Stage 4 of the 2026 Tour de France starts in Carcassonne and finishes 181.9 kilometres later in Foix. The profile suggests the sprinters may once again have to bide their time before their 1st realistic opportunity for stage glory. We take a look at the stage from a betting angle.
Stage 3 Review
I thought Stage 3 might go to the breakaway, and when an 18-man move established itself, I was initially optimistic they would stay clear.
In the end, however, the peloton, and UAE Team Emirates XRG in particular, had other ideas.
The race ultimately came down to what was effectively a reduced bunch sprint on the final climb. Unsurprisingly, Tadej Pogačar proved too strong, sprinting clear to beat Jonas Vingegaard by two seconds, with Richard Carapaz producing an impressive ride to finish third and Paul Seixas taking fourth.
Classification Update
Pogačar now wears the yellow jersey, sitting on exactly the same overall time as Vingegaard.
Remco Evenepoel is now 23 seconds back in third, Isaac del Toro is a further second behind in fourth, while Juan Ayuso rounds out the top five, 27 seconds off the lead.
The outright betting has reacted accordingly:
- Tadej Pogačar - 1.16 in from 1.22
- Jonas Vingegaard - 5.00
- Paul Seixas - 10.00
- 19.00 and bigger the remainder.
The battle for the Green Jersey also continues to develop.
Although Pogačar currently wears the jersey, Mads Pedersen strengthened his position by collecting valuable points at the intermediate sprint.
The Green Jersey betting now reads:
- Jasper Philipsen - 2.75
- Mads Pedersen - 3.50
- Jonathan Milan - 4.00
- Biniam Girmay - 5.00
- 7.00 and bigger the remainder.
In the King of the Mountains market, Pogačar remains favourite at 2.35, with Richard Carapaz the second favourite at 5.00.
Stage 4 Profile
Stage 4 includes one Category 4 climb, one Category 3 climb and two Category 2 climbs, with almost the entire route consisting of rolling terrain.
The first half of the stage should not prove overly selective, but things begin to get serious after the intermediate sprint when the riders tackle the Category 2 Col de Coudons, a climb of 10.7 kilometres averaging 5.5%.
Later in the day comes another Category 2 ascent, the Col de Montségur, measuring 6.9 kilometres at 6.6%, before a rolling run into Foix.
While this is not a summit finish, there is enough climbing to eliminate many of the pure sprinters.
What to Expect
Once again, I expect a sizeable breakaway to establish itself.
Unlike Stage 3, though, I believe this one has a genuine chance of making it all the way to the finish.
There is certainly a scenario where Mads Pedersen joins the break in an attempt to collect maximum points at the intermediate sprint before seeing how long he can survive over the later climbs.
Equally, Lidl-Trek could decide to control the race in an effort to set up Pedersen for the finish. Personally, I think that carries too much risk given the difficulty of the final two climbs, where he could easily be dropped before the finish.
With that in mind, I think this is another excellent opportunity for a strong breakaway rider to claim the stage, and that's the angle I'll be taking in the betting.
Stage 4 Betting
Stage Winner Odds
- Mads Pedersen - 4.00
- Mathieu van der Poel - 8.00
- Matej Mohorič - 13.00
- Romain Grégoire - 21.00
- Magnus Cort Nielsen - 21.00
- Maxime Van Gils - 21.00
- Jasper Philipsen - 21.00
- 26.00 and bigger the remainder.
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Verdict
I think Mads Pedersen is simply too short at 4.00 given the amount of climbing packed into this stage.
Similarly, while Mathieu van der Poel is always dangerous, he hasn't looked quite as comfortable on the climbs during the opening three stages as I expected.
Instead, I'll once again look towards riders capable of getting into the breakaway and then finishing strongly from a reduced group.
Suggested Bets
Dorian Godon – 26.00
Godon has had a relatively quiet Tour so far, but this profile should suit him perfectly. He climbs well enough to survive this terrain and possesses an excellent sprint should a small group arrive together.
Michael Matthews – 26.00
Matthews has built a career around winning exactly these types of stages. He handles rolling terrain exceptionally well, can climb with the stronger classics riders and remains one of the fastest finishers if the break stays away.
Disclaimer: Prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
