South Africa and Argentina meet in Durban on Saturday in the final Rugby Championship match and South Africa will know exactly what they need to do to win the competition.
The odds are stacked against the Springboks who are currently level on points with New Zealand, but 13 points behind on the points difference that means that they have to match whatever New Zealand do against Australia and beat Argentina by 13 more points. The result from earlier in the day is going to have a big bearing on the Springboks mind set and game plan and if Australia can stop New Zealand getting a bonus point the Boks will know that they have to score three tries more than Argentina and win the match to win the title. If on the other hand New Zealand gets the bonus point win then it is going to be all about chasing what will be a very big winning margin.
The betting going into the weekend sees the All Blacks 11/20 favourites ahead of the Springboks 16/10 and you can get 66/1 about the Wallabies.
Argentina actually have a mathematical chance of winning, but there aren’t enough zero’s on your calculator to accurately reflect their odds of doing that.
Last week’s match in Argentina was a game of two halves with South Africa starting strongly and building a big lead only for Argentina to get back into the game and within two points in the second-half and with South Africa down a man it actually looked as though Argentina might make a miraculous comeback having been 25/1 at half-time. South Africa though managed to get the two tries they required for the bonus point in the last few minutes and that means they will have everything to play for heading into this one.
Looking at South Africa’s previous home games they had two matches against New Zealand, winning in Nelspruit and then very disappointingly going down in Johannesburg, a game which in retrospect had they won would have seen them cruise to the Rugby Championship title.
Argentina’s two away games was in New Zealand and the first of those was probably the greatest game they have ever played, a 25-18 victory over the All Blacks, but they came back down to earth with a bang the week after going down by 50 points to a fired up New Zealand side.
In 2021 Argentina played 2 matches in South Africa both in Port Elizabeth and they lost by 19 points and 20 points.
BETTING – Click here to bet
South Africa 1/12
Draw 45/1
Argentina 9/1
Handicap: South Africa -17.5
Suggested Bet: Over 50.5 points at 19/20
Yes, this is Durban not a historically high scoring ground, but South Africa have absolutely no option but to go for points here and that style of play could well lead to Argentina getting a few of their own. Unless the weather is really terrible I think we are in for an entertaining game and the current handicap of 17.5 points, South Africa favourite looks about right.
There will also be plenty of Exotic markets available closer to kick off such as First Try Scorer, Anytime Try Scorer and these are great to get involved in particularly if you don’t have a strong feel for either the handicap or the points line.
Click here for all of the Rugby Championship and Domestic Markets over the weekend
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
