Round 11 of Super Rugby Pacific is upon us following another action-packed weekend which included a massive upset and a game that went into extra time. We look at the latest results, how the table is shaping up, project the round 11 handicaps and share some bets as the week progresses.
Bet: Highlanders v Moana Pasifika
Posted 25 April 15h58
2 units (1-5) over 63.5 points at 10/11 at Betxchange
The Highlanders are -16.5 and the points line is 63.5 but I am not sure it is high enough for a Moana game played under a roof.
Update: Chiefs v Drua
The line has not moved as I expected and has been stable at Chiefs -23.5. I took an early strike on the Chiefs having handicapped this game at Chiefs -31.5 although I must confess I forgot it was a Super Round and was capping as though they were at home.
The points line is 67.5 which is a bit on the high side but I am going to let my early Chiefs minus bet ride here.
Bet: Blues v Reds
Posted 25 April 00h00
Bet: 2 units (1-5) Blues over 5.5 tries at 12/10 at Pokerbet
The Blues sit 3rd on the table and are -12.5 against a Reds side that is coming off a bye week after beating the Crusaders at home.
The total points line is 56.5 under the roof and in a game where I am battling to form any firm views I am looking to the model which is pointing me towards Blues over 33.5 points.
I am going to go with an even more ambitious play and take Blues over 5.5 tries at 12/10.
Bet: Hurricanes v Brumbies
Posted 24 April 23h49
Bet: 3 units (1-5) Hurricanes over 5.5 tries at 15/20 at Pokerbet
The Hurricanes will feel like they let the Chiefs back into the game last week and I am expecting a strong bounce back against a Brumbies side that was stunned by the Drua at home in a game where they started -23.5.
The points line is 62.5 but I am focusing on the Hurricanes and am backing them to score at least 6 tries at a price slightly shorter than I would normally take.
The model has the Hurricanes by 12 and 58 points so no strong fancies.
Bet: Crusaders v Waratahs
Posted 23 April 23h37
2 units (1-5) Crusaders over 40.5 points at 0.93/1 at Pokerbet
1st up a confession - I never realised it was the Super Round when I priced up my handicap projections. For this game of course it makes no difference as the Crusaders are playing at home and in a new under roof stadium.
The money has come with the handicap -18.5 from -13.5 and although they have been poor in their last 2 games I am in alignment with the punters already down that they will rise to the occassion and win well.
I expect this game to be a good watch and rather than the handicap I am going overs on Crusaders points.
Against New Zealand opposition the Tahs have conceded 59 at home to the Canes, 35 at home to the Blues and 42 away to the Chiefs and thats compelling enough evidence for me.
Round 11 Handicaps are out
Posted 20 April 10h05
Below are the early handicaps for round 11 in brackets next to my projections
Crusaders -14.5 (-13.5) vs Waratahs
Hurricanes -11.5 (-12.5) vs Brumbies
Blues -9.5 (-8.5) vs Reds
Highlanders -17.5 (-16.5) vs Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -31.5 (-23.5) vs Fijian Drua
The top 4 are all within a point but there is an 8 point difference in the Chiefs game.
This looks like an overreaction to the Drua win in Canberra and I am going to take stock of the -23.5 in the belief that if it moves it will do so in my direction.
BET: 3 units (1-5) Chiefs -23.5 at 0.93/1 at Betxchange
Handicap Projections for Round 11
Here are my handicap projections for this weekend
Crusaders -14.5 vs Waratahs
Hurricanes -11.5 vs Brumbies
Blues -9.5 vs Reds
Highlanders -17.5 vs Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -31.5 vs Fijian Drua
ROUND 10 RESULTS
Blues 47 v 40 Highlanders – Blues were -15.5 and I was on the Highlanders under19.5 which was never a runner
Waratahs 29 v 14 Moana Pasifika – The Waratahs were -21.5 and I took the under 65.5 based on conditions
Chiefs 22 v 17 Hurricanes – this finished 17-17 and delivered on the either team by 6 or less Tribet play. The Chiefs were marginal favourites at kick off
Brumbies 28 v 33 Fijian Drua – I took Brumbies -19.5 early in the week and the line moved to 23.5 but the Drua pulled off one of the upsets of the season
Western Force 31 v 26 Crusaders – I fancied the Force to win but missed the price and went for a HT/FT play Force/Crusaders and typically it went the other way with the Force coming back to win
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
The Chiefs (31 pts) have moved to the top of the table following their win over the Hurricanes and now lead on points difference.
The Hurricanes (31 pts) have a game in hand and remain right there in 2nd despite their loss, while the Blues (29 pts) are close behind in 3rd after a high-scoring win over the Highlanders.
The Brumbies (25 pts) hold 4th spot but will be disappointed after slipping up against the Drua, while the Reds (22 pts) and Crusaders (21 pts) round out the top six.
Just outside the playoff places, the Waratahs (19 pts) have given themselves a chance with a win last weekend and they have a game in hand over the Crusaders, while the Fijian Drua (16 pts) remain in the hunt for a top 6 finish after a big result away from home.
The Highlanders (16 pts) and Western Force (14 pts) will need a strong run to stay in contention, while Moana Pasifika (4 pts) remain anchored at the bottom amidst news that their Super Rugby tenure could be over.
ROUND 11 FIXTURES
Friday 24 April 2026
Crusaders vs Waratahs (09:35)
Saturday 25 April 2026
Hurricanes vs Brumbies (07:05)
Blues vs Reds (09:35)
Sunday 26 April 2026
Highlanders vs Moana Pasifika (04:00)
Chiefs vs Fijian Drua (06:30)
I will be back tonight with my handicap projections for round 11