Having been in the bush for a few days I am late to the party this week but in this blog I will share any bets I take to kick off the New Year
URC Round 9 Results and Betting Summary
Posted 04 Jan 08h43
Round 9 produced plenty of drama and tight contests, with several matches decided by fine margins.
Bet Results
Sharks 22–23 Lions
Bet: Over 46.5 points (2 units) – Lost
A brutal near miss. With 35 points at halftime the overs looked well set, but the game tightened considerably with plenty of errors after the break. A missed conversion (off the post) after the hooter that would have taken the total over summed up the frustration.
Stormers 13–8 Bulls
Bet: Bulls +9.5 (2 units) – Won
A textbook derby arm wrestle. The Bulls stayed competitive throughout and comfortably covered the number in a low-scoring contest.
Benetton 14–15 Edinburgh
Bet: Benetton by 1–12 points (1 unit) – Lost
Another tight one that went the wrong way.
Leinster 52–17 Connacht & Glasgow 45–10 Zebre
Bet:
– Connacht under 16.5 points
– Zebre under 13.5 points
(1 unit double) – Lost
Zebre did their part, but Connacht edged past the line with 17 points, killing the double.
Other results
Dragons RFC 28–5 Scarlets
Ospreys 33–22 Cardiff Rugby
Ulster 28–3 Munster
Round Summary
A frustrating round defined by narrow misses. The Bulls handicap landed comfortably, while both the Sharks overs and Connacht unders failed by the smallest of margins.
Attention now turns to the Champions Cup.
Remaining Bets
Posted 03 Jan 17h46
After the overs loss in the Sharks game (35 points at the break and the conversion to win hitting the post), I am taking it as a sign not to rush into 2026. With that in mind, interest is kept small on the remaining plays.
Bet: Benetton v Edinburgh
Stake: 1 unit (max bet 5 units)
Selection: Benetton to win by 1–12 points
Odds: 1.62/1 (SuperSportBet)
SuperSportBet tend to offer some decent prices in the winning margin markets compared to other bookmakers. I don’t have a particularly strong view on the main lines here, with Benetton -8.5 on the handicap and the points set at 43.5, so I’m opting for a more conservative angle.
Bet: Leinster v Connacht & Glasgow v Zebre
Stake: 1 unit double
Selections:
• Connacht under 16.5 points at 8/10
• Zebre under 13.5 points at 9/10
Odds: 24/10 (Hollywoodbets)
I’m backing the home sides to keep things tight in what are expected to be freezing conditions. With attack likely to be blunted, a small unders-based double feels like the right approach to close out the round.
Bet: Sharks v Lions
Posted: 03 Jan 10h47
Stake: 2 units (max bet 5 units)
Selection: Over 46.5 points
Odds: 9/10 (PokerBet)
Is this an ill-advised overs play in Durban? Possibly. Conditions are expected to be hot and handling may not be straightforward, but I have a feeling we see points in this one.
Three of the last four head-to-head meetings in Durban have landed on exactly 47 points, and I would happily settle for a repeat of that outcome here. The current handicap sits at Sharks -11.5, with significant support for the home side after opening around -6.
If this overs play misses you have my word it will be unders or nothing in Durban from now on.
Bet: Stormers v Bulls
Posted: 03 Jan 10h30
Stake: 2 units (max bet = 5 units)
Selection: Bulls +9.5
Odds: 9/10 (Hollywoodbets)
What a cracking derby to kick off 2026, and this has all the ingredients of a proper contest. The Bulls arrive under pressure with their season threatening to drift, while the Stormers come into the match on a nine-game winning streak. That said, the Stormers have looked slightly sloppy at times during this run and have not been quite as clinical as earlier in the season.
The handicap opened at Stormers -7.5 and has since pushed out to -9.5. The points line sits at 49.5, which feels about right given this could develop into an arm wrestle.
On paper, both squads are stacked with talent. I rate the Bulls as at least equal up front, while the Stormers probably hold the edge in the backline. The Bulls also have the steady boot of Pollard, which I expect them to use effectively in taking points when on offer.
All things considered, I think the Bulls can stay in touch throughout and keep this within the number, making +9.5 the play.
Latest URC Betting
Posted 03 Jan 06h47
I decided to sit last nights game out so will officially dust off my betting accounts today (I am also following the SA20 closely and have posted a couple of bets on todays games in the forum)
Below is the latest betting and points lines - 2 point moves in favour of the Sharks and Stormers - bets to follow after my daughter has dragged me to a Parkrun (or walk in my case)
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Sharks -10.5 v Lions, Points 46.5
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Stormers -9.5 v Bulls, Points 49.5
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Benetton Treviso -7.5 v Edinburgh Rugby, Points 46.5
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Leinster -17.5 v Connacht Rugby, Points 52.5
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Glasgow Warriors -26.5 v Zebre Parma, Points 52.5
URC Round 9 Weather
Posted 02 Jan 07h53
Here are the latest forecasts for the remaining Round 9 fixtures. These forecasts are seldom 100% accurate and I advise doing your own homework before placing a weather-based bet.
Click on the fixture for weather updates
Ulster v Munster – Freezing in Belfast with possible rain and even snow, humidity in high 80’s
Sharks v Lions – Temp in mid 20’s, clear with some wind, humidity in early 70’s
Stormers v Bulls – Early 20’s, overcast and windy, humidity early 70’s
Benetton v Edinburgh – Cold around 6 degrees, overcast but dry, humidity early 70’s
Leinster v Connacht – Freezing, rain earlier in day, cloudy, humidity mid to late 80’s
Glasgow v Zebre – Freezing at -2 degrees, clear, humidity early 70’s
There are 8 fixtures spread over 3 days with 2 Welsh derbies on New Years Day, an Irish Derby on Friday and there are 2 South African derbies amongst Saturdays 5 games.
URC Round 9 – Current Betting
Thursday 1 January 2026
- Dragons RFC v Scarlets – Rodney Parade, 17:00
Dragons +4.5 v Scarlets, Points 48.5
Verdict: The handicap has been stable and I am expecting a tight game. My lean here is Scarlets by 1-12 points inclusive at 15/10 but I am going to be watching the cricket so won’t have a bet.
- Ospreys v Cardiff Rugby – Dunraven Brewery Field, 19:30
Ospreys -3.5 v Cardiff, Points 46.5
Verdict: The handicap has been stable on this game as well and it should be a typical tight derby. The points line of 46.5 is tempting (would of arrived in 4 of the last 5 meetings) but although the rain should of passed it will be freezing cold and I am reluctant to pull the trigger on my 1st bet of 2026
Friday 2 January 2026
- Ulster v Munster – Aviva Stadium, 21:45
Ulster -2.5 v Munster
Saturday 3 January 2026
- Hollywoodbets Sharks v Lions – Hollywoodbets Kings Park, 15:30
Sharks -8.5 v Lions - DHL Stormers v Vodacom Bulls – DHL Stadium, 18:00
Stormers -7.5 v Bulls - Benetton Treviso v Edinburgh Rugby – Stadio Monigo, 19:30
Benetton -6.5 v Edinburgh - Leinster v Connacht Rugby – Aviva Stadium, 19:30
Leinster -17.5 v Connacht - Glasgow Warriors v Zebre Parma – Scotstoun Stadium, 21:45
Glasgow -25.5 v Zebre