In this blog Brent Graham takes a look at Super Rugby Week 2 from a betting angle with handicap projections, weather links, betting moves and ultimately a bet in each game.
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BRUMBIES v FORCE
Posted 22 Feb 08h16
Well down after the Canes game and will keep this short and sweet.
I think the Brumbies will score freely in good conditions and am backing them to score 37 or more.
BET: 4 units Brumbies over 36.5 at 17/20 at Sportingbet
HIGHLANDERS V BLUES
Posted 21 Feb 22h31
I have been battling with this game having set the handicap at Highlanders +5.5 only to see it open +10.5. This was one of those situations where I was wrong and in fact I am leaning Blues -11.5.
I was actually looking at unders on points at 55.5 and it is now 58.5 but these Super Rugby matches have been so open I cannot pull the trigger.
The Blues have names a strong side and it is just a small handicap interest for me
BET: 3 units Blues -11.5 at 10/11 at WSB
BOOKIES ADAPT TO HIGH SCORES
Posted 21 Feb 22h17
The points lines are on the move with the opening 64.5 long gone in the Canes game where I have now seen 70.5.
The line has also moved from 54.5 to 58.5 in the Blues game.
NOT THE TOURNAMENT FOR UNDERS
Posted 21 Feb 16h50
The Chiefs delivered the Monday play with an emphatic win but I gave some back on unders in that match and more on unders on Pasifika points. As someone who has traditionally been an overs player I am pretty annoyed with myself for chasing any form of unders in a tournament where defence really seems optional.
I will be back tonight with bets on the Highlanders and Brumbies games.
HURRICANES V DRUA
Posted 21 Feb 07h22
The money has come for the Canes this week with the opening -14.5 now out to -19.5. I am a bit worried the Canes don't have the depth of old and given I handicapped the match -16.5 I am going to sit the handicap out.
This is an afternoon kick off in what looks like being good conditions and that usually screams points. The thing is the line is 66.5 from an opening 64.5 and that looks about right.
Focusing in on the Drua they are a side who generally battle on the road (failed to score over 20 points in their last 5 away games last season) and I see they are 4/7 to score less than 3 tries and 17/20 to get under 23.5 points. I think the unders is the player here.
BET: 4 units Drua under 23.5 points at 17/20 at Sportingbet
FORUM BET
Posted 21 Feb 07h07
Plenty of different views from our rugby punters on the vers and unders in Chiefs ve Crusaders and I particulary like this play from Hanrick (The Understaker) - he goes Chiefs to win and under 57.5 points and I see there is 29/20 at Betxchange
REDS V MOANA PASIFIKA
Posted 20 Feb 23h03
This handicap opened -12.5 on Monday and has moved out to -16.5 in places.
The points line is high at 64.5 and while conditions look ok there is a threat of rain on the forecasts I have looked at.
On this weeks rugby betting show THE HANDICAP guest The Admiral made a strong case for taking Pasifika under 24.5 and I am in full agreement.
They are not a side that travels well and this side was strong in defence particulary at home last season.
BET: 4 units Pasifika under 24.5 points at 17/20 at Pokerbet
CHIEFS V CRUSADERS
Posted 20 Feb 22h44
The line moved very quickly after I took the Chiefs -3.5 back on Monday and I have decided to let the bet ride rather than hedge it.
I am going to assess the game based on current odds as if I was not already involved.
The handicap of -8.5 Chiefs is now exactly where I put it so I am not seeing alot of value there.
Recent matches between these sides have been high scoring but in what is a critical fixture for both teams the current points line of 56.5 just feels a point or two too high.
The bet I am leaning to though is under 7.5 tries as the Chiefs are a side that tends to take the 3 points early.
BET: 3 units under 7.5 tries at 17/20 at Sportingbet
WEATHER LINKS FOR WEEK 2
Posted 19 Feb 07h11
No betting movements to speak of at this stage but here are the links to the weekends weather. Before getting a bet down based on the forecast I suggest double checking with another weather website as these sites do get it wrong sometimes.
