Italy host England in the Six Nations in Rome on Saturday, pre-tournament England were fancied to go well but after back to back defeats they have slipped out of contention.
Bet: Italy v England
Posted 07 March 22h05
0.5 unit (1–5) England last try scorer Marcus Smith at 18/1 at Pokerbet
1 unit England winning margin 1–12 (5 way) at 35/20 at BetXchange
There was early money for Italy and I understand the line was in the teens at early doors, but it was backed into +7.5. It now appears to have settled around Italy +8.5, with the points line at 52.5.
I am expecting Italy to stay in touch, but England should still be able to get the win and a 1–12 England victory is my call.
I also can’t resist a small nibble on Marcus Smith to score England’s last try at a big price, with the expectation that he could enter the game late from the bench when the match opens up.
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Full preview below
Italy v England, Saturday 7th March, Rome, KO 18:40 (South African time)
Referee: Luc Ramos (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Pierre Brousset (FFR), Sam Grove-White (SRU)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
Weather Forecast – Rome
Italy:
Italy have a record of 1 win and 2 defeats and they have picked up 5 log points so far which puts them in fifth place behind England on points difference and 4 points better off than Wales.
Round 3 saw Italy head to Lille to take on France and they finished beaten 33-8 never really getting in a blow after trailing 19-8 at half time. The margin of defeat was a touch lower than the main handicap line.
In Round 2 Italy threatened to surprise Ireland in Dublin, leading 10-5 at half time but they eventually went down 20-13 and came away with a losing bonus point.
Italy were 8.5 point underdogs for their clash with Scotland in Rome in Round 1 and they didn’t need any of it as they came out on top 18-15.
In the Six Nations outright betting Hollywoodbets have Italy priced up at 11/2 to finish with the wooden spoon.
Results and Fixtures: R1 Scotland (h) won 18-15, R2 Ireland (a) lost 20-13, R3 France (a) lost 33-8, R4 England (h), R5 Wales (a)
England:
England come into the game with 1 win and 2 defeats against their name and they are fourth in the standings with 5 points and no longer in contention for the title or triple crown.
Despite starting their Round 3 home fixture against Ireland as 11.5 point favourites England crashed and burned 42-21, scoring 3 tries and conceding 5. Ireland scored the first 22 points of the match in the first 30 minutes and went on to register their highest score at Twickenham
In Round 2 England were in Edinburgh for a clash with the Scots, they started the game as 7.5 point favourites on the bookmakers main handicap line and looking to extend their winning streak to 13 matches but they came unstuck and eventually went down 31-20.
England began their tournament at home to Wales and they easily covered the main handicap line which settled in the region of 27.5 points with a 48-7 victory, scoring 7 tries in total including a first half hat trick for Henry Arundell.
Results and Fixtures: R1 Wales (h) won 48-7, R2 Scotland (a) lost 31-20, R3 Ireland (h) lost 21-42, R4 Italy (a), R5 France (a)
Recent Head to Head
Mar 2025 6N Twickenham England 47-24 Italy
Feb 2024 6N Rome Italy 24-27 England
Feb 2023 6N Twickenham England 31-14 Italy
Feb 2022 6N Rome Italy 0-33 England
Feb 2021 6N Twickenham England 41-18 Italy
Team News
Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (captain), 5 Andrea Zambonin,4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti, caps
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Federico Ruzza,20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 Alessandro Fusco, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Tommaso Allan
England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Tommy Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Seb Atkinson, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Ben Spencer, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Alex Coles, 4 Maro Itoje (captain), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie Georgie, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smith
The Betting
Average early show, subject to change
Italy +8.5 points at 9/10
England -8.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Brent Graham's betting angle and plays for this week’s will follow here
Bets: To follow
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