In this blog we will recap the international fixtures that took place on 8 and 9 November and look at all things betting related for next weekend fixtures which include England v New Zealand.
England my only highlight
Posted 16 Nov 09h26
Saturday was disappointing with the England win my only highlight. Wales were just awful and Australia crumbled like the top tennis biscuit in the 2nd half against Ireland.
My only hope of recovery is the overs in Scotland v Argentina
I am going to get next weeks blog up early as want to cap the games before the bookies.
BET: Wales v Japan
Posted 15 Nov 19h33
3 units Wales over 4.5 tries at 25/20 at Pokerbet
Italy let me down (well done Boks, what a win), but England delivered although the 15+ needed that conversion to land. I simply have to get more involved in this one and actually fancy the Welsh. Backing them to get 5 tries or more - only one beer in, I promise.
BET: A 22/1 speculative double!
Posted 15 Nov 14h30
0.5 unit Eng & NZL equal tries onto IRe & Aus equal tries at 22/1 at Betxchange
The action gets going soon and I am heavily invested in Italy over 17.5. If they get me off to a flyer, I’ll likely be back with more bets, but for now I’ve taken a nibble on England and New Zealand and Australia and India to score the same amount of tries at 22/1 at Betxchange. Enjoy the rugby and play well, I really have a good feeling this week, but history suggests that means very little!
BET: Ireland v Australia
Posted 15 Nov 10h20
4 units Under 47.5 points at 0.93/1 at Betxchange
1 unit Australia win at 3.6/1 at Betxchange
This handicap opened at Australia +13.5 (at least that’s the first line I saw). It was backed into +10.5, went back out to +12.5 on news that Skelton wouldn’t play, and has since come back into +10.5. The points line is 47.5.
There hasn’t been a winning margin of more than 9 points for either team going back nine matches to 2014, and under 47.5 would have arrived in the last five meetings. I like Australia on the handicap and would have loved an Australia +10.5 & under 47.5 combo, but I can’t find one, so instead I’m taking a small interest in the Aussies to win as I really like the side they’ve picked.
With rain around all day, the unders also appeals and is my main bet.
BET: France v Fiji
Posted 15 Nov 09h58
4 units France over 5.5 tries at 0.67/1 at Betway
The handicap has been reasonably steady all week. After opening -22.5, I’m now seeing -23 and -24.5 available on France. The points line is 58.5 and conditions look good.
France’s team points line is 41.5, which, if you assume they kick for the corner rather than take penalties, translates to six converted tries with no room for error. The price is below what I normally like to take, but I’m backing France to score at least six tries at 0.67/1. I may also throw this into a multiple or two.
BET: Wales v Japan
Posted 15 Nov
1 unit Rees-Zammit – 2 or more tries at 4/1 at Pokerbet
This may not be the biggest fixture of the weekend, but it’s one of the most important, with the winner securing the final place in the second tier of seedings for the next Rugby World Cup draw. Wales are –12.5 and although I’m leaning their way, I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger just yet after how poor they were last week.
I may yet get involved in point currently 52.5 (roof closed) but for now it’s a novelty interest on the returning Rees-Zammit, backing him to grab two or more tries at 4/1. If Wales click even marginally better than they did against Argentina, he should get opportunities out wide.
BET: England v New Zealand
Posted 14 Nov 22h37
4 units England to win at 0.93/1 at Betxchange
1 unit England 15+ at 5.8/1 at Betxchange
I was really hoping for an England plus, but the bookies were wide awake to it and England have traded as slight favourites for most of the week. They were impressive against Australia, and while the All Blacks have beaten Ireland and Scotland in successive weeks, I haven’t been overly impressed and I reckon they are there for the taking.
I’m on England to win, and I’m also taking a swing at a big England win. The total points line is 46.5, and with possible rain about (currently forecast after the match), I won’t be getting involved in the points markets at this point.
BET: Italy v South Africa
Posted 14 Nov 17h12
4 units Italy over 17.5 points at 17/20 at Hollywoodbets
This handicap opened at Boks –20.5, edged to –21.5, and has now settled at –18.5 after the team announcements. Italy will be full of confidence after their win over Australia, although historically they’ve often struggled to back up a big performance the following week.
The Springboks, meanwhile, have the luxury of making wholesale changes from the side that won in Paris, yet it’s still a formidable outfit. Conditions look decent enough and the Bok “B team”, for lack of a better phrase, does tend to concede more than the full-strength unit.
With Italy showing good attacking intent and the Boks likely to offer opportunities, I’m backing the hosts to reach 18 points or more.
