Round 11 of the United Rugby Championship takes place on Friday 30 January and Saturday 31 January, and in this blog we will once again keep a close eye on all things betting-related across the weekend.
Roll on the 6 Nations
Posted 01 Feb 14h05
We had friends over last night and after landing overs in the Lions game and the Sharks board bet I decided to shut up shop and book a profitable weekend.
All eyes now shift to the 6 Nations and I will have a blog up Monday morning looking at some of the long term markets on offer.
Remember you can stay in touch via my weekly betting newsletter by clicking here or subbing top right of the page
BET: Sharks v Stormers
Posted 31 Jan 10h23
2 units Sharks win at 1.36/1 at Betxchange
I made the Sharks -5.5 for this game and, having opened at -0.5, they are now trading at +2.5. That swing has caught my eye as I cannot see the reason for it beyond the fact that the Sharks have generally battled to put good performances together in succession.
I liked the Sharks last week but got greedy with the HT/FT option. At the current prices, I am firmly back in their camp. They were full value for their win last weekend, while the Stormers have not been as impressive in recent weeks.
The Sharks look like a side that has turned a corner. There is still work to do if they are to push for the playoffs, but this feels like a key opportunity to build momentum.
The points line is 46.5. In Durban in late January I am usually interested in unders, but the bookmakers are well aware of that trend, so there is no real edge there for me.
For now, this is a straight moneyline play on the Sharks. I am unsure whether I will get involved in the other games and will probably just put together a small acca for interest.
BET: Lions v Bulls
Posted 31 Jan 08h37
Bet: 2 units (1–5) Over 49.5 points at 0.93/1 (Pokerbet)
The handicap for this game sits at Lions +4.5, which is very much in line with where I had it. My focus, however, is on the points line of 49.5.
There are some showers forecast and, as I type this, it is an overcast morning in Johannesburg. Despite that, this line still feels 2–3 points too low.
Both sides play at a good tempo, and recent head-to-head meetings support a higher-scoring contest, with the overs landing in each of the last three clashes. On that basis, I cannot resist a play on the over here.
How did he miss?
Posted 31 Jan 07h35
When the Scarlets player emerged from the mist to score pretty close to the posts I mentally banked the conversion. Somehow he missed an absolute sitter and the final 20-20 score meant my Scarlets win play at just shy of 5/1 had fallen short.
Munster were always chasing the game against Glasgow so no complaints on that one.
Below are the current handicaps and points lines for todays action - remember you can subscribe to my free weekly newsletter top right or click here
Lions +4.5 v Bulls (50.5)
Zebre +5.5 v Connacht (44.5)
Sharks +2.5 v Stormers (46.5)
Leinster -6.5 v Edinburgh (49.5)
Ospreys -6.5 v Dragons (50.5)
Ulster -12.5 v Cardiff (50.5)
Friday Night Strategy - testing a theory
Posted 30 Jan 14h28
Putting the South African derbies aside, I am not especially excited about this weekend’s URC action, with so many Six Nations players missing.
The post below looks at the squad numbers for each club, and I have also reviewed results from the equivalent weekend last year. Benetton are badly impacted, effectively losing close to a full starting XV. While Scarlets are also affected, they are missing just over half a team.
At this time last year, Scarlets beat Edinburgh 30–24 at home, while Benetton were thrashed 43–0 away to the Ospreys. On that basis, I make Scarlets a live runner here.
I am applying similar logic to Glasgow v Munster. Glasgow are missing around 17 players, compared to roughly eight for Munster. Last season, Munster hammered the Dragons away, while Glasgow only narrowly edged Connacht at home.
I cannot promise this logic will hold up, but I am backing the less depleted sides to come out on top.
Bets:
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1 unit Scarlets to win at 24/5 (BetXchange)
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1 unit Munster to win at 19/10 (WSB)
I am catching up with a mate from the UK tonight (sadly in town for his mom’s memorial) and will be back tomorrow morning. The newsletter will also go out then.
6 Nations Players unavailable per URC team
Posted 30 Jan 08h59
Here is a summary of URC players unavailable due to 6 Nations call-ups, broken down by club:
- note I used ChatGPT to generate and it may not be 100% but gives a good indication.
Ireland Provinces
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Leinster: 19 players
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Munster: 8 players
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Ulster: 8 players
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Connacht: 3 players
Total (Ireland): 38 players
Italy
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Benetton: 14 players
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Zebre Parma: 8 players
Total (Italy): 22 players
Scotland
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Glasgow Warriors: 17 players
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Edinburgh Rugby: 9 players
Total (Scotland): 26 players
Wales
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Scarlets: 9 players
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Cardiff Rugby: 7 players
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Ospreys: 7 players
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Dragons: 2 players
Total (Wales): 25 players
Weather for Round 11
Posted 30 Jan 06h25
Below are weather forecasts for the weekend, click on the fixture for updates and if planning a weather based bet verify through another site or better still someone local.
