All Football Tips w/c 16th September

Don't see a preview for this match on the boards so, for what it's worth, here is my take
Aston Villa v West Ham United
Home 17/10 Draw 49/20 Away 16/10
This is another of those matches where the books seem to have priced-up everything spot on. Sadly this is happening too often for my liking recently. Villa have scored in both their home matches and West Ham in both their aways. I like the look of this Haller fellow and Anderson and Lanzini have enough quality to lay on the chances. The Villa defense has not quite adapted to the EPL yet. Worth a shout on Haller ATGS @ 14/10. The market I'm going for I would rate 9/10 choice so taking the slightly better price on offer
West Ham to score over 1.5 goals @ 21/20

I know RWC fever has hit the boards but there is the little matter of (In my opinion) the best football tournament in the world starting tomorrow. Herewith my two pennies worth.
Leipzig have started well in the Bundesliga and Group G is about as weak as you can get. I can't see Leverkusen getting past Juve and Atletico Madrid and Dortmund are going to have problems with Inter in Group E. This could leave Bayern Munich and Leipzig as the only two German sides in the round of 16 where you take your chances.
Ajax made the semi's last year. They have lost their centre backs and sadly de Jong. Ten Hag is still the manager and they did put out Real Madrid and Juve in the knock-out stages. This experience should stand them in good stead. Downside is they have been drawn in a difficult group but I have high hopes that Lamps will be finding life managing in the EPL far more difficult than he anticipated and will be needing the A team in the league.
UEFA Champions League
Win
Ajax @ 65/1
Eliminated in Quarter Final Ajax @ 6/1
Top German side
Leipzig @ 7/1

Aston Villa v West Ham United
Was going to take the 21/20 for WHM over 1.5 goals but now down to 19/20 across all my books so just spending a few beers for the watch. Goals in this match could be anything from 0-6 so am taking smalls on
Match Goals
4-5 @ 21/10

UEFA Champions League
Busy day so will look at evening matches later. The two early matches do nothing for me on the goals side. Zenit don't travel well and I think Prague will struggle to find the net against Inter.
Lyon v Zenit
Match goals under 2.5 @ 11/10
and an early evening double
Inter and Lyon win @ 18/10

Chelsea v Valencia

watching with the Father in law so gonna get involved for a bit of interest. Like a Chelsea win @ 4/5 for an acca, but gonna go for the following at smaller stakes......

Chelsea to win @ 4/5 ( include in an acca )
Chelsea -1 @ 2/1

Well that Zenit goal takes out one of my bets and most likely both.
UEFA Champoins League
Statistically the goal game this evening has to be Salzburg - but as we know stats don't mean s***t when it comes to practicalities. I am going to go for it though
Salzburg v Genk
Match Goals
Over 3.5 @ evens 2 units
Over 4.5 @ 22/10 1 unit
and an over 2.5 match goals acca (Hope ZA Punter is right on the Chelsea match)
Salzburg/Ajax/Chelsea/Dortmund @ 44/10

Did OK last night. Made the three bets and lost the beers double and acca. Really should stop losing beers but what the heck
UEFA Champions League
Win treble
Brugge/Leverkusen/Bayern @ 16/10

The two early matches do not appeal but fancy a couple on the later matches. Will post after sundowners.

Olympiakos v Tottenham

Great call on the overs, Vann. Done and dusted before half time. Like the look of the Spurs line up. Rose and Aurier reduces the attacking threat down the flanks but I like midfield 5 combination. Can't see Spurs losing this ( famous last words ) but Olympiakos are no mugs at home. Will settle on the following....

Spurs to score 2 or more @ 10/11

Extended sundowners owing to classy weather on the coast in SA. Shahktar did not score against Man City over two legs last season but if Norwich can put three past them I see them sneaking something. Hard to find the goals game this evening so I am going out on a limb here with an Italian side.
Shahktar Donesk v Man City
BTTS yes and Man City @ 16/10
Dinamo Zagreb v Atalanta
Over 3.5 match goals @ 2/1

UEFA Europa League Outrights
A couple for me usually followed with a top-up later when the Champions League third places drop down. Porto have loads of european experience and they beat Benfica 2-0 away a couple of weeks ago. PSV have run Ajax close recently so a nibble on them.
Win
Porto @ 25/1 (Probably 5 points higher then I would cap them - this at WSB)
PSV @ 34/1

A few beers for channel hopping on the Europa League this evening
Over 2.5 match goals
Rennes v Celtic into
St Liege v Guimaraes @ 3/1

Looks like the early watch beers are going down the tubes so here is the evening beers
Europa League
BTTS - Yes
Man Utd/Roma/Rangers @ 52/10