Chiefs v Crusaders Friday 08h05, FMG Stadium, Waikato (hybrid) - clear with some wind
Reds v Pasifika Friday 10h35, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (hybrid) - warm, possible rain
Hurricanes v Drua Saturday 05h35, McLean Park, Napier (rye grass on sand carpet) - moderate, sunny
Highlanders v Blues Saturday 08h05, Forsyth Barr Stadium (Turf) - under roof
Brumbies v Force Saturday 10h35, GIO Stadium, Canberra (Grass) - clear and dry
POINTS LINES ARE UP
Posted 18 Feb 07h46
Handicaps have been stable since the early moves and now we have points lines
Chiefs v Crusaders 55.5
Reds v Pasifika 60.5
Hurricanes v Drua 64.5
Highlanders v Blues 54.5
Brumbies v Force 57.5
Weather links will be up Wednesday
CHIEFS OUT TO -7.5
Posted 17 Feb 17h20
I have been on the road today so not sure how quickly it moved but the Chiefs are out to -7.5 from -3.5 and I will ponder any hedging moves and will post them here.
The other big mover is the Hurricanes out to -17.5 from -14.5 and now closer to my -16.5 projection.
AN EARLY MOVE
Posted 17 Feb 07h10
I am getting on the Chiefs early with aview to potentially hedging later in the week if as I suspect the line moves.
EARLY PLAY: 7 units Chiefs -3.5 at 19/20 at WSB
BOOKIES OUT EARLY WITH CAPS
Posted 17 Feb 07h07
The handicaps are out early and here is how Betxchange in brackets compare to my projections
A few large difference and my comments to the right
Chiefs -8.5 (-3.5) vs. Crusaders - I think this cap will move to around -6.5
Queensland Reds -14.5 (-12.5) vs. Moana Pasifika
Hurricanes -16.5 (-14.5) vs. Fijian Drua
Highlanders +5.5 (+10.5) vs. Blues - I think I got this one wrong
ACT Brumbies -10.5 vs. (-14.5) Western Force - also thinking I was a bit short on this one
WEEK 2 HANDICAP PROJECTIONS
Posted 16 Feb 21h32
Regulars on Goodforthegame will know I like to handicap games myself before the bookies come out. I am not trying to predict the final margin but rather where I think the market should be.
If there is a big difference between my spread and the bookie it might after some analyses be a sign to have an early bet.
Chiefs -8.5 vs. Crusaders
Queensland Reds -14.5 vs. Moana Pasifika
Hurricanes -16.5 vs. Fijian Drua
Highlanders +5.5 vs. Blues
ACT Brumbies -10.5 vs. Western Force
WEEK 1 WRAP AND LATEST OUTRIGHT BETTING
Posted 16 Feb 17h04
It was a weekend for overs backers with 4 of the 5 matches high scoring.
WEEK 1 RESULTS
Friday 14 February 2025
- Crusaders 33 – 25 Hurricanes -Crusaders looked in trouble early but took control to beat the -3.5 handicap
- NSW Waratahs 37 – 36 Highlanders - Highlanders +7.5 backers were never in doubt but the Waratahs scored a converted try in the last minute to win
Saturday 15 February 2025
- Fijian Drua 32 – 36 ACT Brumbies - everytime I looked up a try was scored. The lead changed hands multiple times and game started level with bookies
- Blues 14 – 25 Chiefs - game of the weekend and brilliant "D" from both sides - Chiefs were the better side
- Western Force 45 – 44 Moana Pasifika - heartbreak for Pasifika as Force string together around 30 phases to score belter from their own half to win
OUTRIGHT BETTING UPDATE - with WSB
Blues – 9/4
Chiefs – 9/4
Crusaders – 11/2
Hurricanes – 13/2
Brumbies – 8/1
Reds – 14/1
Waratahs – 14/1
Fijian Drua – 25/1
Highlanders – 33/1
Western Force – 66/1
Moana Pasifika – 150/1
I will be back tonight with projected handicaps.
