France host England in the final action of the 2026 Six Nations in Paris on Saturday and when it comes to retaining the title the French have their destiny in their own hands.
Bet: France v England
Posted 12 March 19h25
3 units (1-5) under 62.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
At the start of the Six Nations this was touted as the Grand Slam decider. That has not turned out to be the case, but it will still decide the Championship. France will almost certainly need a win to take the title, and there is a small chance they may need a bonus point as well. England, meanwhile, will be desperate to break a three match losing streak.
The current handicap is France -15.5, with the market moving from an opening line of -12.5. My interest here, however, is in the points line of 62.5, which looks high.
There is a perception that the final weekend of the Six Nations produces high scoring matches and there have certainly been some big totals over the years. However, in the last two seasons two of the three matches played in the final round have actually been lower scoring.
These sides played out a thriller in 2024, with France winning 33-31, but looking through the recent head to head meetings I cannot find another match in France that has threatened a total close to the current line.
There is rain forecast on Saturday and while it is currently expected to clear before kick off, I still anticipate a greasy surface. For me this total should be closer to 56.5.
Add to that the likelihood that France may only need to win the match, while England could be happy to turn this into a tight and physical contest, and the unders becomes a strong early play.
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France v England, Saturday 14th March, Paris, KO 22:10 (South African time)
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (GRU)
Assistant Referees: Andrew Brace (IRFU), Hollie Davidson (SRU)
TMO: Brett Cronan (RA)
Weather Forecast – Paris
France:
Coming into the final round of matches and France top the standings ahead of Scotland. Both nations have 16 log points but France have a far superior points difference (+79 to +21). With 14 log points Ireland are third and they could still have a say if they beat Scotland in Dublin earlier in the day.
French hopes of a Grand Slam were dashed in Edinburgh in Round 4 when they lost a remarkable game to Scotland 50-40. Les Bleus were 9.5 pont favourites on the handicap but they never led and at one stage they were 47-14 down. However in a game which saw 13 tries scored France rallied late to score 6 of them and pick up a bonus point which kept them top of the standings.
In Round 3 France hosted Italy in Lille and they came out on top 33-8, a margin just shy of where the bookmakers main handicap line had settled. Lez Bleus scored 5 tries, 4 of which were converted by Ramos.
Les Bleus ran in 8 tries in their 54-12 hiding of Wales in Cardiff in Round 2, covering a handicap that had settled at 31.5 points.
France came into their Round 1 clash with Ireland in Paris as favourites, trading at around -13.5 points on the main handicap line. They scored the first 29 points of the game and went on to win 36-14.
In the Six Nations outright betting Hollywoodbets have France priced up as 1 / 5 favourites to retain the title
Results and Fixtures: R1 Ireland (h) won 36-14, R2 Wales (a) won 54-12, R3 Italy (h) won 33-8, R4 Scotland (a) lost 50-40, R5 England (h)
England:
England come into the game with 1 win and 3 defeats against their name and they are fifth in the standings with 6 point, 3 behind fourth placed Italy and 5 better off than rock bottom Wales who meet in Cardiff earlier in the day.
England were already out of contention ahead of their Round 4 clash with Italy in Rome, a game which they started 8.5 points favourites on the bookmakers main handicap line. It was a tight match which saw the lead change hands several times but it was Italy who eventually claimed a historic first win over the English 23-18.
Despite starting their Round 3 home fixture against Ireland as 11.5 point favourites England crashed and burned 42-21, scoring 3 tries and conceding 5. Ireland scored the first 22 points of the match in the first 30 minutes and went on to register their highest score at Twickenham
In Round 2 England were in Edinburgh for a clash with the Scots, they started the game as 7.5 point favourites but they came unstuck and eventually went down 31-20.
England began their tournament at home to Wales and they easily covered the main handicap line which settled in the region of 27.5 points with a 48-7 victory.
Results and Fixtures: R1 Wales (h) won 48-7, R2 Scotland (a) lost 31-20, R3 Ireland (h) lost 21-42, R4 Italy (a) lost 23-18, R5 France (a)
Recent Head to Head
Feb 2025 6N Twickenham England 26-25 France
Mar 2024 6N Lyon France 33-31 England
Mar 2023 6N Twickenham England 10-53 France
Mar 2022 6N Paris Francee 25-13 England
Mar 2021 6N Twickenham England 23-20 France
Team News
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Theo Attissogbe, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Antoine Dupont (captain), 8 Charles Ollivon, 7 Temo Matiu, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Dorian Aldegheri, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros
Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Demba Bamba, 19 Hugo Auradou, 20 Mickael Guillard, 21 Joshua Brennan, 22 Baptiste Serin, 23 Emilien Gailleton
England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Tommy Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Seb Atkinson, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Ben Spencer, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Guy Pepper, 6 Ollie Chessum, 5 Alex Coles, 4 Maro Itoje (captain), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie Georgie, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smit
The Betting
Average early show, subject to change
France -15.5 points at 9/10
England +15.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Brent Graham's betting angle and plays for this week’s will follow here
Bets: To follow
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