The final action in the November Rugby International Series comes from Cardiff on Saturday where the Springboks take on Wales

Wales v South Africa, Saturday 29th November, Cardiff, KO 17:10 (South African time)

Referee: Luc Ramos (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (RFU), Pierre Brousset (FFR)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)

Weather Forecast - Cardiff (check to find out if the roof will be closed) 

Wales:

With this game falling outside of the international window Wales will be without around 13 players from the squad involved in the earlier internationals this month.

Wales lost 52-26 to the All Blacks n Cardiff last week. Tom Rogers scored a hat trick of tries but the All Blacks ran in a total of 7 and the margin of the Welsh defeat was just a touch short of the bookmakers main handicap line.

Wales edged out Japan 24-23 in Cardiff for their only win of this series so far, they were 12.5 point favourites on the main pre-match handicap line but they needed a penalty from Jarrod Evans with the last kick of the game to scramble a victory.

Steve Tandy took over as coach of Wales for their first action of the November series against Argentina in Cardiff and they crashed and burned 52-28.  

In July Wales were in Japan where they lost the first test 24-19 before snapping an 18 match losing streak with a 31-22 victory in the second test.

Wales had a really poor 6 Nations earlier this year, finishing with the wooden spoon after losing all their matches.

In the November Internationals of 2024 Wales lost to Fiji (24-19), Australia (52-20) and South Africa (45-12).

South Africa:

South Africa will also field a much changed line up for their final action of the year.

The Boks were supported on the main handicap line for last week’s clash with Ireland in Dublin and those who took the -6.5 were on the right side of it as South Africa ran out winners 24-13. The Boks scored 4 tries to Irelands 1 in a game of 5 yellow cards (and 1 red), of which all but 1 were shown to Ireland.

The victory in Dublin was preceded by wins in Italy (32-14), in France (32-17) and against Japan at Wembley (61-7).

Prior to that South Africa clinched the Rugby Championship title, winning 4 and losing 2 of their matches.

In the November international series of 2024 South Africa won in Scotland (32-15), in England (29-20) and Wales (45-12).

Recent Head to Head

Nov 2024 INT Cardiff Wales 12-45 South Africa

Jun 2024 INT Twickenham South Africa 41-13 Wales

Aug 2023 RWC (WU) Cardiff Wales 16-52 South Africa

Jul 2022 INT Cape Town South Africa 30-14 Wales

Jul 2022 INT Bloemfontein South Africa 12-13 Wales

Team News

Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Alex Mann, 6 Taine Plumtree, 5 Rhys Davies, 4 Ben Carter, 3 Keiron Assiratti,
2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Christian Coleman, 19 James Ratti, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Ben Thomas

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Damian de Allende, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Zachary Porthen, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Ben-Jason Dixon, 22 Kwagga Smith, 23 Cobus Reinach

The Betting

Updated 28 Nov 11h40

Wales +42.5 points at 9/10

South Africa -40.5 points at 9/10

Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.

Betting Angle

Posted 28 Nov 11h44

I understand this game opened at -32.5 overseas and there was some -35.5 Boks locally. Money has continued to come for the home team and there is anywhere from -40.5 to -42.5 on offer at the time of writing. 

The points line is 67.5 with the roof closed. 

BET: 1 unit Last Bok Try Scorer – Kwagga Smith at 14/1 (Pokerbet)
Posted 29 Nov 07h38
I’m kicking things off with a Last Try Scorer play for the Springboks. The market hasn’t moved since the previous update, and Kwagga Smith appeals at 14/1. He’ll be coming off the bench and has an excellent strike rate when it comes to crossing late in games. This should give us an interest right through to the final whistle.

I will be back later with a final play. 

BET: 3 units Wales +42.5 at 10/11 (BetXchange)

Posted 29 Nov 13h03

I’m not getting heavily involved in this one and have struggled to find a strong betting angle. To cover this handicap, Wales effectively need to stay within seven scores, and while I don’t expect them to genuinely trouble South Africa, they have shown some attacking intent in recent weeks.

If they can keep things reasonably tight and avoid the floodgates opening early, they can hang around long enough to land this number, with the Boks more likely to pull away later in the game.

Brent Graham's bets on this week’s URC matches will be posted on this blog.

Finally, all this week's rugby tips from members of the Goodforthegame community can be found on the weekly rugby thread on our brand new discussion forum. If you haven't done so already, register a forum account here.