Round 12 of the Super Rugby Pacific gets underway with five matches across Friday and Saturday the 1st and 2nd of May, as the competition heads into the business end of the season. The race for playoff positions is heating up and in this blog we look back at the round 11 results, forecast the round 12 handicaps and then put up bets as gameday approaches.
Update: Reds v Brumbies
Posted 02 May 11h11
Phew the overs just arrives and I am feeling alot better about things after todays action.
I am not going to get further involved in this game though and will sit on my early Reds win play at 5/6
The current handicap is Reds -3.5 with the points line at 54.5 and with showers about I would be going for under 54.5 if not already involved.
I will be back with the Round 13 blog on Sunday
Bet: Moana Pasifika v Blues
Posted 02 May 08h23
2.5 units over 9.5 tries at 17/20 at Pokerbet
The Drua made me sweat for the minus but I am in a better frame of mind after that one.
The Blues are -28.5 and the points line is 62.5 and I fancy the overs here although the weather forecast does not look as good as it did earlier in the week.
I don’t think we will see 3 pointers taken so for the 63 to land I basically need 9 converted tries or more likely 10 tries with 6 converted.
Going overs on tries seems like a better option.
Bet: Drua v Highlanders
Posted 01 May 23h51
2 units Drua -4.5 at 0.94/1 at Pokerbet
I am still reeling from the 2 games this morning which I could hardly have got more wrong.
I fancy the Drua for a comfortable win and am taking the -4.5 to hopefully start the comeback.
Bet: Waratahs v Western Force
Posted 30 April 23h16
3 units (1-5) over 52.5 points at 9/10 at Betxchange
This handicap opened -2.5 and has moved to -4.5 Waratahs which is very close to my handicap projection of -5.5.
I agree with some of the comments in this weeks THE HANDICAP that the Force are big runners but once again my focus is on the points lines.
The model is also strong on the Force plus.
The weather looks good and I am following The Mossman on the overs although head-to-head stats are not supportive with the last 4 going unders – call this a gut feel though.
Bet: Hurricanes v Crusaders
Posted 30 April 23h07
2.5 units (1-5) under 60.5 points at 0.87/1 at WSB
The Hurricanes have been backed from -8.5 to -13.5 and the Crusaders are missing a few players. 13.5 is a big start though and after chatting to The Mossman on The Handicap I am focusing on the points line of 60.5.
Conditions look good but this looks high for a New Zealand derby and I expect some quiet spells not in terms of action but with defence dominating.
Unders would have arrived in the last 5 head to heads between the sides.
Betting Update and Points Lines
Posted 30 April 17h54
Below the latest betting, early handicaps in brackets.
Join us live tonight at 21h00 SAST for THE HANDICAP our rugby betting show
Hurricanes -13.5 (-9.5) v Crusaders, points 60.5
Waratahs -4.5 (-2.5) v Force, points 52.5
Drua -4.5 (-5.5) v Highlanders, points 56.5
Moana Pasifika +28.5 (+24.5) v Blues, points 62.5
Reds -3.5 (-1.5) v Brumbies, points 54.5
Money has come for the Brumbies, Blues, Waratahs and Hurricanes
Friday bets will be posted after tonights show
Early Handicaps & an Early Bet
Posted 27 April 08h12
Below are the arly lines at Betxchange in brackets next to my projections
Hurricanes -8.5 (-9.5) v Crusaders
Waratahs -5.5 (-2.5) v Force
Drua -3.5 (-5.5) v Highlanders
Moana Pasifika +21.5 (+24.5) v Blues
Reds -7.5 (-1.5) v Brumbies
They are all within 3 points other than the Reds game and based on current form I am going for an early play.
Early Bet: 3 units (1-5) Reds win at 0.86/1 at Betxchange
Round 12 Handicap Projections
Posted 26 April 23h04
Here are my handicap projections which will be compared to the bookies lines on Monday
Hurricanes -8.5 v Crusaders
Waratahs -5.5 v Force
Drua -3.5 v Highlanders
Moana Pasifika +21.5 v Blues
Reds -7.5 v Brumbies
ROUND 11 RESULTS (Super Round – Christchurch)
Crusaders 35 – 20 Waratahs – the punters who got on the Crusaders -13.5 profited (they started -18.5) but there was no joy for me on Crusaders over 38.5 with a late try getting chalked off.
Hurricanes 45 – 12 Brumbies – The Hurricanes started -14.5 and delivered in style. I was on Canes over 5.5 tries which arrived comfortably.
Blues 36 – 33 Reds – The Blues were backed to -14.5 from -12.5 but the Reds pushed them all the way. I had Blues over 5.5 tries but the 6th try never came.
Highlanders 27 – 17 Moana Pasifika – The Highlanders were -16.5 and against Pasifika I fancied points and went over 63.5. I am pleased I never got up for this one.
Chiefs 42 – 22 Fijian Drua – my early strike on the Chiefs -23.5 failed to land. I started watching when they were 25 points up and threatening to run away with things but credit to the Drua for finishing strong.
Overall a poor punting round for me
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
The Chiefs (36 pts) and Hurricanes (36 pts) remain locked at the top of the table although the Hurricanes have a game in hand.
The Blues (33 pts) sit in 3rd, while the Crusaders (26 pts) have climbed into 4th after their win over the Waratahs.
The Brumbies (25 pts) and Reds (23 pts) currently round out the top six, but both sides are under pressure with the Highlanders (20 pts) and Waratahs (19 pts) still in the mix, while the Fijian Drua (16 pts) and Western Force (14 pts) are still mathematically alive but running out of time.
At the foot of the table, Moana Pasifika (4 pts) continue to struggle with just a single win all season.
Round 12 Fixtures
FRIDAY
Hurricanes vs Crusaders
A massive clash at the top of the table as the Hurricanes host the Crusaders. The Hurricanes come in off a dominant win over the Brumbies and have been one of the most consistent sides this season.
The Crusaders, meanwhile, have stayed in touch despite some surprise defeats on the road.
Waratahs vs Western Force
The Waratahs return home looking to bounce back after their loss to the Crusaders. They cannot afford to slip up if they want to make the playoffs.
The Force have shown improvement this season but remain just outside serious contention. They missed the Super Round and are coming off a bye.
SATURDAY
Fijian Drua vs Highlanders
The Drua return home after some decent showings on the road including a win in Canberra. The match is in Ba where they beat the Brumbies in March.
The Highlanders will see this as a must win to keep their playoff hopes alive, but this is never an easy trip.
Moana Pasifika vs Blues
Moana continue to struggle and were well beaten again last week although they landed the plus handicap.
The Blues edged a thriller against the Reds and look to be peaking at the right time.
This game is being played in North Harbour.
Reds vs Brumbies
An all-Australian clash with big playoff implications. The Reds pushed the Blues all the way last week but came up short.
The Brumbies were well beaten by the Hurricanes a week after losing to the Drua at home and they will be desperate for a response.
This is a crucial game for both sides in the race for the top six.
I will be back later in the day with handicap projections