BET: Scotland v Argentina
Posted 13 Nov 23h45
5 units Over 49.5 points at 17/20 at Pokerbet
This is the final match of the weekend but my first bet, as I feel the market is going to move. Nathan highlighted the over 49.5 on our rugby betting show The Handicap on Thursday night, and there are already signs that this line will edge into the 50s, for now, 49.5 is still available.
Handicap-wise the game opened Scotland -0.5 and is now -3.5, which is pretty much where I capped it (-2.5). With both sides capable of scoring and conceding, and conditions looking decent, I’m getting involved early before the points line shifts.
Betting Update - Italy Shorten
Posted 13 Nov 22h26
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Italy +18.5 v South Africa, Points 55.5 - bookies shorten Italy from +21.5 on back of team news
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England -1.5 v New Zealand, Points 46.5
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Wales -12.5 v Japan, Points 51.5
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France -23.5 v Fiji, Points 58.5
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Ireland -10.5 v Australia, Points 46.5
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Scotland -3.5 v Argentina, Points 49.5
Latest Betting – Autumn Internationals (Week 3)
Posted 11 Nov 22h28
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Italy +21.5 v South Africa, Points 55.5
Handicap has been fairly stable since it opened -
England -0.5 v New Zealand, Points 48.5
England went -1.5 but its back to a virtual choice game -
Wales -11.5 v Japan, Points 51.5
Betting stable, this is a crucial game for RWC rankings -
Ireland -12.5 v Australia, Points 48.5
Aussie backed from +13.5 but have edged back out with news that Skelton is out -
France -21.5 v Fiji, Points 58.5
Fairly table -
Scotland -3.5 v Argentina, Points 48.5
Opened -0.5 and money has come for the home team
Teams, Officials and Weather
Posted 11 Nov 22h20 will be updated as information comes out
Italy v South Africa – Saturday, 15 November, 14:40
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Turin
Lineups:
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex (captain), 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Ross Vintcent, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 David Odiase, 22 Martin Page-Relo, 23 Tommaso Allan.
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Ethan Hooker, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Marco van Staden, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Zachary Porthen, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Boan Venter
Replacements: 16 Gerhard Steenekamp, 17 Wilco Louw, 18 RG Snyman, 19 Ruan Nortje, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Weather: Mid teens, overcast but dry, humidity early 80's - click here for updates
Match Officials:
Referee: James Doleman (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), Jérémy Rozier (France)
TMO: Tual Trainini (France)
England v New Zealand – Saturday, 15 November, 17:10
Venue: Allianz Stadium, London
Lineups:
England: 15 Freddie Steward, Tom Roebuck, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Alex Coles, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie George, 1 Fin Baxter.
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Ben Spencer, 23 Marcus Smith.
New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Damian McKenzie.
Weather: Cool around 8 degrees, showers throughout day, humidity around 80% - click here for updates
Match Officials:
Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Luc Ramos (France), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Wales v Japan – Saturday, 15 November, 19:40
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Lineups:
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Olly Cracknell, 7 Alex Mann, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Nicky Smith
Replacements: 16 Liam Belcher, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Taine Plumtree, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins
Japan: 15 Yoshitaka Yazaki; 14 Kippei Ishida, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Charlie Lawrence, 11 Tomoki Osada; 10 Seungsin Lee, 9 Naoto Saito; 8 Faulua Makisi, 7 Kanji Shimokawa, 6 Jack Cornelsen; 5 Warner Deans (captain), 4 Epineri Uluiviti; 3 Keijiro Tamefusa, 2 Kenji Sato, 1 Kenta Kobayashi
Replacements: 16 Shodai Hirao, 17 Sho Furuhata, 18 Shuhei Takeuchi, 19 Harry Hockings, 20 Tyler Paul, 21 Kenta Fukuda, 22 Shinya Komura, 23 Kazuma Ueda
Weather: Roof to be closed, will confirm
Match Officials:
Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Assistant referees: Nic Berry (Australia), Anthony Woodthorpe (England)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (England)
Ireland v Australia – Saturday, 15 November, 22:10
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Lineups:
Ireland: 15 Mack Hansen, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Caelan Doris (captain), 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Paddy McCarthy.
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Andrew Porter, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Nick Timoney, 20 Cian Prendergast, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Bundee Aki.
Australia: 15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Filipo Daugunu, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Harry Potter, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Tom Hooper, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Andrew Kellaway.
