Week 1 of the URC is behind us and in this blog, I’ll keep an eye on all things betting-related as we build towards the second round of matches.
Bet: Lions v Ospreys
Posted 2 October 16h05
3 units (1–5): Over 57.5 points at 0.93/1 with World Sports Betting
The Lions were backed from -9.5 to -11.5 following the team announcements, and that is where the handicap has remained.
I have been eagerly awaiting the points line, which has opened at 57.5. I expect this to edge closer to 60 points by kick-off.
Although the Ospreys were well beaten last weekend, they still scored four tries against the Sharks, and I think we could see something similar at Ellis Park. The Lions certainly look full of running themselves.
I’m quite happy to take this line as one of my bigger bets of the weekend.
Bet: Edinburgh v Stormers
Posted 2 October 07h54
2.5 units (1–5): Under 48.5 points at 10/11 with World Sports Betting
Edinburgh were trading at -4.5 early in the week, but the Stormers have attracted support following the team announcements and are now very slight favourites.
If pushed, I would lean towards the visitors here, but I’m once again turning to the points market, where the total is set at 48.5.
Weather forecasts can be unreliable, but from what I can see, there could be fairly heavy showers during the game. With both previous meetings in Edinburgh producing 45 points or fewer, I’m making the unders my play.
Bet: Cardiff v Zebre
Posted 02 October 07h41
2 units (1–5): Under 52.5 points at 0.87/1 at Betxchange
Cardiff delivered our biggest URC bet last week when they beat the Scarlets on the road. Given that Zebre were handed a hiding by the Bulls at home, it is no surprise to see Cardiff as strong favourites, having been backed from -17.5 to -20.5.
I’m not sure I have enough faith in Cardiff at those sorts of lines, so I’m turning my attention to the points market, which is set at 52.5.
According to the forecast I’m looking at, there is a good chance of showers tonight. Under 52.5 points would also have landed in each of the last three meetings between the sides.
Bet: Benetton v Connacht
Posted 2 October 07h09
3 units (1–5): Connacht win at 13/10 with World Sports Betting
Benetton are priced as -2.5 favourites at home and will be looking to bounce back from last week’s disappointing draw with the Dragons, having led by 14 points at one stage.
Connacht were favourites at home to the Stormers last week but ended up being well beaten, although the final margin of 14 points was probably a little harsh on them. Like their opponents, they will be desperate to bounce back.
I like the look of this Connacht team and am a little surprised they are not starting as narrow favourites.
The total-points line is 48.5, but I’m not going to get further involved in this one as this looks likely to be my biggest play of the night.
Teams are out
Posted 01 Oct 23h58
The teams have all been announced and you can click here for the full list and predictions from Rugby 365
Below are the latest handicaps and points where available with betting moves since my update earlier this morning noted
Edinburgh +0.5 v Stormers — moved from Edinburgh -4.5, a five-point shift towards the Stormers and a change of favourite
Benetton -2.5 v Connacht, total points 48.5 — handicap unchanged
Cardiff -20.5 v Zebre, total points 51.5 — moved from Cardiff -17.5, a three-point shift towards Cardiff
Lions -11.5 v Ospreys — moved from Lions -9.5
Dragons -1.5 v Scarlets — unchanged
Sharks -2.5 v Leinster — moved from Sharks +3.5, a six-point shift towards the Sharks and a change of favourite
Glasgow Warriors -13.5 v Ulster — unchanged
Munster -2.5 v Bulls — moved from Munster -3.5
Money for the Sharks
Posted 29 Sep 20h05
Latest URC Round 2 handicaps below with movements since last posting
Edinburgh -4.5 v Stormers — unchanged
Benetton -2.5 v Connacht — moved from -3.5
Cardiff -16.5 v Zebre — unchanged
Lions -9.5 v Ospreys — unchanged
Dragons -1.5 v Scarlets — unchanged
Sharks +2.5 v Leinster — significant move from +5.5, suggesting strong support for the Sharks
Glasgow Warriors -13.5 v Ulster — unchanged
Munster -3.5 v Bulls — moved from -4.5
Round 2 Projected Handicaps
Posted 28 Sep 08h17
Ok, time to get into the match handicapping having sat out the opening week - below are my handicap (not winning margin) projections
Cardiff -12.5 v Zebre
Edinburgh +3.5 v Stormers
Benetton -2.5 v Connacht
Lions -9.5 v Ospreys
Dragons -8.5 v Scarlets
Sharks +5.5 v Leinster ( I am assuming Leinster go full strength)
Glasgow Warriors -12.5 v Ulster
Munster +4.5 v Bulls
Round 1 Review
Benetton 19–19 Dragons
Benetton started as -9.5 favourites and were twice two scores clear, but the Dragons fought back in a low-scoring second half. They missed a conversion that would have given them the victory and it was disappointing to see them kick the ball out at the end rather than pushing for the win. I had taken Dragons +9.5 in a Friday double with Edinburgh.
Ulster 29–34 Edinburgh
The scoreline doesn’t reflect how well Edinburgh won this game, as Ulster piled on consolation tries late on. Edinburgh were well backed at +11.5, and I managed to get +12.5 for the double with the Dragons. It paid just shy of 5/2.
Connacht 15–29 Stormers
I went under 49.5 points, and the bet never really looked in doubt. I was still relieved to hear the final hooter after the Stormers’ late breakaway try. Connacht started at -5.5, having been backed from -3.5, but the Stormers generally looked in control.
The weekly newsletter went out on Friday, and the Friday night treble landed at 5.68/1 – click here to get on my mailing list
Lions 27–26 Leinster
The Lions moved from +6.5 to as short as -7.5 after the teams were announced. They led by eight points in the final minute, but Leinster scored a converted try to reward their handicap backers and spoil my Lions -4.5 bet. The total was set at 57.5, and unders backers had a comfortable ride.
Sharks 41–24 Ospreys
Ospreys were backed from +12.5 to +10.5, but the Sharks stamped their authority on the game early and built a commanding half-time lead. Their eventual 17-point winning margin could have been bigger. I took the Sharks to win by 1–12 points. It was disappointing (for my bet) to see Ospreys kick the ball out at the end, although they had nothing to gain from running it from their own line.
Munster 20–26 Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow began the week as slight underdogs but were around -3.5 by kick-off. Munster fought hard before a late score saw Glasgow home. Unfortunately, the missed conversion left the match total at 46 points, half a point short of my over 46.5 bet.
Zebre 13–47 Bulls
I thought Zebre might cause the upset of the weekend and took over 4/1 for a small interest. They looked decent in the early exchanges, but the Bulls proved far too strong and ran out comfortable winners.
Scarlets 15–21 Cardiff
My biggest bet of the week was Cardiff to win at 10/11, and I got my money down early. It was far from a comfortable ride, but they did enough in a low-scoring encounter. Cardiff were well backed, moving from slight underdogs to start as 2.5-point favourites.
Overall, it was a decent betting weekend, largely thanks to the Friday night newsletter treble and the early Cardiff play.
Round 2 Fixtures
Friday 2 October
- Cardiff Rugby v Zebre Parma — Cardiff Arms Park
- Edinburgh v Stormers — Hive Stadium
- Benetton v Connacht — Stadio Monigo
Saturday 3 October
- Lions v Ospreys — Ellis Park
- Dragons v Scarlets — Rodney Parade
- Sharks v Leinster — Kings Park
- Glasgow Warriors v Ulster — Scotstoun Stadium
- Munster v Bulls — Thomond Park
I’ll be back late Sunday or early Monday with my handicap projections for Round 2.
