Super Rugby Aotearoa week 5, Australia Week 2

Opening #'s are from GGG

Crusaders -7.5 v Blues (BG was 7.5) tabnz -7.5
Hurricanes -10.5 v Highlanders - (BG was -5.5) tabnz -5.5
Rebels v Reds - 0 (BG was -.05) tabnz -1.5
Waratahs -13.5 v Force (BG went -8.5) tabnz -8.5

BG almost identical to tabnz! TAB AU had not posted on Western Force as at this time! Cheers 3P

Decent strike on Tahs -8.5 @ $1.73

Line has moved up to -9.5 @ $1.87 since I started researching Western Force.

Western Force played only one game of Global Rapid Rugby before 2020 season was cancelled due to Covid 19.

Club rugby in Perth not exactly ideal prep for Super Rugby. A few old Wallabies are returning from Northern Hemisphere, but need way more. Old stars Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell who were still playing overseas pre-covid, have not put up their hands. No where near enough time to prepare for Super Rugby, even AU level. Veteran ex AB Thrushy, now 35, is still locking and is a spokesperson? Predicting 20+ Tahs victory, more if they get their injured backs back. Must go check massacre odds. Cheers 3P

Crusaders -7.5
Stig pick: Crusaders by 11

Highlanders +5.5
Stig pick: Hurricanes by 3

Rebels -1.5
Stig pick: Rebels by 3

Force +10.5
Stig pick: Waratahs by 8

Highlanders now +6.5 so getting better, worth waiting a bit on this.

Strong winds and 45% chance of rain predicted for Sunday's game in Wellington, Betx has got a points line of 55.5, only twice in 2020 Aotearoa scores went over this line, both were dry games in good conditions and involving the Crusaders (hur 25-39 cru rnd 2 wellington; & high 20-40 cru rnd 4 dunedin under the roof). If the weather prediction holds I will be climbing into the under 55.5.

TheBettingStig wrote: Highlanders now +6.5 so getting better, worth waiting a bit on this.

Noted the line starting to shift, I'm in the other camp, taken Canes -5 @ 1.91

Smashed Waratahs -5.5 when it opened earlier today, I think the line should be around -15.5 myself

Rubber stamping you Stig with the under 55.5 in hurricanes v highlanders game.

Also taking under 55.5 in saders v blues - effectively a final!

Am I missing something. I dont see total points offered on their own with those respective sites

Nevermind, found them

TheBettingStig wrote: Highlanders now +6.5 so getting better, worth waiting a bit on this.

Strong winds and 45% chance of rain predicted for Sunday's game in Wellington, Betx has got a points line of 55.5, only twice in 2020 Aotearoa scores went over this line, both were dry games in good conditions and involving the Crusaders (hur 25-39 cru rnd 2 wellington; & high 20-40 cru rnd 4 dunedin under the roof). If the weather prediction holds I will be climbing into the under 55.5.

Logic of the generally low scoring games in Aotearoa definitely makes sense re unders this weekend, but would be cautious about reading too much into weather forecasts this far ahead as a basis for unders. I don’t know why but the local NZ reputable weather sites have been wide of the mark a fair bit lately, even up to the day before game.

southpaw wrote: Logic of the generally low scoring games in Aotearoa definitely makes sense re unders this weekend, but would be cautious about reading too much into weather forecasts this far ahead as a basis for unders. I don’t know why but the local NZ reputable weather sites have been wide of the mark a fair bit lately, even up to the day before game.

Correct it's not very reliable so far in advance. I just have memories of that strong Wellington wind, Lions Canes final 2016 comes to mind, on the day it was 49km/h and made kicking poles and touch extremely difficult. This Sunday's prediction is for 45km/h.

Reds 1-12 @ 22/10.

Game is in Sydney, no home advantage for Rebels. Reds do need to fly in on day but 90min flight, no problem there.

Has anybody been refunded their ante post bets on 2020 super rugby?

kompos wrote: Has anybody been refunded their ante post bets on 2020 super rugby?

Yep - Placed with two SA books and both have refunded.

The betting algorithms for the Tahs v Force are as follows:

StatsChat Tahs -7.9, Rugby4Cast Tahs by 3, RugbyVision Tahs by 6, Betting Stig Tahs +10.5

Last game for the Force was a 51- 14 thumping of the Malaysian Valke on March 14, 2020 and they have been out of Super Rugby since 2017. Thats what I said, Malaysian who? None of the algorithms make a disclaimer for a lack of information.
How is that possible Stig? Tahs have a got a lot of 2019 U20 Wallabies coming through and have their U20 coach as a backs coach at the Tahs. Battle ready from Reds game. Cannot see how this is not a Turkey shoot. Home advantage has got to be 7 points. Line is still -9.5. I have added some -13.5 & -20.5.

I have not done much work on the weather for Wellington yet, as tab nz does not give us a crack at unders until day before kick off.

