Round 9 of Super Rugby Pacific is upon us following another entertaining albeit limited weekend of action in Round 8. We look at the latest results, how the table is shaping up, and what lies ahead this weekend
Bet: Reds v Crusaders
Posted 11 April 07h36
1.5 units (1-5) Reds win at 31/20 at Betxchange
This handicap is exactly where I set it at Reds +3.5 but with the Crusaders missing a few players I think the Reds are value to bounce back from a poor showing against the Force.
The model reckons the handicap is well set and suggests a small play on over 55.5 in what looks like being warm and clear conditions although in Brisbane the humidity can be a factor and I am going to stick to my win bet.
The Round 10 blog will be up on Sunday and aside from posting my projected handicaps I will share some early thoughts on the model I am testing.
Bet: Hurricanes v Blues
Posted 11 April 07h25
1 units Total Points Range 56-62 at 39/10 at Hollywoodbets
When I take a bet like this it pretty much means I am battling to form a strong opinion and I think the lines are well set.
The Hurricanes are -9.5 and while I was leaning to the Blues on the handicap the model is suggesting a strong play on the Hurricanes so I am going to focus on the points lines.
The current line is 54.5 which looks well set to me. The model is suggesting a strong overs play and while I also like the overs it is not with the same enthusiasm.
The bet I am taking needs the overs to land, but only just.
Saturday morning action!
Posted 10 April 22h40
2 units Drua -4.5 at 0.98/1 at Pokerbet
The model got off too a good start although I believe it was close and thankfully we stuck to the handicap and left the points.
I won't be up for the Pasifika v Chiefs game in the morning and the model likes the under 68.5 and the Moana +31.5 - conditions look better than I expected so nervous to take the unders.
In the Drua v Force game the model is suggesting the handicap is well set and is going for over 54.5 points. I may regret this but with rain forecast and humidity likely to be high I am not going to follow on this one and will go for the Drua to play out of their skins at home ad I am backing them to beat the handicap.
Hoping for a model weekend!
Posted 09 April 07h42
I am trying something different in the blog this weekend.
One of the Goodforthegame veterans has been working on a model currently covering Super Rugby and URC and has asked me to test it. My picks this week will be guided by the model and given I am not exactly in flying form I am more than happy to delegate.
Units 1-5: 5 bets is a Max bet
Bet: Highlanders v Brumbies
5 units Brumbies -1.5 at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
I handicapped this game Highlanders -2.5 and the line opened -1.5 but has shifted under weight of money for the Brumbies. This did not surprise me as I know the likes of The Mossman and The Admiral (both on tonights live betting show The Handicap) made the Brumbies firm favourites.
The model agrees and predicts a comfortable Brumbies win suggesting a maximum bet.
The model also like the over 56.5 strongly but I am just going with the 1 bet for now although if you are looking to combine both Betxchange go Brumbies win and over 57.5 points at just over 2/1
Money for Highlanders and Chiefs
Posted 08 April 22h40
Below the latest handicaps and points where available
Highlanders +1.5 v Brumbies, 56.5 points - Brumbies backed from +1.5 to -1.5
Moana Pasifika +31.5 v Chiefs - as expected the +39.5 moved in quickly
Fijian Drua -4.5 v Western Force
Hurricanes -8.5 v Blues - some money for the home team from -6.5
Reds +4.5 v Crusaders
Round 9 handicaps are up
Posted 06 April 08h55
Early handicaps in brackets next to my projections
Highlanders -2.5 (-1.5) vs Brumbies
Moana Pasifika +25.5 (+39.5) vs Chiefs
Fijian Drua -6.5 (-4.5) vs Western Force
Hurricanes -5.5 (-6.5) vs Blues
Reds +3.5 (+5.5) vs Crusaders
All within 2 points other than Moana game where I am a massive 14 points out. Surely 39.5 will come in a few points?
ROUND 9 FIXTURES & PROJECTED HANDICAPS
Posted 06 April
Below my projected handicaps for round 9
Highlanders -2.5 vs Brumbies
Moana Pasifika +25.5 vs Chiefs
Fijian Drua -6.5 vs Western Force
Hurricanes -5.5 vs Blues
Reds +3.5 vs Crusaders
ROUND 8 RESULTS
Crusaders 69 v 26 Fijian Drua – I was on Crusaders over 43.5 which cruised home
Chiefs 42 v 14 Waratahs – my bet here was Waratahs under 21.5 which was never in doubt
Reds 19 v 42 Western Force – The Reds -12.5 saw my coin and I never saw this result coming
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
The Hurricanes (25 pts) and Blues (25 pts) continue to set the pace at the top of the table, although the Blues have played a game more.
The Chiefs (22 pts) sit 3rd and remain firmly in the title conversation following another strong win, while the Brumbies (20 pts) continue to track well in 4th and look well positioned for a playoff spot.
The Crusaders (19 pts) have climbed back into the top six and are building momentum after a dominant Round 8 performance, while the Reds (18 pts) hold onto 6th despite a heavy loss last week.
Just outside the playoff positions, the chasing pack includes the Waratahs (14 pts) and Highlanders (14 pts), both of whom remain within striking distance but will need results quickly to stay in contention.
Further down, the Western Force (9 pts) gave their campaign a boost with a strong win over the Reds, while the Fijian Drua (8 pts) and Moana Pasifika (4 pts) continue to struggle for consistency.
