We only have two regular season rounds of Super Rugby Pacific to go, and there are still playoff spots up for grabs. In this blog, we look at all things betting-related.
Bet: Hurricanes v Highlanders
Posted 23 May 08h17
2 units Highlanders over 17.5 points at 10/11 at WSB
The Hurricanes have virtually secured top spot on the table and a victory, or even just a bonus point, should be enough to finish the job.
When I first started looking at this game, I expected the Highlanders to already be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. As I write this though, with the Reds trailing Moana Pasifika, they still have a very unlikely outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs.
There is obviously still a good possibility that they will be out by kickoff, but either way I’m expecting a decent performance from the visitors.
I’m not going to back them on the +23.5 handicap, but I do think this could turn into another high-scoring game.
I missed the 56.5 total points line that went into the newsletter accumulator, but I still want involvement in that sort of angle and will instead focus on the Highlanders team total.
The hope is that they can contribute enough to the scoring to get themselves to at least 18 points.
Bet: Moana Pasifika v Reds
Posted 23 May 01h05
2 units Reds -16.5 at 19/20 at BetXchange
This is a game where I’ve struggled a little to come to a firm conclusion, but in the end I do think the Reds will come out with the mindset of chasing a bonus point victory.
That effectively means they need to win by at least three tries and, assuming at least one conversion goes over, that should be enough to see this handicap arrive.
Moana Pasifika are always capable of contributing to the scoring and making things uncomfortable, but the Reds simply have far more to play for and should arrive with plenty of urgency.
I’m not entirely sure I’ll still be awake for this one as, at the time of writing, I’m only just getting home from a fairly hectic night out.
Still, the call is for the Reds to get the job done and I’ll be back early on Saturday morning with my Hurricanes v Highlanders pick.
The points line is 64.5 and while tempted by the overs the weather is a concern.
Bet: Force v Drua
Posted 22 May 15h09
3 units (1-5) Force over 5.5 tries at 2.08 at Pokerbet
The Western Force are -14.5 favourites at home to the Fijian Drua and, sadly for the Perth side, I fully expect them to be out of playoff contention by the time this game kicks off if the Reds beat Moana Pasifika earlier in the day.
The points line is 55.5.
The Force have actually had a decent season and, as Nathan pointed out on last night’s episode of The Handicap, we should still get a strong performance from them in front of their home fans.
Conditions are expected to be good and, while the Force have lost on their last two away trips to Fiji, their home record against the Drua is excellent.
The last two meetings in Perth saw the Force win 52-15 in March 2025 and 48-10 in May 2024.
Rather than get involved with the handicap, I initially looked towards the Force points market, which was sitting at 34.5 during the show before edging up to 35.5.
Having looked more closely at the available markets though, I actually prefer the Force total tries play.
At better than even money, I’m happy to back the Force to score at least six tries. If you assume penalties are not going to play a major role - which is very much my view, then they would effectively need six tries anyway to clear the 35.5 points line, as five converted tries would still leave them just short.
Bet: Waratahs v Brumbies
Posted 21 May 22h26
1.5 units Brumbies win and under 54.5 points at 43/20 at Hollywoodbets
As mentioned previously, I’m in a slightly sticky position in this game as I already have a position on the Waratahs to win the match, but the markets never really moved the way I expected them to.
A big reason for that is the injury situation, with the Waratahs carrying a lengthy list of absentees while the Brumbies are close to full strength.
This is a hugely important game for both sides. The Brumbies can secure their playoff place with a victory, while the Waratahs can overtake them and keep their own hopes alive with a win.
The Waratahs were impressive away to the Drua last week, but they have had to make the trip back home and now face a Brumbies side coming off the bye.
The Mossman was very confident on the Brumbies on this week’s episode of The Handicap, our rugby betting show, and with rain expected in Sydney, I think we could end up with a fairly low-scoring encounter.
This play is effectively a bit of a hedge against my earlier Waratahs position, although there is obviously the very real danger that both bets could go belly-up.
Bet: Crusaders v Chiefs
Posted 21 May 22h07
2.5 units Crusaders win at 1.98/1 at Pokerbet
I handicapped this game Crusaders +2.5, which was where the early line opened before money arrived quickly for the home side and pushed them into slight favouritism.
