Round 4 of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season is complete and in this blog we will recap the results and their impact on the table before looking ahead to Round 5 from a betting angle.
Blues v Moana Pasifika
Posted 15 March 00h21
No Bet
It has been an excellent weekend of Super Rugby punting and with only 4 hours till kickoff I am only just heading to bed so will not be watching this one.
The handicap is Blues -25.5 or 26.5 pretty much where it opened and the points line is 66.5 with conditions looking good although there is some wind about.
I am closing up shop and will have the Round 6 blog up some time later today.
Bet: Reds v Waratahs
Posted 13 March 20h14
1 unit (1–5) Reds winning margin 8–14 points at 3/1 at WSB
I priced this game at Reds -8.5 and was not surprised to see them backed at the -6.5 level. The handicap has now moved to -10.5, which is getting a bit high for me.
Much like the Crusaders game, I am leaning towards the home side but rather than taking the handicap I will play the winning margin market with Reds 8–14 points.
The points line is 56.5 and conditions look reasonable, although there is some rain forecast earlier in the day.
Bet: Crusaders v Highlanders
Posted 13 March 20h04
1 unit (1-5) Crusaders winning margin 8–14 points at 3/1 at WSB
0.5 unit (1-5) Codie Taylor 1st Crusaders try at 15/2 at Pokerbet
I handicapped this game at Crusaders -9.5. It opened -8.5 and has moved to -10.5 on the back of Crusaders money. The points line is 54.5 and both the handicap and total look well set.
I am going to get involved in a couple of markets I do not often play. The first is the winning margin with Crusaders 8–14 points on the basis that the game looks well priced but I am leaning towards a Crusaders win.
The Crusaders love a good maul and I will take Codie Taylor to score their first try at 15/2.
The early game is Drua v Brumbies and I will stay with my Drua win play at 23/10 when betting opened. It is now around 23/20 and the handicap has moved from +7.5 to +1.5.
Bet: Hurricanes v Force
Posted 12 March 23h53
1.5 units Force 1st half handicap +9.5 at 0.94/1 at Pokerbet.
The handicap has moved from Hurricanes -18.5 to -21.5 and the points line is 59.5. There is some rain forecast before and potentially during the game, so I am leaning towards the unders.
My bet here though is a first half play on the Force +9.5. The Hurricanes have a loaded bench and may run away with this later in the match, but I fancy the Force can still be in touch at the break.
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Money for Drua and Reds
Posted 12 March 18h09
Money continues to come for the Drua now +2.5 from +7.5 and I am quite happy to be sitting on the early ML bet.
The Reds have moved from -6.5 to -8.5 over the Waratahs
Latest handicaps and points lines below
Hurricanes -21.5 v Western Force, Points 60.5
Fijian Drua +2.5 v Brumbies, Points 58.5
Crusaders -9.5 v Highlanders, Points 55.5
Reds -8.5 v Waratahs, Points 56.5
Blues -27.5 v Moana Pasifika, Points 69.5
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Betting Update
Posted 10 March 07h05
Hurricanes -20.5 v Western Force -money for Canes from -18.5
Fijian Drua +5.5 v Brumbies - money for Drua from +7.5
Crusaders -9.5 v Highlanders
Reds -6.5 v Waratahs
Blues -27.5 v Moana Pasifika
Round 5 Handicaps are out!
Posted 09 March 09h12
We have handicaps and Betxchange early lines in brackets next to my projections
Hurricanes -15.5 (-18.5)v Western Force
Fijian Drua -2.5 (+7.5) v Brumbies
Crusaders -9.5 (-8.5) v Highlanders
Queensland Reds -8.5 (-6.5) v Waratahs
Blues -25.5 (-26.5) v Moana Pasifika
All pretty close other than the Drua and I am going with my gut on this one. Rather than take a position on the handicap I will keep stakes small and have a win bet on the Drua.
BET: 1 unit (1-5) Drua win at 23/10 at Betxchange
Super Rugby Pacific Round 5 Handicap Projections
Posted 08 March 11h50
Below are my handicap projections for Round 5 which will be compared to the bookmakers lines on Monday
Hurricanes -15.5 v Western Force
Fijian Drua -2.5 v Brumbies – game played at 4R Stadium in Fiji (11st SRP game ever there)
Crusaders -9.5 v Highlanders
Queensland Reds -8.5 v Waratahs
Blues -25.5 v Moana Pasifika
ROUND 4 RESULTS RECAP
Posted 08 March
Chiefs 57–24 Moana Pasifika – Chiefs backed from -22.5 to -32.5 when I last looked. I went unders as the 69.5 seemed high but it wasn’t high enough
Waratahs 19–59 Hurricanes – Waratahs (+2.5) were in contention at the break but were blown away in the 2nd half as was my Waratahs board bet.
Highlanders 39–31 Western Force – this one landed very close to the handicap and I never got involved
Blues 29–13 Crusaders – I made Blues -2.5 my newsletter bet (sign up top right on desktop or click here) and they delivered comfortably.
Brumbies 31–34 Reds – Reds were well back from +10.5 to +3.5 and the plus backers were in trouble with 2 minutes to go when they trailed by 11 points but amazingly they went bang, bang to win the game. I went for either team by 7 or less at 1.38/1 but despite typing this one out I forgot to post it in the blog.
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
After four rounds the ACT Brumbies remain top of the Super Rugby Pacific standings, with three wins from their opening four matches and a healthy points differential keeping them clear at the summit.
The Chiefs sit second, also with three wins from four matches, while the Hurricanes are third having played one game fewer but boasting the strongest points differential in the competition so far.
The Blues occupy fourth place after splitting their opening fixtures, while the NSW Waratahs and Queensland Reds round out the top six.
Just outside the top six sit the Highlanders, who have two wins from four matches, while the Crusaders have struggled early, managing just one victory from their opening four games and sitting eighth on the table.
Further down the ladder, the Fijian Drua, Western Force and Moana Pasifika are still trying to build momentum after difficult starts to the campaign and will need strong results in the coming weeks to stay within touching distance of the playoff places.
I will be back with my handicap projections for Round 5 later today.
