Round 2 of Super Rugby Pacific comes off the back of an eventful opening weekend that delivered close games, big swings in momentum, and a reminder that this competition rarely follows the script early in the season. In this blog we will keep an eye on the betting and also get a few bets down as kick offs approach.
Giving back (to the bookies)
Posted 22 Feb 08h26
Saturday was disappointing and Fridays profits were given back to the bookies. I had intended to get a bet down on the Crusaders v Brumbies game but was at a 50th and clean forgot - I was leaning Brumbies plus but no idea what I would have ended up punting.
I will be back with the Round 3 blog and some handicap projections later today.
Bet: Force v Blues
Posted 21 Feb 09h16
1.5 units under 56.5 at 10/11 at Betxchange
The handicap is Force +8.5 and points are set at 56.5.
Conditions look clear and humidity is low but there is some wind about and that together with the Forces habit of retaining possession but battling to score is enough to lean me towards the unders.
Bet: Highlanders v Chiefs
Posted 21 Feb 06h56
2 units Over 53.5 points at 0.88/1 at Betxchange
This handicap is +7.5 Highlanders pretty close to where I set it. I give the Highlanders a fighting chance of winning but am going to got for the points line and over 53.5 instead.
Last weeks clash against the Crusaders never really got going but it still finished within a score of landing this overs line and I will be shouting for points here
BET: Waratahs v Drua
Posted 19 Feb 23h18
2 units (1-5) Waratahs -13.5 at 0.92/1 at Pokerbet
Weather: 25 degrees, possible showers and storms, humidity in the early 80’s
I handicapped this game -16.5 Waratahs and after opening -11.5 it has edged up to the current line of -13.5 or -14.5 depending on where you bet.
I was looking at Waratahs over 5.5 tries at just shy of 1/1 but the potential storms are a concern and I will stick with a handicap play on a team that looked impressive last week.
The total points line is 58.5
BET: Hurricanes v Pasifika
Posted 19 Feb 23h10
2 units (1-5) under 67.5 points at 0.92/1 at Betxchange
Weather: 18 degrees, clear, wind up to 30km/h, humidity in 60’s
I handicapped this game Canes -20.5 and it looked well out when bookies opened -12.5. The line has moved quickly though and it is now -22.5 a couple of points higher than what I projected. The points line has also steadily moved up and while I did not see the early line it is now 67.5.
That just feel a touch high as 11 tries will likely be needed allowing for a couple of conversion misses. Edit - this sentence is a bit confusing - what I was trying to say is that if there were 10 tries with 2 missed conversions the unders would land and so it would likely need 11 tries for this bet to lose.
Betting Update
Posted 18 Feb 07h17
Below are the latest handicaps with opening lines in brackets
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Hurricanes (-12.5) -14.5 v Moana Pasifika
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Waratahs (-11.5) -13.5 v Fijian Drua
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Highlanders (+9.5) +8.5 v Chiefs
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Western Force (+11.5) +9.5 v Blues
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Crusaders (-8.5) -8.5 v Brumbies
Canes and Waratahs games edging closer to where I had them - no massive shifts
Handicaps are out
Posted 16 Feb 08h50
Below are the early handicaps at Betxchange in brackets next to my projections
Hurricanes -20.5 (-12.5) v Moana Pasifika
Waratahs -16.5 (-11.5) v Fijian Drua
Highlanders +6.5 (+9.5) v Chiefs
Western Force +11.5 (+11.5) v Blues
Crusaders -9.5 (-8.5) v Brumbies
A couple of big differences but I am going to wait and see what the market thinks
Bookies 1 BG 0
Posted 15 Feb 08h15
I had an absolute shocker going 0/4 with only my early Blues outright bet giving me a run for my money.
Round 1 Results Recap
- Highlanders 25–23 Crusaders – A tight New Zealand derby where the Highlanders +8.5 underdogs edged it late. My over 56.5 never looked a runner.
- Waratahs 36–12 Reds – A dominant statement from the Tahs, who looked sharp and justified the money that saw them start slight favourites. I was on the overs again sadly.
- Fijian Drua 26–40 Moana Pasifika – Moana made history with a powerful attacking display and they overturned a 9 point handicap. No bet – my best decision of the week.
- Blues 15–19 Chiefs – The Chiefs had to fight back for the win and my 35/20 Blues outright play was in the bin.
- Western Force 24–56 Brumbies – The Force were the Force, promising plenty but delivering little and I sense this was a good result for the bookies as I was on the Force at 11/10 but there they had been well backed from +5.5.
Outright Betting – After Round 1
The Chiefs have firmed into outright favouritism at 2/1, looking the most balanced side after Week 1. The Crusaders remain close behind at 3/1, despite a narrow opening loss, while the Hurricanes sit next in line at 9/2 with a favourable early draw.
The Blues have drifted slightly to 8/1 after an underwhelming start, while the Australian challenge is led by the Brumbies at 11/1. The Highlanders (11/1) and Waratahs (16/1) are given chances, with the remaining sides priced at longer odds as development projects rather than genuine title contenders.
Round 2 Fixtures and projected handicaps
These are my projected handicaps which will be compared to the bookmakers some time on Monday
Friday 20 February 2026
- Hurricanes -20.5 v Moana Pasifika
- Waratahs -16.5 v Fijian Drua
Saturday 21 February 2026
- Highlanders +6.5 v Chiefs
- Western Force +11.5 v Blues
Sunday 22 February 2026
- Crusaders -9.5 v Brumbies