Friday
Glasgow Warriors v Munster – 21:45, Glasgow - 4 degrees, some showers forecast, humidity late 80's
Benetton Treviso v Scarlets – 21:45, Treviso - 8 degrees, dry with some cloud, humidity mid 80's
Saturday
Lions v Bulls – 14:30, Johannesburg - 22 degrees, showers forecast, humidity early 50's
Zebre v Connacht – 17:00, Parma - 6 degrees, overcast with showers, humidity 90%
Sharks v Stormers – 17:00, Durban - 28 degrees, overcast, humidity high 70's
Leinster v Edinburgh – 19:30, Dublin - 7 degrees, possible showers, humidity late 80's
Ospreys v Dragons – 21:45, Swansea - 7 degrees, possible showers, humidity early 90's
Ulster v Cardiff Rugby – 21:45, Belfast - 6 degrees, possible showers, humidity early 90's
Latest handicaps below
Glasgow Warriors -4.5 v Munster
Benetton Treviso -11.5 v Scarlets (43.5)
Lions +5.5 v Bulls
Zebre +6.5 v Connacht
Sharks +2.5 v Stormers
Leinster -14.5 v Edinburgh
Ospreys -5.5 v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 v Cardiff
All quiet on the betting front
Posted 28 Jan 23h03
Latest handicaps in brackets and Stormers the only 2 point movers
Glasgow Warriors -1.5 (-1.5) v Munster
Benetton Treviso -10.5 (-10.5) v Scarlets
Lions +4.5 (+5.5) v Bulls
Zebre +6.5 (+6.5) v Connacht
Sharks -0.5 (+1.5) v Stormers
Leinster -16.5 (-15.5) v Edinburgh
Ospreys -5.5 (-5.5) v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 (-12.5) v Cardiff Rugby
Handicap as at Tuesday 27 January 15h01
I missed the early handicaps due to work commitments so I am not sure if there have been any moves but the current caps at Betx below
Glasgow Warriors -1.5 v Munster
Benetton Treviso -10.5 v Scarlets
Lions +4.5 v Bulls
Zebre +6.5 v Connacht
Sharks -0.5 v Stormers
Leinster -16.5 v Edinburgh
Ospreys -5.5 v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 v Cardiff Rugby
I got the Lions game right but was a few points out on the Sharks game where I expected a bigger minus
Here are the latest URC outright betting odds:
Posted 26 Jan 09h30
Leinster – 4/5
Stormers – 7/2
Glasgow Warriors – 11/2
Munster – 9/1
Bulls – 9/1
Ulster – 14/1
Sharks – 20/1
Lions – 79/1
Cardiff Rugby – 149/1
Benetton Treviso – 194/1
Connacht – 249/1
Edinburgh – 249/1
Scarlets – 249/1
Ospreys – 249/1
Dragons – 999/1
Zebre – 1999/1
Round 10 Wrap – logic was sound, strategy poor
I called for a weekend of close games, and that is exactly what we got, with a draw and no victory margin greater than 11 points. Unfortunately, I was unable to watch any rugby, so I structured most of my bets around a few 1–12 doubles and did not land the right combinations.
The biggest disappointment was the Edinburgh loss, especially after they had shortened into favouritism. I was also frustrated not to have backed the Sharks on the moneyline, having instead opted for the 22/1 half-time/full-time play. – a great call from Riaan in the rugby forum thread on this one.
From a financial perspective, it was not a damaging weekend due to low stakes, but in terms of momentum, it was certainly a setback.
Table Update
Glasgow Warriors have moved to the top of the table on 39 points, three clear of the Stormers, who suffered their first defeat of the season but still have a game in hand. Leinster and Cardiff sit third and fourth on 35 points, with Munster just one point behind in fifth.
Ulster are next on 32 points, also with a game in hand, before a sizeable gap opens up to the Lions in seventh on 24 points, with the Ospreys three points further back in eighth.
Below them, six teams, led by the Bulls, are clustered within five points of the playoff places, keeping the race for the top eight firmly alive.
Round 11 Fixtures – with handicap projections
Below are the round 11 fixtures with my gut feel on handicaps for the SA games. I imagine the 6 Nations players will be out of action and until I have clarity on this and a feel for the depth of squads I don’t see the value in handicapping.
Benetton v Scarlets – 21:45, Stadio Monigo
Glasgow Warriors v Munster – 21:45, Scotstoun Stadium
Lions +5.5 v Bulls – 14:30, Ellis Park
Sharks -5.5 v Stormers – 17:00, Hollywoodbets Kings Park
Zebre Parma v Connacht – 17:00, Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi
Leinster v Edinburgh – 19:30, Aviva Stadium
Ospreys v Dragons – 21:45, Electric Brewery Field
Ulster v Cardiff Rugby – 21:45, Affidea Stadium
I will be back when we have handicaps and hopefully an outright betting update.
