We head into Round 14 of Super Rugby Pacific with the playoff race tightening up nicely and several sides now running out of opportunities to force their way into contention. In this blog we will focus on the betting angle.
Bet Two: Blues v Hurricanes
Posted 16 May 08h36
2 units (1-5) under 56.5 points at 0.92/1 at BetXchange
I’m going to be watching this game and have decided to extend my involvement a little further.
The points line is not badly set by any means, but in such an important fixture I do think we are going to get periods where the match becomes very tactical and develops into a bit of an arm wrestle.
History does not give us much help here with an even split fo overs and unders at this line.
I’m taking the unders and hope that we get a couple of quiet 10 minute spells
Bet: Force v Reds
Posted 16 May 08h11
1 unit (1-5) Force by 1-12 points at 2.15/1 at Betxchange
Money has come for the Force who were +1.5 when I 1st looked at the betting and are -3.5 at the time of writing. They need to win to keep their faint playoff hopes alive and the Reds can almost book their top 6 spot with a victory here.
Conditions look good in Perth and the points line looks well set at 55.5.
The Reds are missing a few players and I am leaning to them on the handicap but this should be a tight game and I will bet that they don't win by more than 12.
Bet: Blues v Hurricanes
Posted 16 May 00h46
1.5 units (1-5) either team by 7 points or less at 1.43/1 at BetXchange
The Blues are +4.5 at home in Auckland and the total points line is set at 56.5.
I can see this game developing into a titanic struggle and I’m not especially confident on either the handicap or the main points market.
That being said, I do expect a close contest and I’m going to back neither side to win by more than seven points.
These New Zealand derby matches are often decided late and with both teams still having plenty to play for, I’m expecting a high-intensity encounter that stays competitive throughout.
In the earlier game, the Drua are -9.5 at home to the Waratahs with the points line sitting at 52.5. There is some rain forecast and, while I do have a feeling we could still get points in that match, I’m going to stay out of the betting.
If pushed, I would lean slightly towards the Drua on the handicap, but I’m not strong enough on the game to get involved.
Bet: Chiefs v Highlanders
Posted 14 May 23h26
2 units (1-5) under 57.5 points at 10/11 at BetXchange
I handicapped this game Chiefs -14.5 and, at the time of writing, the market has Chiefs at -17.5.
The Chiefs are not quite at full strength and that number just feels a bit too big for a New Zealand derby. Having said that, I have very little confidence in this Highlanders outfit and I’m not especially keen to get involved on the handicap.
Instead, I’m going to focus on the points line where I think the unders is the right side, although this is by no means my strongest bet of the weekend.
Conditions are starting to get colder in New Zealand and that often brings dew into play during night games. With humidity levels forecast in the 80s, I’m hoping handling becomes difficult at some stage and that this one turns scrappy for periods of the match.
Round 14 Teams, Match Officials and Latest Betting
Posted 13 May 2307
The teams are out and you can view them on the SRP website
Here are the latest handicaps and points lines
Chiefs -17.5 v Highlanders, Points 57.5
Fijian Drua -9.5 v Waratahs, Points 51.5
Hurricanes -4.5 v Blues, Points 57.5
Western Force -1.5 v Reds, Points 55.5
Round 14 Early Handicaps
Posted 11 May 08h50
The early lines at Betxchange in brackets next to my projections
Chiefs -14.5 (-17.5) vs Highlanders
Fijian Drua -4.5 (-5.5) vs Waratahs
Blues +3.5 (+4.5) vs Hurricanes
Western Force +2.5 (+1.5) vs Reds
All within a point other than the Chiefs v Highlanders which is a 3 point difference - no early moves for me
Round 14 Handicap Projections
Posted 10 May 18h26
Here are my handicap projections for round 14 and I will compare them to the bookmakers tomorrow.
Chiefs -14.5 vs Highlanders
Fijian Drua -4.5 vs Waratahs
Blues +3.5 vs Hurricanes
Western Force +2.5 vs Reds
ROUND 13 RESULTS
Crusaders 36-20 Blues – The Crusaders started -5.5 and my bet on the Blues to win was in trouble a long way out
Reds 21-31 Chiefs – The Chiefs started -5.5 but my biggest play of the weekend was under 58.5 which looked like trotting up but almost lost after a late burst of points
Highlanders 31-26 Waratahs – The Waratahs came from well down to beat the handicap of +7.5 but I was greedy here and backed them to win at 12/5
Moana Pasifika 17-50 Hurricanes – The Hurricanes started -30.5 and delivered the handicap and my bet of Moana over 16.5 snuck home
Brumbies 32-15 Western Force- The Brumbies were -5.5 and I took a small interest in the 1-12 at 18/10 but the Force were well beaten in the end
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
The Hurricanes remain top with 45 points after another dominant attacking display. They now hold a five-point cushion over the Chiefs, who moved to 40 points with their win over the Reds.
The Blues stay 3rd on 38 points despite losing in Christchurch, while the Crusaders climbed to 4th with 32 points and look increasingly dangerous after a slow start to the season.
The Brumbies sit 5th on 29 points and remain well placed, while the Reds (11 games played) round out the current top six on 27 points.
Outside the playoff positions with 3 rounds remaining, games played in brackets):
- Highlanders: 24 pts (12)
- Waratahs: 21 pts (11)
- Fijian Drua: 20 pts (11)
- Western Force: 18 pts (11)
Moana Pasifika remain anchored at the bottom.
ROUND 14 FIXTURES
Chiefs vs Highlanders
Fijian Drua vs Waratahs
Blues vs Hurricanes
Western Force vs Reds
I will be back with my projected handicaps tonight