Weather: Temp around 9 degrees, rain early in day but should clear, some cloud, humidity mid 70's - click here for updates
Match Officials:
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant referees: Pierre Brousset (France), Adam Leal (England)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
France v Fiji – Saturday, 15 November, 22:10
Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux
Lineups:
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Nicolas Depoortere, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt (captain), 7 Anthony Jelonch, 6 Oscar Jegou, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Charles Ollivon, 3 Regis Montagne, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros
Replacements: 16 Maxime Lamothe, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Thomas Laclayat, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Hugo Auradou, 21 Paul Boudehent, 22 Nolann Le Garrec, 23 Emilien Gailleton
Fiji: 15 Salesi Rayasi, 14 Selestino Ravutaumada, 13 Kalaveti Ravouvou, 12 Josua Tuisova, 11 Jiuta Wainiqolo, 10 Caleb Muntz, 9 Simione Kuruvoli, 8 Viliame Mata, 7 Elia Canakaivata, 6 Pita Gus Sowakula, 5 Temo Mayanavanua, 4 Isoa Nasilasila, 3 Mesake Doge, 2 Tevita Ikanivere (captain), 1 Eroni Mawi
Replacements: 16 Zuriel Togiatama, 17 Haereiti Hetet, 18 Tim Hoyt, 19 Mesake Vocevoce, 20 Kitione Salawa, 21 Sam Wye, 22 Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, 23 Sireli Maqala
Weather: Cloudy, temp around 12 degrees, humidity mid 80's - click here for updates
Match Officials:
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
Assistant referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Morné Ferreira (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Scotland v Argentina – Sunday, 16 November, 17:10
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Lineups:
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Rory Hutchinson, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (captain), 11 Kyle Steyn, 10 Finn Russell (vice-captain), 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Gregor Brown, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 D’Arcy Rae, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Josh Bayliss, 20 Matt Fagerson, 21 Jamie Dobie, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Duhan van der Merwe.
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Rodrigo Isgro, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Geronimi Prisciantelli, 9 Simon Benitez Cruz, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 7 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 6 Santiago Grondona, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Pedro Delgado, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Mayco Vivas
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Thomas Gallo, 18 Francisco Coria Marchetti, 19 Efrain Elias, 20 Pablo Matera, 21 Agustin Moyano, 22 Santiago Carreras, 23 Justo Piccardo
Weather: Overcast, cold at 4 degrees, no rain forecast, humidity high 70's - click here for updates
Match Officials:
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Luke Pearce (England)
TMO: Olly Hodges (Ireland)
Handicaps are out
Posted 10 Nov 09h20
Here are the early handicaps for the 4 games I projected - bookies in brackets
Italy +16.5 (+20.5) v South Africa - fair enough, SA team will be interesting
England +4.5 (-0.5) v New Zealand - I think I was just hoping for an England plus
Ireland -8.5 (-10.5) v Australia
Scotland -2.5 (-0.5) v Argentina
Wales (-13.5) v Japan
France (-22.5) v Fiji
Handicap Projections 15-16 November
Posted 09 Nov 13h03 updated 22h19
Below my handicap projections for next weekend, these will be compared with the bookmakers lines and may signal an early strike
Italy +16.5 v South Africa
England +4.5 v New Zealand
Ireland -8.5 v Australia
Scotland -5.5 -2.5 v Argentina
Autumn Internationals – Weekend Betting Recap
Ireland 41–10 Japan
My Bet: Stockdale first-half try scorer at 2/1 – ❌
Ireland were comfortable without ever fully cutting loose. Stockdale never got the early chance I needed and the 1st-half try angle didn’t land. The damage was small.
Scotland 17–25 New Zealand
My Bet: Taukei’aho last NZ try scorer at 12/1 – ❌
A small speculative interest. The reserve hooker didn’t get the late maul opportunity although he was in position a couple of times. No strong views on the match overall but did have Scotland to win in an acca and when they came back from 0-17 to 17-17 I thought the match was their for the taking.
England 38–18 Fiji
My Bet: England over 40.5 points – ❌
The big frustration of the weekend. England had long spells of pressure but couldn’t turn it into points. Overs never looked properly alive and it anchored a couple of multis. The bet was live as the hooter sounded but sadly England elected to kick the ball out.
Italy 26–19 Australia
My Bet: Tribet – Either team by 7 or less at 1.87/1 – ✅
A nice winner. The game always felt set up for a tight one and Italy not only stayed inside the 7 but won outright. A great win for Italy.
France 17–32 South Africa
My Bet: Under 53.5 points – ✅
Spot-on. A high-intensity test where defence and physicality dominated. The Boks were excellent especially given they were down to 14 men for just over 40 minutes and the unders arrived reasonably comfortably.
Wales 28 Argentina 52
My Bet: Wales to win at 3.1/1 – ❌
The less said about this bet the better