t play this weekend soooooo I go straight into the wolf´s mouth
Crusaders +7.5 ha @1.91 2u
Wallet inspection today by Johnny McNicholl
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- Roger Rabbit
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- Jameson
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Roger Rabbit wrote: My heart bleeds for anyone betting against the crusaders this morning. No Easter eggs in my house this weekend...
I went over 58.5 in live play - will 'reinvest' in overs on the next game if it comes down from 59 a bit in the 1st 10 mins .....
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- Roger Rabbit
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Jameson wrote:
Roger Rabbit wrote: My heart bleeds for anyone betting against the crusaders this morning. No Easter eggs in my house this weekend...
I went over 58.5 in live play - will 'reinvest' in overs on the next game if it comes down from 59 a bit in the 1st 10 mins .....
49.5 now and I'm worried if i go overs we will be without the roast lamb as well...will keep the powder dry until half time. Rebels like to score in the last 20 minutes
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- Jameson
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Roger Rabbit wrote:
Jameson wrote:
Roger Rabbit wrote: My heart bleeds for anyone betting against the crusaders this morning. No Easter eggs in my house this weekend...
I went over 58.5 in live play - will 'reinvest' in overs on the next game if it comes down from 59 a bit in the 1st 10 mins .....
49.5 now and I'm worried if i go overs we will be without the roast lamb as well...will keep the powder dry until half time. Rebels like to score in the last 20 minutes
I went over 50.5 but should have waited sob sob
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- Roger Rabbit
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Jameson wrote:
Roger Rabbit wrote:
Jameson wrote:
Roger Rabbit wrote: My heart bleeds for anyone betting against the crusaders this morning. No Easter eggs in my house this weekend...
I went over 58.5 in live play - will 'reinvest' in overs on the next game if it comes down from 59 a bit in the 1st 10 mins .....
49.5 now and I'm worried if i go overs we will be without the roast lamb as well...will keep the powder dry until half time. Rebels like to score in the last 20 minutes
I went over 50.5 but should have waited sob sob
Some sarcasm from Chiefie would cheer me up, i hope he's ok.
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- southpaw
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Better games to come for sure this weekend.
Any views on overs/conditions in Dublin tonight? Thinking both sides might play open.
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- Chiefie
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Roger Rabbit wrote:
Jameson wrote:
Roger Rabbit wrote:
Jameson wrote:
Roger Rabbit wrote: My heart bleeds for anyone betting against the crusaders this morning. No Easter eggs in my house this weekend...
I went over 58.5 in live play - will 'reinvest' in overs on the next game if it comes down from 59 a bit in the 1st 10 mins .....
49.5 now and I'm worried if i go overs we will be without the roast lamb as well...will keep the powder dry until half time. Rebels like to score in the last 20 minutes
I went over 50.5 but should have waited sob sob
Some sarcasm from Chiefie would cheer me up, i hope he's ok.
He’s thriving. Closed all my accounts and haven’t bet in 2 weeks. Am following what the guys are putting down here, looks like a few near and far misses! Actually quite fun just to watch for a change rather than cursing throughout.
Good luck out there fellas
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- Jameson
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- Brent Graham
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- Kirky
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It sure looks like my purple patch is over
And that's one of the reasons that God made beer
Good luck guys
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- Pablo
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- Chiefie
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Not sure what you’d call it, it’s definitely not rugby.
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- Pablo
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Pablo wrote: U45.5 agen-rouen @1.80 2u
Weather looks horrible on Friday night so this line looks way to high in my opinion. Win or die match for both and only 7 matches left so no time to enjoy, just win.
Pitch of Armandie always looks terrible in bad conditions and I expect more of the same.
Bfff red by one conversion
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- Pablo
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Its nice having Bulls +13 ha going down the sink because of a disgraceful refereeing.
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- Laraxwell
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Fingers crossed that The Force have turned the corner
Great win last wkend and N White back at 9
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- Kirky
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a cooking class ?Chiefie wrote: Currently watching women’s U18 6 nations of Scotland v Wales, it’s hilarious.
Not sure what you’d call it, it’s definitely not rugby.
Thanx Chiefie, something to laugh about amidst the destruction of my bankroll.
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- Roger Rabbit
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- Jameson
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Roger Rabbit wrote: Great call on the hurricanes gentleman!
I've gone Highlanders +35.
Hell of a scoreline at HT.
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- Brent Graham
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Sharks v Edinburgh
Edi +7.5
Ospreys v Lions
Over 46.5
Stormers v Ulster
Took some -11.5 but still interested at 12.5 and a points play likely to follow
Remaining URC plays (just interest really) are in this article
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- Jameson
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Jameson wrote:
Roger Rabbit wrote: Great call on the hurricanes gentleman!
I've gone Highlanders +35.
Hell of a scoreline at HT.
Trully un f@@king believable .................
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- Roger Rabbit
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- Experienced Novice
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Jameson wrote:
Jameson wrote:
Roger Rabbit wrote: Great call on the hurricanes gentleman!
I've gone Highlanders +35.
Hell of a scoreline at HT.
Trully un f@@king believable .................
Sickening. I had a very big punt Landers +33.5 at HT. I knew as soon as Gilbert missed the conversion, that the bet will be lost in dramatic fashion. The rest is history.
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- Quill
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Bet 1: Reds over 3.5 tries @1.72
Bet 2: Total Over 51.5 points @1.72
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- Laraxwell
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Laraxwell wrote: Force +11.5pts v Drua
Fingers crossed that The Force have turned the corner
Great win last wkend and N White back at 9
Disappointing
A week after scoring 40 v The Reds, this Farce team can't manage more than 13pts v 14 man Drua.
3 points v 14 men in the 2nd half
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- Roger Rabbit
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disaster first half, will need a miracle to get out of this.Roger Rabbit wrote: Conditions in Cape Town couldn’t be better, awesome atmosphere at the stadium - Stormers over 33.5 - 9/10
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- Jameson
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Roger Rabbit wrote:
disaster first half, will need a miracle to get out of this.Roger Rabbit wrote: Conditions in Cape Town couldn’t be better, awesome atmosphere at the stadium - Stormers over 33.5 - 9/10
Ref isnt helping the Stormers cause .....
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