Round 16 of the United Rugby Championship is upon us and with just three rounds remaining including this one, the playoff race is heating up with the top eight teams qualifying. We look at the latest results, how the table is shaping up, and have a go at predicting the handicaps before sharing bets later in the week.
Handicap Projections for Round 16
Here are my handicap projections for this weekend – I suspect I will be well out on a few of these as I don’t have a real feel for what team selections we will see
Cardiff Rugby -8.5 vs Ospreys
Edinburgh +2.5 vs Sharks
Zebre Parma -4.5 vs Dragons
DHL Stormers -3.5 vs Glasgow Warriors
Lions -10.5 vs Connacht
Munster -7.5 vs Ulster
Scarlets +12.5 vs Vodacom Bulls
Benetton +16.5 vs Leinster
ROUND 15 RESULTS
Edinburgh 31 v 30 Zebre – Edinburgh were -18 and narrowly averted a huge upset
Ulster 21 v 29 Leinster – Ulster were -5.5 but were well beaten and my under 49.5 play just missed
Dragons 7 v 47 Bulls – Bulls started -14.5 having moved from 11.5 and they delivered for punters with a big win. I went with Dragons under 16.5 which was a comfortable winner.
DHL Stormers 24 v 33 Connacht – The Stormers were -21.5 and looked well in control at one stage. I never got involved beyond a last try scorer play which never arrived
Lions 54 v 12 Glasgow Warriors – The Oracle said the -7.5 Lions was missing a digit on Thursdays show and he was spot on. I got this horribly wrong with a Glasgow ML play.
Scarlets 24 v 28 Cardiff Rugby – I had thrown in the towel and thank goodness as would have been on Scarlets -1.5. They also looked well in control of this and let it slip.
Benetton 15 v 45 Munster – Munster were -2.5 for this one and blew Benetton away
Ospreys 21 v 17 Sharks – I liked the under 49.5 here which would of arrived but I never got involved in a game where the Sharks started slight favourites and simply had to win.
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
At the top, the Glasgow Warriors (55 pts) remain 1st despite their heavy loss.
The Stormers (51 pts) and Leinster (51 pts) are now level in 2nd and 3rd, with Leinster building momentum at the right time of the season.
The Lions (48 pts) move into 4th after a dominant win, while Ulster (47 pts) and Munster (46 pts) remain firmly in the playoff positions.
The race for the final qualifying spots is extremely tight. Cardiff (46 pts) and the Bulls (45 pts) currently occupy 7th and 8th respectively.
Just outside the top eight, Connacht (44 pts) are right on the cut line and their win over the Stormers has kept their playoff hopes very much alive.
Further back, the Ospreys (34 pts) and Sharks (34 pts) look to be running out of time, while the rest of the field is effectively out of contention.
With so little separating teams around the playoff positions (4 points between 4th and 9th), every match now carries significant weight.
ROUND 16 FIXTURES
Friday 24 April 2026
Cardiff Rugby vs Ospreys
Edinburgh vs Sharks
Zebre Parma vs Dragons
Saturday 25 April 2026
DHL Stormers vs Glasgow Warriors
Lions vs Connacht
Munster vs Ulster
Scarlets vs Vodacom Bulls
Benetton vs Leinster
I will be back later today with handicap projections for Round 16.