NZ Weather forecast for Wellington for Sunday is 13%, -0- Rain, Wind 23k, possible gust 32k. Met Sevice NZ is similar.
Average wind in Wellywood is 27! Making it a great day! Cheers 3P

Opposing you there 3P. Force will cover the double digit spread.

threepeat wrote: The betting algorithms for the Tahs v Force are as follows:

StatsChat Tahs -7.9, Rugby4Cast Tahs by 3, RugbyVision Tahs by 6, Betting Stig Tahs +10.5

Last game for the Force was a 51- 14 thumping of the Malaysian Valke on March 14, 2020 and they have been out of Super Rugby since 2017. Thats what I said, Malaysian who? None of the algorithms make a disclaimer for a lack of information.
How is that possible Stig? Tahs have a got a lot of 2019 U20 Wallabies coming through and have their U20 coach as a backs coach at the Tahs. Battle ready from Reds game. Cannot see how this is not a Turkey shoot. Home advantage has got to be 7 points. Line is still -9.5. I have added some -13.5 & -20.5.

I have not done much work on the weather for Wellington yet, as tab nz does not give us a crack at unders until day before kick off.

NZ Weather forecast for Wellington for Sunday is 13%, -0- Rain, Wind 23k, possible gust 32k. Met Sevice NZ is similar.
Average wind in Wellywood is 27! Making it a great day! Cheers 3P

You really try to be hated by every person on the forum. So bothered with everyone else's bets. Stop worrying about other people's bets and views on the weather and concentrate in your own bets.

If you don't know the Valke you clearly don't follow South African rugby. They're a tough side.

Cheers H

hanrick wrote:

threepeat wrote:
Last game for the Force was a 51- 14 thumping of the Malaysian Valke on March 14, 2020 and they have been out of Super Rugby since 2017.
Cheers 3P

If you don't know the Valke you clearly don't follow South African rugby. They're a tough side.

Cheers H

Something wrong here. Valke are a tuff SA side for sure, but a Malaysian Valke ? Can't be. Valke is an Afrikaans word so no Malaysian side would use it, would they ? Also, no SA side has played rugby in March.
But I'm in 3P's camp - I think the Tahs will take it by 13+

Maybe that Malaysian Viakiakins are an under 15 school side ?

Cheers Kirky

Easy

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Valke

hanrick wrote:
You really try to be hated by every person on the forum. So bothered with everyone else's bets. Stop worrying about other people's bets and views on the weather and concentrate in your own bets.

If you don't know the Valke you clearly don't follow South African rugby. They're a tough side.

Cheers H

I fail to see that I have offended anyone by the text you have quoted! I have provided information on two NZ sites informative on Wellywood weather for Sunday's Canes game. They are not my opinion. They are factual.

Clearly I follow Springbok and SA Super Rugby. I remember opposing you in last years RWC when I was betting on the Springboks.
I agree that I do not follow Global Rapid Rugby or Currie Cup, preferring local Mitre 10 Competition at that level.

The only other punter voicing an opinion on the Western Force agrees with my view, he went with +15.5

I like the bet and was looking for other punters opinions for better or worse.There are a few unknowns and risks. Have no problem with anyone being critical, except with you, who chooses to make it personal. I do not remember contradicting your failure to respect Razor Robinson's Coaching and the might of the Crusaders last week. Judging by your betting madness on the Landers last week, it is in fact you who does not understand New Zealand Rugby, Players, Coaches, Crowd and Weather conditions. Cheers 3P

Quill wrote: Easy

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Valke

Oh CRAP. My apologies everyone. And they've got a prop called Primo Ncube looks like from Namibia...
Ok, no more from me

Also gonna rethink my 13+
K.

I am in the Under points train with both NZ derbies. The Saders and the Blues are the best of the lot. Two strong teams and remember in the Mitre cup,Auckland played very good against this saders team. Blues on the Plus also a runner.

Agreed with Force on the plus. Australians derbies always in the 1-10 points range difference.(Most of the time)

I have a couple of minor bets on Pro 14 with WSB(Cheetahs) With the restructuring they have been virtually eliminated from those top 2 spots instead of top 3 for the play-offs.
They don't reply to my query so I take it there's no refund.Thing is if they were top of he table then they might have cancelled the bets as other books have done.

Also noting the weather prediction is getting better but that could also still change this far out. Either way, even in good conditions I would still be happy on the under 55.5 for the other reasons given.

Here's a handy link for New Zealand weather going forward guys, use the slider to check the cloud and rainfall systems in the upcomimg 5 days at any given time.

www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain/forecast/5-days

Looks like the heavy rains will only arrive in Wellington on Monday, have a look at Monday midday.

Brazil wrote: I have a couple of minor bets on Pro 14 with WSB(Cheetahs) With the restructuring they have been virtually eliminated from those top 2 spots instead of top 3 for the play-offs.
They don't reply to my query so I take it there's no refund.Thing is if they were top of he table then they might have cancelled the bets as other books have done.

I also have some long term Super Rugby bets with WSB that they are also not refunding yet...they just send the below response on email.

