The 2026 Currie Cup heads into the final round of group action this weekend, with the battle for the remaining semifinal places going down to the wire. In this blog, we recap Week 6 from a betting angle, look at the latest standings and keep an eye on all things betting-related ahead of Week 7.
Bet: Boland v Griquas
Posted 30 August 10h22
Bet: 2.5 units (1–5) – Over 59.5 points at 0.94/1 with BetXchange.
This is a very interesting matchup given the current table, which I touched on in the post below.
At the end of the day, Boland have to go for the win, which means they could conceivably take a few three-pointers along the way, whereas Griquas simply need a losing bonus point out of this game.
Conditions look to be good in Wellington, and while I'm leaning towards Boland for the win at around 15/10, all signs are pointing me towards a points play.
I'm not going to try to recoup all of the weekend's losses, but I'll take a fair sized bet that we get 60 points or more in the game.
Over 59.5 points at 0.94/1 is the play.
It is Lions or Boland for the final spot
Posted 30 Aug 08h37
We have only one game to go in the Currie Cup regular season, but there are still a couple of matters that have to be decided.
The Cheetahs are now top of the table, one point ahead of Griquas. With a far superior points difference. Griquas realistically need just a single bonus point from this match to finish top.
The Lions are currently fourth on 20 points, while the Sharks, on 18, are out. The Pumas are on 16 points and can move ahead of the Lions with a victory. Any victory will be enough, as even without the bonus point they would go through on the grounds of having won more games than the Lions.
After a poor day of punting, I'm going to apply my mind to this game, where the Pumas are currently +3.5 and the total points line is set at 59.5. The Griquas mindset will be interesting.
Bet: Pumas v Cheetahs
Posted 29 August 08h31
Bet: 2 units (1–5) – Cheetahs to win & over 58.5 points at 9/4 with World Sports Betting.
This is an important game for both teams, with the Cheetahs looking to keep themselves in the running for top spot on the log and the Pumas desperate to secure a semifinal spot.
There's a chance it could develop into a scrap, but I think in what should be perfect conditions we're going to get points here. I also fancy the Cheetahs to get the job done, so rather than playing the match winner and points separately, I'm going to step out of my comfort zone and combine the two.
Cheetahs to win and over 58.5 points at 9/4 is the play.
Currie Cup Betting Update
Posted 29 August 08h00
It didn't take me long into the Lions v Stormers game to realise that I was on the wrong side, and the Stormers were hopeless on the night. They had no attacking bite, took terrible decisions when they did have a chance of scoring, and I'm not sure I've seen a more stagnant rolling maul in my life.
That was my main bet of the day, and although I pulled back a bit on the Bulls unders, I went to bed pretty grumpy on Friday.
Saturday is another day, though, and looking at the betting, the Pumas are still +1.5, with a points line of 57.5, at home to the Cheetahs. Tomorrow's game sees Boland now into +3.5 from +5.5 against Griquas, with no points lines on offer yet.
It's worth having a look at the updated Currie Cup table, given that this is the final round of league matches. There's no change at the top at this point, with Griquas and the Cheetahs both on 26 points, but the Lions have moved into third on 20 points, with the Sharks on 18 points.
The interesting positions are fifth and sixth. The Pumas are fifth on 17 points, one point behind the Sharks, while the Boland Cavaliers are sixth on 16 points, two points behind the Sharks.
If the Pumas win, they are guaranteed a spot in the final four. If they lose with two bonus points, they won't be 100% guaranteed their spot, while a defeat with only one bonus point would most likely see them miss the playoffs, with their points difference currently only four better than the Sharks.
The Cavaliers will know exactly what they need to do going into the final match of the weekend, but they will most likely have to beat Griquas to progress.
I'll be back later this morning with a bet on today's game.
Bet: Sharks XV v Bulls XV
Posted 28 Augustn14h14
Bet: 2 units (1–5) – Bulls under 23.5 points at 0.86/1 with BetXchange.
There has been money for the Sharks this week, with the line moving from an opening -11.5 to -14.5 or -15.5, depending on your bookmaker.
Oracle was bullish on the Sharks on last night's edition of The Handicap, and I have to say I'm in agreement with him here. I think the Sharks should put this Bulls team to the sword.
The total points line is 62.5, and although conditions don't look too bad, I certainly won't be backing the overs in Durban on a Friday night. In fact, given that I like the Sharks on the handicap, I find myself leaning towards a Bulls team-total unders play.
I'm looking for the Bulls to score 23 points or less.
Bet: Lions v Stormers XXIII
Posted 28 August 13h41
Bet: 3 units (1–5) – Stormers over 3.5 tries at 15/20 with PokerBet.
There has been money for the Lions, from an opening call of -3.5 to the current -6.5. As posted earlier in the blog, I actually liked the Stormers in this game and already have them as the first leg of a multiple with the Cheetahs.
At the risk of getting too involved in the game, I'm going to climb in with another bet.
The total points line is 58.5, and I think both sides have to go looking for bonus-point wins. It's possible that either could win and still not make the playoffs, and a bonus point would certainly improve their chances.
