Round 5 of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season is complete and in this blog we list the results and look at how they have impacted the standings before turning our attention to Round 6 from a betting angle.
Bet: Waratahs v Blues
Posted 21 March 08h52
2 units (1-5) Waratahs under 24.5 points at 17/20 at Hollywoodbets
This handicap is exactly where I set it at +6.5 Waratahs and with no firm view there I am looking at the points market which is priced at 55.5.
There appears to be some chance of showers and I am leaning unders but prefer the Waratahs unders as they seem to be battling for form at the moment.
Bet: Pasifika v Crusaders
Posted 20 March 23h00
2 units Pasifika +25.5 at 0.87/1 at WSB
There was some +30.5 Pasifika early doors but they have been backed and the market seems to have settled at +25.5. They have not had a great season but I feel they have been unlucky at times and I have a feeling they are going to run this Crusaders side who have blown more cold than hot, a lot closer than the betting suggests.
The points line is 66.5 and I am leaning unders but cannot bring myself to pull the trigger when Pasifika are playing.
Bet: Drua v Reds
Posted 20 March 22h53
2 units under 57.5 points at 10/11 at WSB
Friday saw a narrow loss on the unders in the Highlanders game and a narrow win in the unders in Canberra but overall a small loss with the Chiefs 1-12 going missing.
There has been steady money for the Drua all week and they have been backed from -0.5 to -5.5 passing my projected handicap of -3.5 along the way.
I don't see any value in the current handicap but the points line of 57.5 catches my eye.
There is some rain forecast in Lautoka and conditions will be hot and most likely muggy.
I am on the unders and would accept a 3rd successive game with 57 points.
Bet: Brumbies v Chiefs
Posted 19 March 22h57
1 unit Chiefs by 1-12 points at 43/20 at Betxchange
2 units under 58.5 points at 10/11 at Betxchange
This handicap opened Brumbies +6.5 and I capped the game +3.5 which is very much where it sits now.
The points line is 58.5 and that seems a touch high for a match between 2 of the title contenders.
I am leaning towards the Chiefs at current lines but reckon we get a close game here and will also have a nibble on the Chiefs to win by 1-12.
Bet: Highlanders v Hurricanes
Posted 19 March 22h49
2 units (1-5) under 55.5 points at 0.88/1 at Pokerbet
There was some -4.5 Hurricanes earlier in the week but the money has come for the visitors with the home team starting to look a bit stretched depth wise. The current cap is Canes -9.5 and we have a points line of 56.5 and that is where I am looking.
New Zealand derbies have tended to be lower scoring this season and I think unders is the play in this one.
Betting Update
Posted 19 March 19h53
I have not been able to track the betting this week as work has bene crazy. Below are the latest handicaps and points and remember to join us live at 21h00 tonight for The Handicap for betting chat on Super Rugby Pacific and URC.
Handicaps are out!
Posted 16 March 10h42
Below are the early handicaps at Betxchange in brackets next to mine
Highlanders +5.5 (+7.5) v Hurricanes
Brumbies +2.5 (+6.5) v Chiefs
Drua -3.5 (-2.5) v Reds
Moana Pasifika +26.5 (+28.5) v Crusaders
Waratahs +6.5 (+6.5) v Blues
The only significant difference is Brumbies v Chiefs which is 4 points and I am going to give the bookmakers the benefit of the doubt here and suggest that my handicap is wrong.
Round 6 Fixtures and handicap projections
Posted 15 March 22h36
Below are the round 6 fixtures with my handicap projections which will be compared to the bookmakers early lines on Monday
Friday 20 March 2026
Highlanders +5.5 v Hurricanes (08:05)
Brumbies +2.5 v Chiefs (10:35)
Saturday 21 March 2026
Drua -3.5 v Reds (05:35) - played in Lautoka
Moana Pasifika +26.5 v Crusaders (08:05) - played in Auckland
Waratahs +6.5 v Blues (10:35)
ROUND 5 RESULTS
Posted 15 March
Hurricanes 31–23 Western Force – the Force comfortably beat the handicap of +21.5 and more important for me the half time handicap of +8.5 which was the blog selection
Fijian Drua 42–27 ACT Brumbies – The Drua claimed another big scalp and having priced them as slight favourites I took the early 23/10 they would win the match
Crusaders 29–18 Highlanders – I thought the handicap of Crusaders -10.5 looked about right and went for a speculative Crusaders by 8-14 play at 3/1 and it arrived on the back of a Crusaders comeback. The Codie Taylor 1st Crusaders Try Score was the only play of the weekend to miss.
Queensland Reds 26–17 NSW Waratahs – The Reds scored twice late to land another 8-14 pick at 3/1 – they started the game -10.5.
Blues 43–7 Moana Pasifika – I left this game alone as could not watch and did not want to give anything back from a much needed profitable Super Rugby weekend.
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
The Hurricanes currently sit in first place on 15 points from four matches, their strong points differential giving them a narrow edge despite having played one game fewer than most of the competition.
The Blues and ACT Brumbies are also on 15 points after five matches and remain firmly in the hunt near the summit of the standings.
Just behind them are the Chiefs and Queensland Reds, both on 13 points from four matches, while the NSW Waratahs complete the top six with 10 points from their opening four fixtures.
Outside the playoff positions sit the Highlanders and Crusaders on nine points each after five matches, while the Fijian Drua moved to eight points with their win in Round 5.
At the lower end of the table Western Force and Moana Pasifika are both on four points after five rounds and their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.
I will be back later today with my handicap projections for Round 6.
