Round 3 of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season is complete and we are starting to see some genuine separation forming on the ladder. In this blog we will cover the round 4 fixtures from a betting angle.
Bet: Blues v Crusaders
Posted 07 March 21h45
2 units (1–5) Blues -1.5 at 19/20 at BetXchange
I could not watch Friday’s games, thank goodness, but I am really battling with Super Rugby this season. Of course, that won’t stop me coming back for more.
I am going to swerve the early kickoff between the Highlanders (-9.5) and the Force, with the points line at 56.5. I did mull over the overs at 54.5, but now that the line has moved I’m happy to leave it alone.
Instead, I’m going to get involved in the Blues v Crusaders clash.
The Crusaders were impressive last week, but two of the three panellists on Wednesday night’s show are expecting the Blues to get the job done. With Will Jordan out for the Crusaders and the Blues naming a strong side, I’m happy to get on board.
The points line is 53.5, which looks about right.
Click here for the betting chat on this game from Thursday night’s live airing of “The Handicap”.
Bet: Waratahs v Hurricanes
Posted 05 March 23h20
1.5 units (1–5) Waratahs win at 27/20 at World Sports Betting
I’ve been impressed with the Waratahs so far this season and, although the Hurricanes will prefer the conditions here to what they experienced in Fiji last week, I think the home side can add to their misery.
The Tahs are currently +2.5 on the handicap, but I’m going to take the bigger price on the straight win.
Conditions look good in Sydney, and the points line is 55.5, which looks about right to me.
Bet: Chiefs v Moana Pasifika
Posted 05 March 23h08
2 units (1-5) Under 69.5 points at 0.84/1 at Pokerbet
Money has come for the Chiefs, with the handicap shifting from -22.5 to the current line of -32.5. The money looks well placed as they have named a strong side.
Listening to the lads on last night’s live rugby betting show “The Handicap”, the general feeling was that this points line of 68.5 looked a bit high. Even if the Chiefs run wild, it would only take a quiet 10–15 minute period for the unders to land.
Click here to listen to the Chiefs v Moana chat
I’m going to take Under 69.5 at just under 17/20 rather than Under 68.5 at 10/11.
My reasoning is that I don’t think we will see many three-pointers taken. That means 10 tries only loses if all 10 are converted, and 11 tries could still be a winner if four conversions are missed. At 68.5, however, we would need five missed conversions, which is a bigger ask.
This will probably be a torturous watch, but hopefully things get a bit scrappy at some point and the clock becomes our friend.
The Handicap - live at 21h00 tonight
Posted 05 March 20h05
I am taking a break from hosting tonight's live rugby betting show "The Handicap" but will be in the studio managing the comments.
Hosting duties go to @thecrowetips and he has a top class panel with The Mossman and @TheAdmiral
Click here to set a reminder or watch on You Tube
Here are the latest handicaps - 1st bets to follow after the show
Chiefs -32.5 v Moana Pasifika, Points 67.5
Waratahs +2.5 v Hurricanes, Points 54.5
Highlanders -9.5 v Western Force, Points 55.5
Blues -1.5 v Crusaders, Points 54.5
Brumbies -4.5 v Reds, Points 54.5
Super Rugby Pacific – Round 4 Handicaps Updated
Posted 03 March 08h01
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Chiefs v Moana Pasifika – Chiefs -26.5 from -22.5
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Waratahs v Hurricanes – Waratahs +1.5, stable
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Highlanders v Western Force – Highlanders -9.5 from -8.5
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Blues v Crusaders – Blues +2.5, stab;e
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Brumbies v Reds – Brumbies -6.5 from -10.5 moving closer to my projected -5.5
Super Rugby Handicaps are out
Posted 02 March 07h44
Below are the early Super Rugby handicaps (in brackets) at Betxchange next to my projections.
Chiefs -15.5 (-22.5) v Moana Pasifika – bookies correct here
Waratahs -3.5 (+1.5) v Hurricanes – Aussie teams looking very competitive against NZL teams this year, not betting yet but would take Tah’s ML
Highlanders -8.5 (-8.5) v Western Force
Blues +1.5 (+2.5) v Crusaders – I would have made Blues -4.5 before this past weekend
Brumbies -5.5 (-10.5) v Reds – I think this line might come in a bit , perhaps to -8.5
Round 4 Fixtures & Projected Handicaps – Super Rugby Pacific
Posted 01 March 21h59
Below are my projected handicaps which I will compare to the bookmakers tomorrow
Friday, 6 March 2026
Chiefs -15.5 v Moana Pasifika – 08:05
Waratahs -3.5 v Hurricanes – 10:35
Saturday, 7 March 2026
Highlanders -8.5 v Western Force – 05:35
Blues +1.5 v Crusaders – 08:05
Brumbies -5.5 v Reds – 10:35
ROUND 3 RESULTS RECAP
Moana Pasifika 19–35 Western Force – I left this one alone but money had come for Pasifika from -1.5 to -5.5 so a good result for the bookies
Queensland Reds 31–14 Highlanders – I was unable to watch this one thank goodness as was on the Highlanders ML. Money had come for the Reds so a popular result for punters I think
Fijian Drua 25–20 Hurricanes – I liked the Drua plus and they came from behind to win the game in tough conditions
Chiefs 33–43 Crusaders – Chiefs were leading 21-7 and then Crusaders ran in 36 unanswered points – crazy. I landed the Drua and Crusaders handicap double at 5/2.
ACT Brumbies 30–27 Blues – I went for Blues to win at just over 2/1 and they failed to close the game out – what a disappointment. I populated a 58/1 multiple with Drua, Crusaders, Blues all to win while compiling the newsletter but I forgot to take it – the heartbreak had the Blues hel on would have been real.
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
After three rounds, the ACT Brumbies have established themselves as the early pace-setters, sitting top of the table with a perfect 3-from-3 record and a commanding points differential. They are the only unbeaten side with three wins on the board and already have a small buffer at the summit.
The NSW Waratahs remain unbeaten as well, winning both of their opening fixtures to sit second on the ladder with a game in hand.
The Chiefs occupy third spot after three rounds, followed by the Hurricanes in fourth, who have played one fewer match. The Blues and Queensland Reds round out the top six, both having split their opening results and showing signs of inconsistency.
Further down the table, the Crusaders and Highlanders are locked on five points apiece after three matches, while the Western Force, Fijian Drua, and Moana Pasifika are still searching for momentum after difficult starts to the campaign.
I will be back later today with my round 4 handicap projections.