That said, if the betting for the weekend is anything to go by, the likelihood is that the winner of this game will progress to the semifinals.
In any event, back to my bet. I think both the Stormers and Lions will be pushing for tries, and I'm happy to take the Stormers to score four tries or more at 15/20.
Money for the Lions
Posted 28 August 07h56
I definitely called the Lions v Stormers handicap wrong when I made the Stormers favourites. In fact, money has come for the Lions, who have moved from -3.5 to -6.5.
This means I didn't get the best value on the Stormers price, but until the result is in the frame, the bet is still live. I've also learned from those occasions when I've called the market correctly that getting the best of the price certainly doesn't guarantee a winner!
There's also been money for the Sharks, who have moved from -11.5 to -14.5 against the Bulls. On last night's edition of The Handicap, our rugby betting show, Oracle proclaimed Sharks -14.5 as his best bet.
The Pumas are still +1.5 against the Cheetahs. Based on my early handicap, I'm leaning very much towards the visitors in this one.
There's also been some money for Griquas, who are now -5.5, having been around -3.5 when I first saw the betting.
I'll be sending out my weekly betting newsletter later this morning. If you're not subscribed yet, you can sign up in the top right-hand corner of the page on desktop or click here to join my never-ending battle against the bookmakers.
Handicaps are up
Posted 27 Aug 08h25
We have Currie Cup handicaps and here is how they compare to my projections - bookies lines in brackets
Lions +5.5 (-3.5) v Stormers XXIII
Sharks XV -9.5 (-11.5) v Blue Bulls XV
Pumas +9.5 (+1.5) v Cheetahs
Boland +5.5 (+3.5) v Griquas
Big differences in the Lions and Pumas games and I am going to an early outright win double
BET: 1 unit (1-5) Stormers win and Cheetahs win at 3.1/1 at WSB
Week 7 Projected Handicaps
Posted 24 Aug 08h01
Below my projected handicaps for week 7
Lions +5.5 v Stormers XVIII - the winner of this game has a good chance to progress as long as both the Pumas and Boland don't win. It will be interesting to see if any URC players are drafted in given the importance of the game.
Sharks XV -9.5 v Blue Bull XV - the Sharks are unlikely to progress even with a 5 pointer but going into this game they will still have a chance.
Pumas +9.5 v Cheetahs - The Pumas could lose with bonus points and still progress but they will likely need to win to guarantee safe passage and the Cheetahs will want to win and go top at least for a day.
Boland +5.5 v Griquas - Griquas will likely need to win to finish top and Boland will need to win to get into the last 4
As usual I find these games tough to handicap and lets see what the bookies think.
Week 6 Review
Pumas 14 Griquas 38
Griquas were well backed to start narrow favourites in this one, and they duly delivered with a comfortable victory against a toothless Pumas side.
I was on over 58.5 points, and although the game got within a score of the line towards the end, it never really looked a runner in a scrappy encounter.
Bulls XV 26 Stormers XXIII 50
My early play was to take the Stormers to win at just under even money, and I later added over 8.5 tries at 7/10.
Both bets arrived in some style as the Stormers ran out comfortable winners. The Bulls have had an awful season and are the only side without a mathematical chance of making the semifinals.
Sharks XV 22 Lions 22
I was originally leaning towards over 54.5 points but talked myself out of that one and instead ended up backing the Lions to win at 8/10.
It was a back-and-forth match, but when the Lions scored in the final minute with a very kickable conversion to come, I thought I was going to grab the win.
The conversion was missed, though, and the match finished in a draw.
Cheetahs 33 Boland Cavaliers 24
I liked the overs in this one and specifically the Cheetahs, who I also fancied on the handicap at -8.5.
Rather than taking the handicap, I went for Cheetahs over 37.5 points, and somehow they butchered a try with around four minutes remaining.
To be fair, the bet never really looked like winning until the final 10 minutes, but having got into that position, I was very disappointed not to land the spoils. That result ended up bringing me back to square on all my rugby betting for the weekend.
Table Update
This is the final round of group action, with the top four teams progressing to the semifinals.
Griquas and the Cheetahs have already guaranteed their semifinal places, with Griquas leading the standings on 26 points, one clear of the Cheetahs on 25. They are guaranteed to finish first and second, although the order is still to be decided.
The battle for the other two semifinal positions remains wide open.
The Pumas are third on 17 points, with Boland Cavaliers and Stormers XXIII both on 16. The Lions are on 15, while the Sharks XV have 13 and still have a mathematical chance of making the last four.
Only the Blue Bulls, on five points and without a win this season, are out of contention.
Week 7 Fixtures
Friday 28 August
Lions v Stormers XXIII – 17:05, Ellis Park Stadium, Johannesburg
Sharks XV v Blue Bulls XV – 19:15, Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
Saturday 29 August
Pumas v Cheetahs – 14:00, Mbombela Stadium, Mbombela
Sunday 30 August
Boland Cavaliers v Griquas – 15:00, Boland Stadium
I'll be back with my handicap projections for the final round of Currie Cup action.
