The European season reaches a critical stage this weekend with the Investec Champions Cup and EPCR Challenge Cup semi-finals taking centre stage. In this blog we look at the 4 semi-finals from a betting angle.
Bets: Bordeaux v Bath
Posted 03 May 11h47
0.5 units (1-5) Thomas Du Toit 1st Bath Try Score at 16/1 at Pokerbet
1 unit Bordeaux by 1-12 points at Pokerbet (draw no bet)
The handicap has been stable at -10.5 to -12.5 Bordeaux all week and it is currently -11.5 at Betxchange.
The points line has come in from 61.5 to 59.5 as there are some stormes about.
That weather info has me a bit nervous about my 18/1 newsletter acca that finishes on Bath over 24.5 points - click here to join my mailing list or sign up top right on desktop
This should be a cracker of a match between 2 excellent and fully loaded teams.
I am not getting too involved but will go for a narrow 1-12 home win and a speculator on the try scoring prop Thomas Du Toit to get Baths 1st.
I have a feeling this could go down to the wire
Bet: Montpellier v Dragons
Posted 03 May 11h26
1 unit (1-5) Dragons +14.5 at 2.15/1 at WSB
There has been money for the Dragons who are in from +25.5 to +22.5 and even +20.5 in places.
I don't know much about this Montpellier team but they have made a number of changes and this Dragons side has impressed me of late.
I am going to keep my stake small and will go with an extended handicap play that they don't lose by more than 2 scores.
The total points line is 57.5 and I am leaning Dragons over 17.5 but with some cloud around I am going to stay out for now at any rate
Bet: Ulster v Exeter
Posted 02 May 13h37
2 units under 6.5 tries at 1/1 at Pokerbet
Ulster are -2.5 and the points line is down to 50.5 from 53.5 as a result of forecast rain.
I agree with the unders backers here but in a semi-final where 3 pointers may well be taken rather than kicks to the corner I prefer the under 6.5 tries play.
Bet: Leinster v Toulon
Posted 2 May 13h32
1 unit (1-5) Leinster win by 1-12 inclusive at 18/10 at Betxchange
The handicap is still hovering around the -10.5 Leinster level and total points has come in from 55.5 to 52.5 as a result of showers forecast before and during the game.
I am not convinced by this Leinster team and while I expect the win I think it could be tight.
Bets to follow
Posted 02 May 08h28
Below are the latest handicaps and points
Leinster -10.5 v Toulon, Points 53.5 - unders in from 55.5
Bordeaux -11.5 v Bath, Points 61.5 - Bath in from +12.5
Ulster -2.5 v Exeter, Points 51.5 - points in from 53.5
Montpellier -25.5 v Dragons, Points 56.5
Betting Update
Posted 30 April 18h01
Here are the latest handicaps, I hope you can join us live tonight for THE HANDICAP at 21h00
Leinster -10.5 v Toulon, Points 55.5
Bordeaux -12.5 v Bath, Points 62.5
Ulster -1.5 v Exeter
Montpellier -25.5 v Dragons
ROAD TO THE SEMI-FINALS
The quarter-finals delivered a mix of tight contests and dominant performances.
In the Champions Cup,
- Bath edged Northampton (43-41) in a thriller coming from well behind to win
- Toulon beat Glasgow (22-19) in a game where they started underdogs
- Leinster thrashed Sale (43-13)
- Bordeaux Bègles beat Toulouse (30-15) coming from behind and assisted by a Toulouse red card
In the Challenge Cup,
- Exeter edged Benetton (44-41)
- Dragons beat Zebre (35-32)
- Montpellier beat Connacht (45-22)
- Ulster beat La Rochelle (41-24)
INVESTEC CHAMPIONS CUP – SEMI-FINALS
Leinster vs RC Toulon
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Leinster looked strong in their quarter-final win but the morale would have taken a knock after a shock away loss to Benetton in the URC.
Toulon arrive in strong form and showed real composure in their win over Glasgow.
Betting
Leinster 6/25
Draw 26/1
RC Toulon 19/5
Handicap: Leinster -9.5
Union Bordeaux Bègles vs Bath Rugby
Stade Atlantique Bordeaux Métropole
Bordeaux have been one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the competition and backed that up with a strong win over Toulouse. Playing at home again is a big advantage.
Bath showed real resilience in their narrow win over Northampton and have proven they can grind out results in knockout rugby.
Betting
Bordeaux Bègles 21/100
Draw 25/1
Bath Rugby 21/5
Handicap: Bordeaux -10.5
EPCR CHALLENGE CUP – SEMI-FINALS
Ulster Rugby vs Exeter Chiefs
Ulster come into this off a strong win over La Rochelle and look well balanced heading into the semi-final. They rested players this past weekend in a big URC loss to Munster.
Exeter edged a tight one against Benetton and bring plenty of knockout experience, but have been inconsistent this season.
Betting
Ulster 93/100
Draw 24/1
Exeter Chiefs 34/33
Handicap: Ulster -0.5
Montpellier vs Dragons
Montpellier were dominant in their quarter-final and are clear favourites here.
The Dragons are the surprise package and will need a massive performance to stay competitive. They beat Zebre away in the URC in a repeat of their quarter-final win.
Betting
Montpellier 1/50
Draw 59/1
Dragons 16/1
Handicap: Montpellier -24.5
OUTRIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT
Champions Cup Winner
Union Bordeaux Bègles 13/20
Leinster 2/1
Bath Rugby 22/3
RC Toulon 16/1
Challenge Cup Winner
Montpellier 3/5
Exeter Chiefs 7/2
Ulster Rugby 33/10
Dragons 63/1