"Thank you for contacting WSB.
The bets still stand as there is no full feedback on the tournament, as soon as we get feedback we will result accordingly.
Please do not hesitate in contacting us should you require any further assistance."

good luck with wsb, Zambusta - glad I don't have to suffer those wankers anymore
I managed to convince those other fly-by-nights (supabets) to refund my bets - don't know why there are still bookies that think your money simply belongs to them

Rebels vs Reds
I m gonna stick with my first half being the highest scoring half @ 2
Adding Rebels + 1.5 @ 1.91 and ML @ 2.10

It must be noted that the Western Force did play a whole season of NRC last year, and the footage from a lot of those games are on YouTube. They did win the comp, but the NRC is a huge step down from super rugby level, Southland from the Mitre 10 cup would probably win that comp.

Small play on the following bet as not sure why odds are that high
Rebels first to 10 @ 2.20
Rebels first to 20 @ 2.28
Rebels to score first @ 1.98
All on 888

Bet 1: Over 51.0 points @1.80
Bet 2: Rebels @2.05

under 52.5pts @ 5/6. Raining.

In full agreement with Couch, cant see the Force living with the Tahs tomorrow, have taken some -10 @ 1.91

Betfair have some over the odds quotes on Mark Nawaqanitawase to score which I've filled up on:
Any time @ 2.10
Double @ 5.5
Hat trick @ 20 (as short as 5.5 elsewhere)

Blues over 19.5 points @ 9/10

Damn Blues. First punting losing game for 2 weeks. Thought they played well despite loss.

Waratahs over 15.5 1st half Points
Waratahs over 31.5 points
Tahs with both halves.

All 3 bets just under evens each.

A game I initially little interest in watching and suddenly about to give back most of last weeks profit. Dreadful waratahs, truly the crappest coached team out there.

threepeat wrote: The betting algorithms for the Tahs v Force are as follows:

StatsChat Tahs -7.9, Rugby4Cast Tahs by 3, RugbyVision Tahs by 6, Betting Stig Tahs +10.5

Last game for the Force was a 51- 14 thumping of the Malaysian Valke on March 14, 2020 and they have been out of Super Rugby since 2017. Thats what I said, Malaysian who? None of the algorithms make a disclaimer for a lack of information.
How is that possible Stig? Tahs have a got a lot of 2019 U20 Wallabies coming through and have their U20 coach as a backs coach at the Tahs. Battle ready from Reds game. Cannot see how this is not a Turkey shoot. Home advantage has got to be 7 points. Line is still -9.5. I have added some -13.5 & -20.5.

giphy.com/gifs/burgerrecords-whites-of-t...9D4dI7I2EBeTY2c?tc=1

The Tah's are absolute crap, as South mentioned ..the worst coached team in Aus. Shockingly little talent as well.

threepeat wrote: Decent strike on Tahs -8.5 @ $1.73

Betting Stig wrote giphy.com/gifs/burgerrecords-whites-of-t...9D4dI7I2EBeTY2c?tc=1

This is a clear and obvious breach of GFTG ethical standards against personal attacks / blog bullying. Maybe acceptable in clicky SA, but not on a show that aspires to attract international punters and a variety of opinions.

Game itself was much closer than expected but mainly because Tahs were poor.

As a statistician Stig you have chosen to throw eggs (very childish and inappropriate behaviour) but being a statistician your simple math should be far better. My main bet of Stike on Tahs -8.5 landed nicely Covered smaller bets with a nice in game strike on Tahs -.05 when the score was Tahs 7 - 14.

Stig, my original post was merely an inquiry about the methodology of algorithms when you have limited information. I noted that all four algorithms came up with the same. There was no intention to Stigmatize you. It was an ask for information/ help. Frankly, your egg throwing behaviour is mysterious (will work om whose alta-ego you are).

Hanrick I see you choose to applaud. How is that going for you from inside your glass house?, from which you achieved the Grand Slam of Losses in Super Rugby Aotearoa/ AU in Round 4/1. Yes 0-4, recorded on tape! No picks this week for anyone to egg!

SOAP, lads I see you have joined the inappropriate chorus. My posts on HUMIDITY in Dunedin and Canberra being a NIGHT game were factually correct. You had posted mis-information in both cases, and due to your exceptional record in 7's punting I was concerned that some punters would follow without knowing the real info. I was helping you. Yet, you are still bragging about your overs win in Canberra, even though you called it on the basis of a day game.

Titiro whakamuri, Kokiri whakamua Cheers 3P

Relax 3P just poking a bit of fun at you. You dish it out week after week, maybe just learn how to take it as well now and then.

For the algorithm's prediction on the Tahs game,
I used information on the Force as per Rugbypass player and team ratings and weighted it with a couple of other factors. Not great but better than nothing.

Note, the algorithm called 2 games on the dot, and the others within 1 and 3. So it's pretty accurate at this stage..

Crusaders by 10 (actual 11)
Rebels by 3 (actual 0)
Waratahs by 9 (actual 9)
Hurricanes by 6 (actual 6)