The 2025/26 EPCR Challenge Cup reaches its conclusion on Friday the 22nd of May when Montpellier take on Ulster at San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Montpellier are looking to cap a dominant Challenge Cup campaign with silverware, while Ulster have produced a superb knockout run to reach the final after narrowly missing out on the URC playoffs.
Bet: Montpellier v Ulster
Posted 21 May 22h38
2 units Ulster win at 5/2 at World Sports Betting
While Ulster may be disappointed to have missed out on the URC playoffs, there is little doubt that they have had one eye on this Challenge Cup final for some time.
I was very impressed with their semi-final victory over Exeter and, while Montpellier will be no easy task , the French side did struggle at times to get past the Dragons in their own semi-final.
Ulster are not quite at full strength because of injuries, but from what I gathered on Thursday night’s episode of The Handicap, our rugby betting show, Montpellier are stretched in the front row.
Based on what I saw from Montpellier against the Dragons, I think Ulster have a very realistic chance of pulling off the upset and lifting the trophy.
The points line is sitting at 51.5 and, with temperatures expected to still be around 30 degrees despite the evening kickoff, I’m happy to leave the totals market alone for this one.
Team News & Officials
Posted 21 May 22h22
Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Assistant Referees: Andrea Piardi (Italy), Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Montpellier: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Gabriel N’Gandebe, 13 Arthur Vincent, 12 Auguste Cadot, 11 Donovan Taofifenua, 10 Domingo Miotti, 9 Ali Price, 8 Billy Vunipola (c), 7 Alex Becognee, 6 Lenni Nouchi, 5 Tyler Duguid, 4 Florian Verhaeghe, 3 Mohamed Haouas, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Enzo Forletta
Replacements: 16 Lyam Akrab, 17 Baptiste Erdocio, 18 Wilfrid Hounkpatin, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Marco Tauleigne, 21 Leo Coly, 22 Thomas Darmon, 23 Jon Echegaray
Ulster: 15 Mike Lowry, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 James Hume, 12 Jude Postlethwaite, 11 Zac Ward, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Nathan Doak, 8 Juarno Augustus, 7 Nick Timoney (c), 6 Dave McCann, 5 Cormac Izuchukwu, 4 Harry Sheridan, 3 Tom O’Toole, 2 Tom Stewart, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 James McCormick, 17 Eric O’Sullivan, 18 Scott Wilson, 19 Charlie Irvine, 20 Bryn Ward, 21 Conor McKee, 22 Jake Flannery, 23 Ethan Mcilroy
Weather and Latest Betting
Posted 21 May 10h41
The weather in Bilbao looks clear and dry but amazingly temps of around 30 degrees are forecast for a night time kick off.
Click here for the hourly forecast at Time and Date
There has been money for Montpellier who have moved from -7.5 to -8.5 and the points line is 52.5.
I am eyeing up a bet on this one and should have it out tonight.
Join us on our live betting show "The Handicap" tonight at 21h00 SAST - we will talk Super Rugby Pacific and the 2 big finals - click here to watch or set a reminder
This preview will be updated with betting moves, team news, weather and suggested bet(s) throughout the week.
Betting - Posted 17 May
Montpellier 3/5
Draw 25/1
Ulster 33/10
Handicap: Montpellier -7.5
ROUTE TO THE FINAL
Montpellier
Montpellier were outstanding throughout the pool phase, topping Pool 1 with a perfect four wins from four matches. They scored 119 points and conceded just 77 while finishing ahead of Zebre Parma, Connacht and Ospreys.
Their knockout run began with a crushing 53-13 victory over Perpignan in the Round of 16, a game in which they scored nine tries and completely overwhelmed their fellow French side.
In the quarter-finals they beat Connacht 45-22 in Montpellier, again showing their attacking depth and forward power. Connacht did create opportunities, but Montpellier simply had too much class and physicality.
The semi-final against Dragons RFC was a much tighter affair than many expected. Montpellier eventually came through 18-12 in a tense contest at the GGL Stadium, relying on defence and discipline after the Welsh side pushed them all the way.
Montpellier have looked the strongest and most balanced side in the competition from the opening round and fully deserve their place in the final.
Ulster
Ulster topped Pool 3 with three wins from four matches, finishing ahead of Stade Français, Exeter Chiefs and Cardiff. They scored 141 points and conceded only 55 during the pool phase, underlining the quality of both their attack and defence.
Their knockout campaign started with a hard-fought 28-24 win over Ospreys in Belfast before producing one of the performances of the quarter-finals in a 41-24 victory over La Rochelle.
The semi-final saw Ulster host Exeter Chiefs at the Affidea Stadium, and they controlled large parts of the game on the way to a 29-12 win. Their pack laid the platform and their defence again stood up under pressure.
Ulster have built momentum nicely through the knockout rounds and arrive in Bilbao as dangerous underdogs.
Early Thoughts
Montpellier have looked like the standout side in the Challenge Cup for most of the season and they will rightly start favourites. Their forward pack has dominated most opponents and they have consistently converted pressure into tries, but the Dragons pushed them hard which will give Ulster fans hope.
Ulster, have been extremely resilient throughout the knockout stages and their defensive structure has improved dramatically. They also have enough attacking quality to trouble Montpellier if they can generate quick ball and stay disciplined. They bowed out of the URC this past weekend but no doubt had one eye on this final.
The handicap around Montpellier -7.5 feels about right at first glance. Montpellier probably deserve favouritism based on the overall body of work, but Ulster have repeatedly shown they are capable of hanging around in big knockout matches.
I will return later in the week with any notable betting moves and a closer look at the points markets.