Looking at the team selections, that move is not surprising at all and I’m particularly interested to see Will Jordan back for the Crusaders.
Nathan was bullish on the Crusaders on The Handicap, our rugby betting show, and I’m going to follow him - along with plenty of other punters, in backing the home side here.
The points line looks a touch high at 57.5, although historically these sides have produced a mixture of high-scoring encounters and very tight affairs in important matches.
From a motivation perspective, the Chiefs will obviously be keen to keep themselves in the hunt for a top-of-the-table finish, but that looks unlikely and I suspect the Crusaders may just be the hungrier side given the importance of securing home playoff advantage.
In what should be a massive atmosphere in Christchurch, I’m backing the Crusaders to get the job done.
Betting Update
Posted 21 May 22h02
Below the latest handicaps and points
Crusaders -0.5 v Chiefs, Points 57.5
Brumbies -3.5 v Waratahs, Points 54.5
Reds -15.5 v Moana Pasifika, Points 64.5
Hurricanes -21.5 v Highlanders, Points 56.5
Western Force -14.5 v Fijian Drua, Points 57.5
Money for the Crusaders from +2.5 and my early move on the Waratahs looks to be a mistake and I sense line is going to move out now.
Because I took a straight win bet getting out of this one is not going to be easy and I am going to sleep on it.
The Handicap Live tonight at 21h00
Posted 21 May 10h07
The Mossman will be joining me live at 21h00 on "The Handicap" to talk through the weekends Super Rugby Pacific fixtures from a betting angle
Set a reminder or watch live on You Tube
Round 15 Early Handicaps
Posted 18 May 10h21
Below are the early handicaps in brackets next to my projections
Crusaders +2.5 (+2.5) vs Chiefs
Waratahs -4.5 (+3.5) vs Brumbies
Moana Pasifika +16.5 (+16.5) vs Reds
Hurricanes -19.5 (-22.5) vs Highlanders
Force -9.5 (-13.5) vs Drua
A 7 point difference in the Waratahs game and I am going to take an early position
Bet: 3 units (1-5) Waratahs win at 1.42/1 at Betxchange
Round 15 Handicap Projections
Posted 17 May 18h34
Below my handicap projections which will be compared with the bookies on Monday
Crusaders +2.5 vs Chiefs
Waratahs -4.5 vs Brumbies
Moana Pasifika +16.5 vs Reds
Hurricanes -19.5 vs Highlanders
Force -9.5 vs Drua
Round 14 Results
Chiefs 42-12 Highlanders – The Chiefs started -17.5 and cruised home in the 2nd half. My bet was on the unders at 57.5 and despite a late scare it came home.
Drua 35-50 Waratahs – The Drua were backed from -4.5 to -9.5 and thank goodness I sat this one out.
Blues 24-47 Hurricanes – I expected a close game but the Blues who started +4.5 were blown away. My bet was under 57.5 which looked good up until around the 30th minute but was dead early in the 2nd half.
Force 19-14 Reds – The Force started -3.5 and edged a close game. I was on the Force by 1-12 at 33/20 so was relieved when the final whistle sounded.
Table Update
The Hurricanes have cemented their spot at the top of the table and are currently on 50 points after 12 matches, five points ahead of the Chiefs, who have also played 12.
The Blues are secure in a top four finish, but only have one game left to play, and the Crusaders currently round out the top four.
There are six teams that qualify for the playoffs and currently in fifth and sixth are the Brumbies and Reds on 29 and 28 points respectively, both with two games left to play.
The Waratahs are just behind them on 26 points and the Highlanders are on 24, but only have one match left remaining.
The Force on 22 points, as well as the Drua on 20, are mathematically still in the hunt, but both are very unlikely to feature in the playoffs.
Round 15 Fixtures
Friday 22 May
Crusaders vs Chiefs
Waratahs vs Brumbies
Saturday 24 May
Moana Pasifika vs Reds
Hurricanes vs Highlanders
Force vs Drua
I will be back later today with my handicaps