Southampton v Bournemouth
Many pundits see this as a derby but it is not viewed that way by the fans for the simple reason that these two clubs have operated in different leagues over the 100 plus years of their existence ( Only played each other 38 times ). The Southampton derby is Portsmouth. This evening we have Chris Kavanagh as a referee - a man who is traditionally allergic to pulling out cards - 3 in 3 EPL matches so far this season. Two for me on this match
Yellow cards under 2.5 @ 22/10
Score draw @ 57/20

Following all the wrong picks on the rugby boards so two for me on a sport I at least know a small amount about
Leicester v Spurs
Match bet and Total
Spurs and over 2.5 goals @ 24/10
ATGS Son @ 21/10

The "Hail Mary" footie acca for this afternoon
All to Win
Wycombe
Leeds
Notts Forest
Everton
Newcastle
Comes in @ just on 29/1

Leicester v Tottenham

Kane to score and over 2.5 goals @ 13/5

Liverpool over 1.5 goal @ 7/10 or win @ evens....tough choice but prefer latter.

Liverpool win @ evens

Quality call yesterday Stokes. Mackem and myself contesting the punting wooden spoon this week and I believe I am ahead. Courier delivered a parcel from my book this morning - was a box of tissues.
Trying a few this pm at shorter then my normal odds
Palace v Wolves
The Europa League has knocked the stuffing out of Wolves and their defense looks awful - never a better time to play them
Palace win @ 17/10
West Ham v Man Utd
Neither side look prolific and was thinking ManU under 1.5 goals but 15/20 too skinny. Goimg with
Match goals 2-3 @ 21/20
Arsenal v Villa
Villa defense starting to come right but still fancy Arsenal will get a couple
Arsenal goals 2-3 @ 21/20
and a few beers on first and last goal scorer
Aubameyang @ 57/20

Get The Arsenal and Spurs matches live this evening so will probably have a few beers on them but do see some value in this
EFL Cup
Portsmouth v Southampton
Kevin Friend not great for bookings bets but I think he has his hands full trying to keep this local derby under five as these sides have not met since 2012 when Swarbrick managed to limit the cards to eight in the 90 minutes.
Over 4.5 match bookings @ 19/10

The Vann wrote: Get The Arsenal and Spurs matches live this evening so will probably have a few beers on them but do see some value in this
EFL Cup
Portsmouth v Southampton
Kevin Friend not great for bookings bets but I think he has his hands full trying to keep this local derby under five as these sides have not met since 2012 when Swarbrick managed to limit the cards to eight in the 90 minutes.
Over 4.5 match bookings @ 19/10

Cheers, I assume that's >4.5 yellow cards as offered by Sportingbet (so a red wouldn't count). Still seems reasonably high given spreads of 42-46. Had a look round and found >4.5 cards at 12/5 with 888 (total yellow and red cards shown) so I've played that with a top up on >2.5 home cards at 13/5 and >2.5 away cards at 27/10.

Only fair to point out that the other league meeting in that last season saw just 2 yellow cards but, all things considered, these prices seem generous for tonight's game. Other prices that look ok are 6/4 >40 points PP and 20+ points each team at 15/8 Fred.

harry_rag wrote:

The Vann wrote: Get The Arsenal and Spurs matches live this evening so will probably have a few beers on them but do see some value in this
EFL Cup
Portsmouth v Southampton
Kevin Friend not great for bookings bets but I think he has his hands full trying to keep this local derby under five as these sides have not met since 2012 when Swarbrick managed to limit the cards to eight in the 90 minutes.
Over 4.5 match bookings @ 19/10

Cheers, I assume that's >4.5 yellow cards as offered by Sportingbet (so a red wouldn't count). Still seems reasonably high given spreads of 42-46. Had a look round and found >4.5 cards at 12/5 with 888 (total yellow and red cards shown) so I've played that with a top up on >2.5 home cards at 13/5 and >2.5 away cards at 27/10.

Only fair to point out that the other league meeting in that last season saw just 2 yellow cards but, all things considered, these prices seem generous for tonight's game. Other prices that look ok are 6/4 >40 points PP and 20+ points each team at 15/8 Fred.

The 4.5 is match bookings - yellow or straight reds. Have joined you with the 2.5 team bookings where I got the identical odds. Now all we need is Kevin to be wearing new jocks with a scratchy label - most irritating - and we are home.

Well, he's got a 65 and a 95 to his name in 4 games this season so we might be lucky!

And the beers for the evening watch are going to
Colchester v Spurs
Hoping Colchester can sneak a goal but the 16/10 way too skinny so going for their goal to be scored in the first half
First Half/Second Half - BTTS
Yes/No @ 43/10
Arsenal v Notts Forest
Arsenal on the multi scores 2-1/3-1/4-1 @ 57/20